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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

SEI

SEI-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-sei · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 2.85%
realized vol (ann.)
56.23%
max drawdown
1.88%
sharpe
4.18
ulcer index
0.85%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.66%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
275.82
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.64%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.01
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
143.20
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.01
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
2.85%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 32%
  • 24h change +2.85%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 7.3bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-SEI/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH679ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.055
24h Δ · live
2.85%
24h vol · live
$0.7M
SEI · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0541 · σ=0.0007 · range [0.0532, 0.0556] · R²=0.207▲ RISING +3.02%σ NORMAL 1.27%LAST 0.05490.05560.05500.05440.05380.0532μ = 0.0541max 0.0556min 0.0532dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.21μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.05
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=12,273,379 · μ=490935.2 · σ=796642.5 · CV=1.62BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=2001,036,0562,072,1113,108,1674,144,222μ = 4909354,144,22250%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 4144222 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
679ms
$mark $
$0.0549
$mid $
$0.0549
◉prev-day close
$0.0533
Δ24h Δ %
+2.848%
$24h vol $
$659.81k
◐open interest $
$1.60M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0541 · σ=0.0007 · range [0.0532, 0.0556] · R²=0.207▲ RISING +3.02%σ NORMAL 1.27%LAST 0.05490.05560.05500.05440.05380.0532μ = 0.0541max 0.0556min 0.0532dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.21μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0549 · 24h 2.85% · range $[0.0532, 0.0556]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [0.0531, 0.0556] · σ=0.0007 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=60%BULLISH +2.90%CLOSE 0.0549 vs OPEN 0.0533 (+2.90%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.05490.05560.05500.05440.05380.0531μ close = 0.0541O0.053 H0.054 L0.053 C0.053 (-0.11%)O0.053 H0.054 L0.053 C0.053 (-0.11%)O0.053 H0.054 L0.053 C0.054 (+1.10%)O0.053 H0.054 L0.053 C0.054 (+1.10%)O0.054 H0.055 L0.054 C0.055 (+1.98%)O0.054 H0.055 L0.054 C0.055 (+1.98%)O0.055 H0.055 L0.054 C0.054 (-1.24%)O0.055 H0.055 L0.054 C0.054 (-1.24%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (+0.08%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (+0.08%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (-0.44%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (-0.44%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (+0.42%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (+0.42%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (-0.94%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (-0.94%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.053 C0.053 (-0.77%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.053 C0.053 (-0.77%)O0.053 H0.054 L0.053 C0.054 (+0.33%)O0.053 H0.054 L0.053 C0.054 (+0.33%)O0.053 H0.054 L0.053 C0.053 (-0.50%)O0.053 H0.054 L0.053 C0.053 (-0.50%)O0.053 H0.054 L0.053 C0.054 (+0.69%)O0.053 H0.054 L0.053 C0.054 (+0.69%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (+0.84%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (+0.84%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (-0.74%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (-0.74%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.053 C0.054 (-0.17%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.053 C0.054 (-0.17%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.053 C0.053 (-0.33%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.053 C0.053 (-0.33%)O0.053 H0.054 L0.053 C0.053 (+0.13%)O0.053 H0.054 L0.053 C0.053 (+0.13%)O0.053 H0.054 L0.053 C0.054 (+0.36%)O0.053 H0.054 L0.053 C0.054 (+0.36%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (+1.24%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (+1.24%)2.2%O0.054 H0.056 L0.054 C0.056 (+2.21%)O0.054 H0.056 L0.054 C0.056 (+2.21%)O0.056 H0.056 L0.055 C0.055 (-1.57%)O0.056 H0.056 L0.055 C0.055 (-1.57%)O0.055 H0.055 L0.055 C0.055 (-0.33%)O0.055 H0.055 L0.055 C0.055 (-0.33%)O0.055 H0.056 L0.055 C0.056 (+1.91%)O0.055 H0.056 L0.055 C0.056 (+1.91%)O0.056 H0.056 L0.055 C0.055 (-1.05%)O0.056 H0.056 L0.055 C0.055 (-1.05%)O0.055 H0.055 L0.055 C0.055 (-0.33%)O0.055 H0.055 L0.055 C0.055 (-0.33%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=12,273,379 · μ=490935.2 · σ=796642.5 · CV=1.62BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=2001,036,0562,072,1113,108,1674,144,222μ = 490935233,882 · 5.6% peak233,882 · 5.6% peak276,449 · 6.7% peak276,449 · 6.7% peak719,123 · 17.4% peak719,123 · 17.4% peak594,937 · 14.4% peak594,937 · 14.4% peak126,815 · 3.1% peak126,815 · 3.1% peak359,289 · 8.7% peak359,289 · 8.7% peak231,593 · 5.6% peak231,593 · 5.6% peak197,501 · 4.8% peak197,501 · 4.8% peak562,764 · 13.6% peak562,764 · 13.6% peak75,157 · 1.8% peak75,157 · 1.8% peak130,091 · 3.1% peak130,091 · 3.1% peak51,246 · 1.2% peak51,246 · 1.2% peak192,623 · 4.6% peak192,623 · 4.6% peak336,463 · 8.1% peak336,463 · 8.1% peak159,538 · 3.8% peak159,538 · 3.8% peak305,921 · 7.4% peak305,921 · 7.4% peak110,230 · 2.7% peak110,230 · 2.7% peak238,112 · 5.7% peak238,112 · 5.7% peak614,672 · 14.8% peak614,672 · 14.8% peak4,144,2224,144,222 · 100.0% peak4,144,222 · 100.0% peak451,819 · 10.9% peak451,819 · 10.9% peak200,984 · 4.8% peak200,984 · 4.8% peak846,242 · 20.4% peak846,242 · 20.4% peak875,774 · 21.1% peak875,774 · 21.1% peak237,932 · 5.7% peak237,932 · 5.7% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 12273379 · peak 4144222 · CV 1.62

