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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

SKR

SKR-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-skr · fresh · feed 24s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 2.67%
realized vol (ann.)
67.88%
max drawdown
0.88%
sharpe
86.37
ulcer index
0.33%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.22%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.04%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
17929.84
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.83%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.17
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
7063.79
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.17
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
614
store
spread
—
24h Δ
2.67%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 34%
  • 24h change +2.67%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 15.3bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-SKR/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING23.6s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.008
24h Δ · live
2.67%
24h vol · live
$0.0M
SKR · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0083 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0083, 0.0085] · R²=0.154▲ RISING +2.97%σ LOW 0.69%LAST 0.00850.00850.00840.00840.00830.0083μ = 0.0083max 0.0085min 0.0083dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.15μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.01
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=5,881,763 · μ=235270.5 · σ=162110.6 · CV=0.69RISING +57% h/hcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=160169,664339,329508,993678,657μ = 235271678,65750%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 678657 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
23.6s
$mark $
$0.0085
$mid $
$0.0085
◉prev-day close
$0.0083
Δ24h Δ %
+2.671%
$24h vol $
$48.57k
◐open interest $
$202.88k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0083 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0083, 0.0085] · R²=0.154▲ RISING +2.97%σ LOW 0.69%LAST 0.00850.00850.00840.00840.00830.0083μ = 0.0083max 0.0085min 0.0083dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.15μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0085 · 24h 2.67% · range $[0.0083, 0.0085]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [0.0082, 0.0086] · σ=0.0001 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=55%BULLISH +2.48%CLOSE 0.0085 vs OPEN 0.0083 (+2.48%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.00850.00860.00850.00840.00830.0082μ close = 0.0083O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.47%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.47%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.93%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.93%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.59%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.59%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.37%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.37%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.17%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.17%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.25%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.25%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.79%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.79%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.51%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.51%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.66%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.66%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.54%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.54%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.33%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.33%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.49%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.49%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.45%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.45%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.10%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.10%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.34%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.34%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.29%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.29%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.13%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.13%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.08%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.08%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.48%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.48%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.19%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.19%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.64%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.64%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.60%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.60%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.31%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.31%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.14%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.14%)0.9%O0.008 H0.009 L0.008 C0.009 (+0.94%)O0.008 H0.009 L0.008 C0.009 (+0.94%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=5,881,763 · μ=235270.5 · σ=162110.6 · CV=0.69RISING +57% h/hcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=160169,664339,329508,993678,657μ = 235271125,252 · 18.5% peak125,252 · 18.5% peak129,719 · 19.1% peak129,719 · 19.1% peak172,867 · 25.5% peak172,867 · 25.5% peak247,945 · 36.5% peak247,945 · 36.5% peak152,528 · 22.5% peak152,528 · 22.5% peak173,453 · 25.6% peak173,453 · 25.6% peak407,884 · 60.1% peak407,884 · 60.1% peak169,555 · 25.0% peak169,555 · 25.0% peak141,275 · 20.8% peak141,275 · 20.8% peak96,153 · 14.2% peak96,153 · 14.2% peak120,291 · 17.7% peak120,291 · 17.7% peak352,132 · 51.9% peak352,132 · 51.9% peak133,280 · 19.6% peak133,280 · 19.6% peak340,030 · 50.1% peak340,030 · 50.1% peak91,842 · 13.5% peak91,842 · 13.5% peak173,630 · 25.6% peak173,630 · 25.6% peak109,957 · 16.2% peak109,957 · 16.2% peak664,028 · 97.8% peak664,028 · 97.8% peak178,486 · 26.3% peak178,486 · 26.3% peak403,439 · 59.4% peak403,439 · 59.4% peak93,512 · 13.8% peak93,512 · 13.8% peak190,064 · 28.0% peak190,064 · 28.0% peak322,299 · 47.5% peak322,299 · 47.5% peak678,657678,657 · 100.0% peak678,657 · 100.0% peak213,485 · 31.5% peak213,485 · 31.5% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 5881763 · peak 678657 · CV 0.69

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0012 · σ=0.0048 · skew=0.22 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.94 (mesokurtic)43210 2-62.15bpbin -62.15bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -62.15bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 2-47.11bpbin -47.11bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -47.11bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 3-32.08bpbin -32.08bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -32.08bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 1-17.05bpbin -17.05bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -17.05bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 4-2.02bpbin -2.02bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -2.02bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 213.02bpbin 13.02bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 13.02bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 228.05bpbin 28.05bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 28.05bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 143.08bpbin 43.08bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 43.08bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 458.11bpbin 58.11bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 58.11bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 173.14bpbin 73.14bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 73.14bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak88.18bp 2103.21bpbin 103.21bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 103.21bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 14 · negative 10
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.24 · kurt=-0.80 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0085
Mid price
$0.0085
24h change
+2.67%
Mark–mid spread
3.53 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0083

