Hyperliquid · cross-venue tool — comparing every venue, not just Hyperliquid. Hyperliquid ↗

HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

BLUR

BLUR-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-blur · fresh · feed 5s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 0.38%
realized vol (ann.)
51.01%
max drawdown
1.32%
sharpe
-29.49
ulcer index
0.69%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.54%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-2193.31
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.23%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.94
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1228.14
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.94
upside/downside
roll spread
0.4 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
0.38%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-44.44%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 40%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 22.3bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-blur/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH4.5s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.016
24h Δ · live
0.38%
24h vol · live
$0.3M
BLUR · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0158 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0156, 0.0161] · R²=0.098▲ RISING +0.35%σ LOW 0.63%LAST 0.01570.01610.01600.01590.01580.0156μ = 0.0158max 0.0161min 0.0156dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.10μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.02
Funding direction · live
Long fee 49.5%Short fee 50.5%SHORT FEE50.5%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.01% (99.99pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 1.000 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
49.5%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
50.5%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.005073% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=18,840,187 · μ=753607.5 · σ=456292.8 · CV=0.61STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=140610,9371,221,8741,832,8112,443,748μ = 7536072,443,74850%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 2443748 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
4.5s
$mark $
$0.0157
$mid $
$0.0157
◉prev-day close
$0.0156
Δ24h Δ %
+0.384%
$24h vol $
$289.48k
◐open interest $
$504.05k
%funding (1h)
-0.005073%
%funding (yr)
-44.44%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0158 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0156, 0.0161] · R²=0.098▲ RISING +0.35%σ LOW 0.63%LAST 0.01570.01610.01600.01590.01580.0156μ = 0.0158max 0.0161min 0.0156dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.10μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0157 · 24h 0.38% · range $[0.0156, 0.0161]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 15 · down 10 (60% up) · range [0.0156, 0.0162] · σ=0.0001 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=42%CONSOLIDATINGCLOSE 0.0157 vs OPEN 0.0157 (+0.03%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.01570.01620.01600.01590.01570.0156μ close = 0.0158O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.32%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.32%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.99%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.99%)2.0%O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+1.96%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+1.96%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-1.59%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-1.59%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.22%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.22%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.18%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.18%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.40%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.40%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.00%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.00%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.32%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.32%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.33%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.33%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.26%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.26%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.08%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.08%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.21%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.21%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.38%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.38%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.01%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.01%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.51%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.51%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.48%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.48%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.70%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.70%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.40%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.40%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.17%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.17%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.96%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.96%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.17%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.17%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.28%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.28%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.43%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.43%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.39%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.39%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=18,840,187 · μ=753607.5 · σ=456292.8 · CV=0.61STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=140610,9371,221,8741,832,8112,443,748μ = 7536071,013,134 · 41.5% peak1,013,134 · 41.5% peak600,524 · 24.6% peak600,524 · 24.6% peak846,341 · 34.6% peak846,341 · 34.6% peak829,668 · 34.0% peak829,668 · 34.0% peak710,680 · 29.1% peak710,680 · 29.1% peak979,265 · 40.1% peak979,265 · 40.1% peak997,124 · 40.8% peak997,124 · 40.8% peak640,015 · 26.2% peak640,015 · 26.2% peak1,022,590 · 41.8% peak1,022,590 · 41.8% peak415,175 · 17.0% peak415,175 · 17.0% peak247,601 · 10.1% peak247,601 · 10.1% peak336,210 · 13.8% peak336,210 · 13.8% peak282,512 · 11.6% peak282,512 · 11.6% peak933,012 · 38.2% peak933,012 · 38.2% peak1,066,594 · 43.6% peak1,066,594 · 43.6% peak339,780 · 13.9% peak339,780 · 13.9% peak987,634 · 40.4% peak987,634 · 40.4% peak2,443,7482,443,748 · 100.0% peak2,443,748 · 100.0% peak908,275 · 37.2% peak908,275 · 37.2% peak835,866 · 34.2% peak835,866 · 34.2% peak448,235 · 18.3% peak448,235 · 18.3% peak871,212 · 35.7% peak871,212 · 35.7% peak617,709 · 25.3% peak617,709 · 25.3% peak328,350 · 13.4% peak328,350 · 13.4% peak138,933 · 5.7% peak138,933 · 5.7% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 18840187 · peak 2443748 · CV 0.61