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0014 · σ=0.0102 · skew=0.39 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.68 (mesokurtic)43210 2-145.90bpbin -145.90bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -145.90bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 1-114.19bpbin -114.19bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -114.19bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 3-82.47bpbin -82.47bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -82.47bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 2-50.75bpbin -50.75bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -50.75bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 4-19.03bpbin -19.03bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -19.03bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 212.68bpbin 12.68bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 12.68bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 344.40bpbin 44.40bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 44.40bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 276.12bpbin 76.12bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 76.12bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 1107.83bpbin 107.83bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 107.83bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 1139.55bpbin 139.55bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 139.55bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak171.27bp 3202.99bpbin 202.99bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 202.99bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 12 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.40 · kurt=-0.63 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0549
Mid price
$0.0549
24h change
+2.85%
Mark–mid spread
1.28 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0533

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.61)
μ MEAN0.0541$95% CI: [0.0538$, 0.0544$]
σ STD DEV0.0007$σ² = 0.005×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.27%
med MEDIAN0.0541$Q₁ 0.0535$ · Q₃ 0.0546$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0024$ · IQR 0.0010$ (1.349σ→0.0009$)
min 0.0532$Q₁ 0.0535$med 0.0541$Q₃ 0.0546$max 0.0556$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.614right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.716mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.05
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.93
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.42
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=11.21
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.123821%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.120
σᵣ STD / h1.034133%σ²ᵣ = 1.069×10⁻⁴ · CV = 8.35×
σ ANNUALISED96.79%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.034%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)11.21excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)13.92strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.43approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.48mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.24
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+1084.67%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.27%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.274%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.548%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.466%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.02%8h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.274%VaR₉₉−1.548%ES₉₅−1.466%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 8h duration
PEAK5.49$
−3.02% drawdown over 8h
5.32$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.15× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.22× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.11% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
57.2 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.758 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0556
Bollinger MA
$0.0541
Bollinger lower
$0.0527