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.94)
μ MEAN0.0083$95% CI: [0.0083$, 0.0084$]
σ STD DEV0.0001$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.69%
med MEDIAN0.0083$Q₁ 0.0083$ · Q₃ 0.0084$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0002$ · IQR 0.0001$ (1.349σ→0.0001$)
min 0.0083$Q₁ 0.0083$med 0.0083$Q₃ 0.0084$max 0.0085$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.944right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.361mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.33
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.10
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.24
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=22.15
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.121747%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.237
σᵣ STD / h0.514406%σ²ᵣ = 0.265×10⁻⁴ · CV = 4.23×
σ ANNUALISED48.15%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.514%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)22.15excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)27.07strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.25approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.70mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.22
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+1066.50%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.63%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.626%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.685%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.670%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN1.51%13h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.626%VaR₉₉−0.685%ES₉₅−0.670%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 13h duration
PEAK0.84$
−1.51% drawdown over 13h
0.83$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.07× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.09× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +1.53% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
70.1 · overbought
Bollinger %B
1.140 · above upper band
Bollinger upper
$0.0085
Bollinger MA
$0.0084
Bollinger lower
$0.0082

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.31 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.311within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.342lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.959strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+2.047significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.959
H = 0.959STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.311k=2+0.342k=3-0.061k=4-0.084k=5+0.3410+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.05)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.31 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.05)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$48.57k
Open interest (USD)
$202.88k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.24x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.11% · worst -0.70% · typical |Δ| 0.42%MILD BULLISH +2.92%BEST+1.11%08hWORST-0.70%09hTYPICAL |Δ|0.42%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+2.92%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 5up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.29% · Σ +2.31%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.21% · Σ +1.68%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.13% · Σ -1.06%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +2.92%+2.92%0.00%1.11% · 08h1.11% · 08h1.11%08h★ BEST-0.70% · 09h-0.70% · 09h-0.70%09h▼ WORST0.37% · 10h0.37% · 10h0.37%10h-0.24% · 11h-0.24% · 11h-0.24%11h0.14% · 12h0.14% · 12h0.14%12h1.09% · 13h1.09% · 13h1.09%13h-0.64% · 14h-0.64% · 14h-0.64%14h0.55% · 15h0.55% · 15h0.55%15h-0.52% · 16h-0.52% · 16h-0.52%16h0.33% · 17h0.33% · 17h0.33%17h-0.47% · 18h-0.47% · 18h-0.47%18h-0.32% · 19h-0.32% · 19h-0.32%19h0.01% · 20h0.01% · 20h0.01%20h-0.36% · 21h-0.36% · 21h-0.36%21h0.25% · 22h0.25% · 22h0.25%22h0.01% · 23h0.01% · 23h0.01%23h-0.04% · 00h-0.04% · 00h-0.04%00h-0.29% · 01h-0.29% · 01h-0.29%01h-0.04% · 02h-0.04% · 02h-0.04%02h0.63% · 03h0.63% · 03h0.63%03h0.55% · 04h0.55% · 04h0.55%04h0.56% · 05h0.56% · 05h0.56%05h0.17% · 06h0.17% · 06h0.17%06h0.77% · 07h0.77% · 07h0.77%07hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+2.31%)RUNSup max 5 · down max 3BREADTH58% up · 42% down
14 up bars · 10 down · best 1.11% · worst -0.70% · typical |Δ| 0.423%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSTRONG PROFIT +2.93% · SHALLOW DDFINAL+2.93%MAX DD-1.52%RECOVERYFULLY RECOVEREDMAX RUN-UP+2.93%UNDERWATER19/25 (76%)STREAK↗ 5EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0293 · peak 1.0293 · range [1.0000, 1.0293]1.02931.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0293UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.52% · moderate0%-1.52%▼ TROUGH -1.52%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -1.52%bar 8-22 · 15 bars · recovered#2 -0.70%bar 3-6 · 4 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.52%)RECOVERYfully recoveredTIME UNDER WATER76% of session · 19/25 bars
final equity 1.0293 (2.93%) · max DD -1.52% · time-under-water 19/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +11 / −8 (58% positive) · μ=7.86 · σ=47.25MIXED EDGELAST 133.96 (+2.67σ vs μ)133.9666.980.00-66.98-133.96μ = 7.8638.5038.500.550.5532.5732.578.688.6822.4722.477.437.43-33.79-33.79-14.77-14.77-62.80-62.80-25.32-25.32-48.86-48.86-29.93-29.93-28.47-28.47-32.19-32.1926.2326.2335.3135.3154.3054.3065.4365.43133.96133.96v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 133.963 · range [-62.80, 133.96] · μ 7.857 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=41.1779 · σ=16.6032 · range [20.7553, 67.3241] · R²=0.641▼ FALLING -57.39%σ EXTREME 40.32%LAST 28.683867.324155.681944.039732.397520.7553μ = 41.1779max 67.3241min 20.7553dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.64μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 28.68% · range [20.76%, 67.32%] · μ 41.18% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-0.307 · σ=0.378MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.377 (-0.18σ vs μ)0.7090.3540.000-0.354-0.709μ = -0.307-0.372-0.372-0.406-0.406-0.617-0.617-0.580-0.580-0.676-0.676-0.668-0.668-0.709-0.709-0.556-0.556-0.616-0.616-0.377-0.377-0.072-0.072-0.405-0.405-0.383-0.383-0.318-0.3180.0480.0480.4300.4300.5180.5180.3080.308-0.377-0.377v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.377 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.7465
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6885