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0002 · σ=0.0067 · skew=1.02 (right-skewed) · kurt=2.81 (leptokurtic (fat tails))75420 1-148.37bpbin -148.37bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -148.37bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak-115.30bp 1-82.24bpbin -82.24bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -82.24bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 6-49.17bpbin -49.17bp · n=6 · 85.7% peakbin -49.17bp · n=6 · 85.7% peak 5-16.11bpbin -16.11bp · n=5 · 71.4% peakbin -16.11bp · n=5 · 71.4% peak 716.96bpbin 16.96bp · n=7 · 100.0% peakbin 16.96bp · n=7 · 100.0% peak 150.02bpbin 50.02bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 50.02bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 283.09bpbin 83.09bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin 83.09bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak116.15bp149.22bp182.29bp 1215.35bpbin 215.35bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 215.35bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.87 · kurt=3.06 · near 17 / mid 6 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.97 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0157
Mid price
$0.0157
24h change
+0.38%
Mark–mid spread
1.91 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0156

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25MILD DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL
μ MEAN0.0158$95% CI: [0.0158$, 0.0159$]
σ STD DEV0.0001$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.63%
med MEDIAN0.0159$Q₁ 0.0158$ · Q₃ 0.0159$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0005$ · IQR 0.0001$ (1.349σ→0.0001$)
min 0.0156$Q₁ 0.0158$med 0.0159$Q₃ 0.0159$max 0.0161$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.480approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.716leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.19
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.30
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 5.19
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDGOOD · SR=1.88
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.014644%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.020
σᵣ STD / h0.730672%σ²ᵣ = 0.534×10⁻⁴ · CV = 49.90×
σ ANNUALISED68.39%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.731%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)1.88good · industry threshold
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)2.25strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)44.53exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.93right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂4.10leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside drag · negatively skewedSoR / SR = 1.20
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 44.53
EXPECTED EDGE+128.28%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.86%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.857%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.478%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.277%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.88%22h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.857%VaR₉₉−1.478%ES₉₅−1.277%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 22h duration
PEAK1.61$
−2.88% drawdown over 22h
1.57$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.49× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONextreme-tail dominated · severe outliersratio = 1.72× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.97% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
48.0 · neutral
Bollinger %B
-0.060 · below lower band
Bollinger upper
$0.0160
Bollinger MA
$0.0158
Bollinger lower
$0.0157