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.141within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.247lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.917strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+2.447significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.917
H = 0.917STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.141k=2-0.247k=3+0.161k=4-0.069k=5-0.0780+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.45)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.98very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.45)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$659.81k
Open interest (USD)
$1.60M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.41x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.19% · worst -1.62% · typical |Δ| 0.83%MILD BULLISH +2.97%BEST+2.19%06hWORST-1.62%07hTYPICAL |Δ|0.83%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+2.97%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.13% · Σ +1.05%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.29% · Σ +2.33%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.05% · Σ -0.41%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +2.97%+4.31%-0.02%1.11% · 12h1.11% · 12h1.11%12h1.93% · 13h1.93% · 13h1.93%13h-1.31% · 14h-1.31% · 14h-1.31%14h0.21% · 15h0.21% · 15h0.21%15h-0.39% · 16h-0.39% · 16h-0.39%16h0.43% · 17h0.43% · 17h0.43%17h-0.97% · 18h-0.97% · 18h-0.97%18h-0.78% · 19h-0.78% · 19h-0.78%19h0.33% · 20h0.33% · 20h0.33%20h-0.59% · 21h-0.59% · 21h-0.59%21h0.67% · 22h0.67% · 22h0.67%22h0.89% · 23h0.89% · 23h0.89%23h-0.75% · 00h-0.75% · 00h-0.75%00h-0.25% · 01h-0.25% · 01h-0.25%01h-0.33% · 02h-0.33% · 02h-0.33%02h0.13% · 03h0.13% · 03h0.13%03h0.44% · 04h0.44% · 04h0.44%04h1.24% · 05h1.24% · 05h1.24%05h2.19% · 06h2.19% · 06h2.19%06h★ BEST-1.62% · 07h-1.62% · 07h-1.62%07h▼ WORST-0.16% · 08h-0.16% · 08h-0.16%08h1.89% · 09h1.89% · 09h1.89%09h-1.04% · 10h-1.04% · 10h-1.04%10h-0.30% · 11h-0.30% · 11h-0.30%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+2.33%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 3BREADTH50% up · 50% down
12 up bars · 12 down · best 2.19% · worst -1.62% · typical |Δ| 0.832%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +2.89%FINAL+2.89%MAX DD-3.04%RECOVERYONGOING · 16 barsMAX RUN-UP+4.28%UNDERWATER20/25 (80%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0289 · peak 1.0428 · range [0.9993, 1.0428]1.04280.9993break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0428UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.04% · moderate0%-3.04%▼ TROUGH -3.04%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -3.04%bar 4-19 · 16 bars · recovered#2 -1.77%bar 21-22 · 2 bars · recovered#3 -1.34%bar 24-25 · 2 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.04%)RECOVERYongoing · 22 barsTIME UNDER WATER80% of session · 20/25 bars
final equity 1.0289 (2.89%) · max DD -3.04% · time-under-water 20/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +11 / −8 (58% positive) · μ=2.67 · σ=29.94MIXED EDGELAST 9.66 (+0.23σ vs μ)64.1532.070.00-32.07-64.15μ = 2.6727.2127.21-1.37-1.37-64.15-64.15-30.15-30.15-52.74-52.74-19.89-19.89-8.63-8.63-4.69-4.696.926.92-8.43-8.438.818.813.313.3110.6510.6554.5854.5824.4224.4226.8426.8443.7343.7324.5924.599.669.66v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 9.659 · range [-64.15, 54.58] · μ 2.666 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=87.8503 · σ=32.7312 · range [54.4325, 148.4197] · R²=0.334▲ RISING +36.77%σ EXTREME 37.26%LAST 145.0916148.4197124.9229101.426177.929354.4325μ = 87.8503max 148.4197min 54.4325dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.33μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 145.09% · range [54.43%, 148.42%] · μ 87.85% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-0.162 · σ=0.258MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.425 (-1.02σ vs μ)0.5180.2590.000-0.259-0.518μ = -0.162-0.183-0.183-0.518-0.518-0.321-0.321-0.300-0.300-0.423-0.423-0.335-0.3350.1450.145-0.306-0.306-0.212-0.212-0.071-0.0710.0920.092-0.205-0.2050.3380.3380.4600.460-0.204-0.204-0.112-0.112-0.184-0.184-0.315-0.315-0.425-0.425v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.425 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.9570
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6197
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.3915
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6424
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.1786
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2214
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.4174
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6764
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3614
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0938
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.5261
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1270
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.536 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.04e-4 · top T=3.43h (33.2%) · top-3 cover 56.7%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)4.2e-43.1e-42.1e-41.0e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 6.89e-5 · 5.5% energyperiod 24.0 · power 6.89e-5 · 5.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.26e-6 · 0.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.26e-6 · 0.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.30e-4 · 10.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.30e-4 · 10.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.40e-5 · 5.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.40e-5 · 5.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.59e-5 · 2.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.59e-5 · 2.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.64e-4 · 13.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.64e-4 · 13.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.17e-4 · 33.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.17e-4 · 33.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.72e-5 · 4.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.72e-5 · 4.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 8.41e-5 · 6.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 8.41e-5 · 6.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.21e-4 · 9.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.21e-4 · 9.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 7.22e-5 · 5.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 7.22e-5 · 5.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.78e-5 · 3.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.78e-5 · 3.8% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=3.43h#2T=4.00h#3T=8.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.43h (freq 0.292) · concentrates 33.2% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.254e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5256096 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 7.73× · g(f★) 0.001%/barparametric μ/σ² 6.66× · μ 0.000% · σ 0.07%
μ per barmean
0.000%
σ per barvol
0.07%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
7.73×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
6.66×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
3.87×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
1.93×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 1.67× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe 8.93400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 1.67× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.004
annualized 8.93
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.11%
VaR 95%5%
0.08%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.14%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.3%
0.92×0.96×1.00×1.04×1.07×1.11×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 9.95σ ann 149% · Sortino 12.59 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%302%604%907%1209%1511%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)149.4%Ann. vol σ995.1%Sharpe (ann)1259.4%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0500.0520.0530.0550.0560.058t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 11:33:50 UTC
Snapshot age
679ms
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 11:33:51 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
482f5731d65d36978d6a041fc0517a890974c7006036503274118cba79c3fd56 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.5¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,672HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.71HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,726.5