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
10.0941
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0718
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.1668
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6878
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.0031
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3158
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (15 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.2320
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3009
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.7852
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4323
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.761 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.56e-5 · top T=2.40h (34.9%) · top-3 cover 63.5%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.1e-48.0e-55.4e-52.7e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 5.48e-5 · 17.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 5.48e-5 · 17.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 6.36e-6 · 2.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 6.36e-6 · 2.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.13e-5 · 6.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.13e-5 · 6.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.56e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.56e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.28e-5 · 10.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.28e-5 · 10.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.31e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.31e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.82e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.82e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.23e-5 · 4.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.23e-5 · 4.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.36e-5 · 7.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.36e-5 · 7.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.07e-4 · 34.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.07e-4 · 34.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.69e-5 · 8.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.69e-5 · 8.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.28e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.28e-6 · 1.7% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=24.00h#3T=4.80hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 34.9% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.069e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (4730 bars · effective 5249975 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.004% per barparametric μ/σ² -3.85× · μ -0.004% · σ 0.31%
μ per barmean
-0.004%
σ per barvol
0.31%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-3.85×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.07%-0.03%0.01%0.06%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -19.92400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4729 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.009
annualized -19.92
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.03%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.04%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.2%
0.94×0.96×0.99×1.01×1.04×1.06×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -27.46σ ann 714% · Sortino -19.91 · n 4729 · ⚠ capped (n=4729 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-3295%-2465%-1634%-804%26%857%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)714.0%Ann. vol σ-2746.0%Sharpe (ann)-1991.2%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.001% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0080.0090.0100.0100.0110.012t-4729t-3941t-3153t-2365t-1576t-788t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 07:56:37 UTC
Snapshot age
23.6s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 07:57:01 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
5c9c06b5fdc23de28a663113e87e99161fdf1760461e6f127eb5eb84a5f2df0a · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.4¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDUruguay67.8¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,678HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.1HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,725.4

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$2.78K
bid $2.16K · ask $616
Depth within 10bp
$6.16K
bid $4.20K · ask $1.96K
Depth within 50bp
$22.70K
bid $12.46K · ask $10.24K
Mid price
0.008503
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
7.1bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.120
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.242
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-SKR/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0085074.88bp0.0085092FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.00852222.64bp0.00854513FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.00853537.22bp0.00857320PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0084994.20bp0.0084992FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.00848718.26bp0.00847010FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.00846742.70bp0.00843420PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-SKR/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$5.88M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-SKR/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.161 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
14 / 10
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$3.34M
real volume
Sell weight
$2.41M
real volume
Net delta
$927.89K
buyers net
Imbalance
16.12%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
16.1%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-SKR/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 1.32% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-19 18:00:00Z3.0h0.008403→0.0082921.321%4
#22026-06-19 09:00:00Z0ms0.008355→0.0082970.694%1
#32026-06-19 14:00:00Z0ms0.008411→0.0083570.642%1

/api/asset/hl-SKR/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 4,730 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.25M
Realized vol (annualised)
713.97%
σ per bar = 0.003116
Mean return (annualised)
-19605.91%
μ per bar = -0.000037
Sharpe (rf=0)
-27.46
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
24.31%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 4011 bars

/api/asset/hl-SKR/risk · same metrics, JSON