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.181within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.152lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.920strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-1.580fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.920
H = 0.920STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.181k=2-0.152k=3-0.051k=4-0.010k=5+0.0870+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.58)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.58)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$289.48k
Open interest (USD)
$504.05k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.57x
1h funding
-0.005073%
Funding (annualised)
-44.44%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
2.743× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
1.371× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
0.686×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.32% · worst -1.65% · typical |Δ| 0.48%MILD BULLISH +0.35%BEST+2.32%13hWORST-1.65%14hTYPICAL |Δ|0.48%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.35%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.11% · Σ -0.89%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.15% · Σ +1.16%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.01% · Σ +0.08%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.35%+3.27%0.00%0.96% · 12h0.96% · 12h0.96%12h2.32% · 13h2.32% · 13h2.32%13h★ BEST-1.65% · 14h-1.65% · 14h-1.65%14h▼ WORST-0.03% · 15h-0.03% · 15h-0.03%15h-0.10% · 16h-0.10% · 16h-0.10%16h0.15% · 17h0.15% · 17h0.15%17h-0.08% · 18h-0.08% · 18h-0.08%18h0.14% · 19h0.14% · 19h0.14%19h0.33% · 20h0.33% · 20h0.33%20h-0.40% · 21h-0.40% · 21h-0.40%21h-0.15% · 22h-0.15% · 22h-0.15%22h0.18% · 23h0.18% · 23h0.18%23h-0.42% · 00h-0.42% · 00h-0.42%00h-0.01% · 01h-0.01% · 01h-0.01%01h-0.59% · 02h-0.59% · 02h-0.59%02h0.51% · 03h0.51% · 03h0.51%03h0.76% · 04h0.76% · 04h0.76%04h-0.42% · 05h-0.42% · 05h-0.42%05h0.17% · 06h0.17% · 06h0.17%06h-0.90% · 07h-0.90% · 07h-0.90%07h0.21% · 08h0.21% · 08h0.21%08h0.25% · 09h0.25% · 09h0.25%09h-0.46% · 10h-0.46% · 10h-0.46%10h-0.45% · 11h-0.45% · 11h-0.45%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.16%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 2.32% · worst -1.65% · typical |Δ| 0.484%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.29%FINAL+0.29%MAX DD-2.91%RECOVERYONGOING · 22 barsMAX RUN-UP+3.30%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0029 · peak 1.0330 · range [1.0000, 1.0330]1.03301.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0330UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.91% · moderate0%-2.91%▼ TROUGH -2.91%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -2.91%bar 4-25 · 22 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.91%)RECOVERYongoing · 22 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 1.0029 (0.29%) · max DD -2.91% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +10 / −9 (53% positive) · μ=-7.94 · σ=26.16MIXED EDGELAST -38.47 (-1.17σ vs μ)75.0737.530.00-37.53-75.07μ = -7.9419.6519.657.607.60-35.17-35.1739.7339.733.463.460.380.381.861.86-15.26-15.26-23.69-23.69-75.07-75.07-18.78-18.7812.9912.99-4.44-4.4412.8412.84-11.11-11.118.398.392.032.03-37.72-37.72-38.47-38.47v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -38.471 · range [-75.07, 39.73] · μ -7.935 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=48.8872 · σ=29.0889 · range [15.7040, 122.6699] · R²=0.057▼ FALLING -63.71%σ EXTREME 59.50%LAST 44.5221122.669995.928469.186942.445515.7040μ = 48.8872max 122.6699min 15.7040dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.06μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 44.52% · range [15.70%, 122.67%] · μ 48.89% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.270 · σ=0.183MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.368 (-0.53σ vs μ)0.5870.2940.000-0.294-0.587μ = -0.270-0.210-0.210-0.452-0.452-0.031-0.031-0.003-0.003-0.387-0.387-0.136-0.136-0.175-0.175-0.257-0.257-0.513-0.513-0.433-0.433-0.587-0.5870.0380.038-0.134-0.134-0.236-0.236-0.175-0.175-0.173-0.173-0.390-0.390-0.505-0.505-0.368-0.368v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.368 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
3 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·3 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
20.2931
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
1.8727
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8672
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-3.9686
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0020
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.4555
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6487
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3113
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1624
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-2.1747
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0296
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneVR 0.338 → mean-reverting
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=5.21e-5 · top T=2.40h (20.0%) · top-3 cover 51.7%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.3e-49.4e-56.3e-53.1e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 7.25e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 24.0 · power 7.25e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 7.86e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 7.86e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.15e-5 · 9.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.15e-5 · 9.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.14e-5 · 1.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.14e-5 · 1.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.65e-5 · 13.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.65e-5 · 13.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.09e-4 · 17.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.09e-4 · 17.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 8.90e-5 · 14.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 8.90e-5 · 14.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.29e-5 · 8.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.29e-5 · 8.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.92e-6 · 0.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.92e-6 · 0.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.25e-4 · 20.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.25e-4 · 20.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.67e-5 · 7.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.67e-5 · 7.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.34e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.34e-5 · 3.7% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=4.00h#3T=3.43hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 20.0% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 6.256e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5256096 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.04%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.04%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-27.70×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -25.45400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.011
annualized -25.45
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -26.92σ ann 97% · Sortino -20.61 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-3230%-2561%-1892%-1222%-553%117%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)97.2%Ann. vol σ-2691.9%Sharpe (ann)-2060.5%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0150.0150.0160.0160.0170.017t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 11:39:38 UTC
Snapshot age
4.5s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 11:39:43 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
009ffcd90170c8b7a5d6b3aa5cf550df1e6529ee430ee44b64e5a2a9be54eb5a · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.5¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,674HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.83HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,726.5

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$2.07K
bid $381 · ask $1.69K
Depth within 10bp
$3.15K
bid $381 · ask $2.76K
Depth within 50bp
$73.15K
bid $61.76K · ask $11.39K
Mid price
0.015683
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
7.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.103
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.065
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-blur/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0156904.22bp0.0156902FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.01571621.29bp0.0157489FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.015944166.32bp0.01620020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0156707.97bp0.0156663FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.01565120.69bp0.01563910FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.01561841.17bp0.01547720PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-5.073e-5
-0.00507% / hr
Annualised APR
-44.469%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
8.2d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
8.2d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE44.469%8.2d82.1d
SHORTPAY-44.469%8.2d82.1d

/api/asset/hl-blur/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$18.84M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-blur/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.113 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$9.92M
real volume
Sell weight
$7.91M
real volume
Net delta
$2.01M
buyers net
Imbalance
11.30%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
11.3%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-blur/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 1.76% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-19 14:00:00Z2.0h0.016142→0.0158581.759%3
#22026-06-20 07:00:00Z1.0h0.015928→0.0157461.143%2
#32026-06-20 02:00:00Z0ms0.015887→0.0157271.007%1

/api/asset/hl-blur/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
97.17%
σ per bar = 0.000424
Mean return (annualised)
-2615.71%
μ per bar = -0.000005
Sharpe (rf=0)
-26.92
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
5.65%
peak 0.02 → trough 0.02 over 1583 bars

/api/asset/hl-blur/risk · same metrics, JSON