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$6.56K
bid $3.48K · ask $3.07K
Depth within 10bp
$43.52K
bid $21.11K · ask $22.41K
Depth within 50bp
$83.23K
bid $41.11K · ask $42.12K
Mid price
0.054858
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
2.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.011
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.059
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-SEI/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0548671.79bp0.0548792FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.0548885.63bp0.0548978FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.0549129.94bp0.05494120PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0548501.44bp0.0548392FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0548314.75bp0.0548267FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.05479910.61bp0.05475920PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-SEI/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$12.27M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-SEI/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.267 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
12 / 12
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$7.63M
real volume
Sell weight
$4.41M
real volume
Net delta
$3.21M
buyers net
Imbalance
26.69%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
26.7%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-SEI/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 1.98% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-19 18:00:00Z3.0h0.054307→0.0532311.981%4
#22026-06-20 07:00:00Z1.0h0.055528→0.0545501.761%2
#32026-06-19 14:00:00Z2.0h0.054889→0.0540751.483%3

/api/asset/hl-SEI/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
149.38%
σ per bar = 0.000652
Mean return (annualised)
1486.49%
μ per bar = 0.000003
Sharpe (rf=0)
9.95
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
3.71%
peak 0.05 → trough 0.05 over 465 bars

/api/asset/hl-SEI/risk · same metrics, JSON