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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

PYTH

PYTH-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-pyth · fresh · feed 7s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 4.29%
realized vol (ann.)
145.16%
max drawdown
1.16%
sharpe
89.18
ulcer index
0.51%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.36%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.04%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
25507.08
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.10%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.30
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
11784.22
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.30
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
613
store
spread
—
24h Δ
4.29%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-23.72%
signalLONGconfidence 44%suggested side: BUY
  • 24h change +4.29%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 18.6bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-PYTH/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH6.6s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.037
24h Δ · live
4.29%
24h vol · live
$0.5M
PYTH · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0357 · σ=0.0005 · range [0.0349, 0.0369] · R²=0.427▲ RISING +4.33%σ NORMAL 1.31%LAST 0.03650.03690.03640.03590.03540.0349μ = 0.0357max 0.0369min 0.0349dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.43μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.04
Funding direction · live
Long fee 49.1%Short fee 50.9%SHORT FEE50.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.01% (99.99pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 1.000 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
49.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
50.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.002707% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=13,862,334 · μ=554493.4 · σ=375978.4 · CV=0.68RISING +72% h/hcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=180393,775787,5501,181,3251,575,100μ = 5544931,575,10050%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 1575100 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
6.6s
$mark $
$0.0365
$mid $
$0.0365
◉prev-day close
$0.035
Δ24h Δ %
+4.287%
$24h vol $
$488.10k
◐open interest $
$766.27k
%funding (1h)
-0.002707%
%funding (yr)
-23.72%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0357 · σ=0.0005 · range [0.0349, 0.0369] · R²=0.427▲ RISING +4.33%σ NORMAL 1.31%LAST 0.03650.03690.03640.03590.03540.0349μ = 0.0357max 0.0369min 0.0349dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.43μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0365 · 24h 4.29% · range $[0.0349, 0.0369]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [0.0347, 0.0371] · σ=0.0005 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=57%BULLISH +3.52%CLOSE 0.0365 vs OPEN 0.0353 (+3.52%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.03650.03710.03650.03590.03530.0347μ close = 0.0357O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.78%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.78%)O0.035 H0.036 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.80%)O0.035 H0.036 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.80%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-1.03%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-1.03%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.08%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.08%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.13%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.13%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+1.35%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+1.35%)O0.035 H0.036 L0.035 C0.036 (+1.34%)O0.035 H0.036 L0.035 C0.036 (+1.34%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (-0.40%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (-0.40%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (+0.44%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (+0.44%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (-0.69%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (-0.69%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (+0.94%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (+0.94%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (-0.18%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (-0.18%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.035 C0.036 (-0.51%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.035 C0.036 (-0.51%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (+0.97%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (+0.97%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (-1.15%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (-1.15%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.035 C0.036 (+0.49%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.035 C0.036 (+0.49%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (+0.58%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (+0.58%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.035 C0.036 (-1.31%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.035 C0.036 (-1.31%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.34%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.34%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.52%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.52%)O0.035 H0.036 L0.035 C0.036 (+0.91%)O0.035 H0.036 L0.035 C0.036 (+0.91%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.035 C0.036 (+0.98%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.035 C0.036 (+0.98%)O0.036 H0.037 L0.036 C0.036 (+0.53%)O0.036 H0.037 L0.036 C0.036 (+0.53%)2.2%O0.036 H0.037 L0.036 C0.037 (+2.22%)O0.036 H0.037 L0.036 C0.037 (+2.22%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.036 C0.037 (-0.95%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.036 C0.037 (-0.95%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=13,862,334 · μ=554493.4 · σ=375978.4 · CV=0.68RISING +72% h/hcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=180393,775787,5501,181,3251,575,100μ = 554493189,966 · 12.1% peak189,966 · 12.1% peak313,692 · 19.9% peak313,692 · 19.9% peak337,124 · 21.4% peak337,124 · 21.4% peak156,989 · 10.0% peak156,989 · 10.0% peak446,530 · 28.3% peak446,530 · 28.3% peak599,724 · 38.1% peak599,724 · 38.1% peak994,735 · 63.2% peak994,735 · 63.2% peak342,922 · 21.8% peak342,922 · 21.8% peak403,737 · 25.6% peak403,737 · 25.6% peak829,918 · 52.7% peak829,918 · 52.7% peak321,933 · 20.4% peak321,933 · 20.4% peak164,102 · 10.4% peak164,102 · 10.4% peak196,188 · 12.5% peak196,188 · 12.5% peak321,498 · 20.4% peak321,498 · 20.4% peak168,608 · 10.7% peak168,608 · 10.7% peak313,402 · 19.9% peak313,402 · 19.9% peak303,118 · 19.2% peak303,118 · 19.2% peak982,268 · 62.4% peak982,268 · 62.4% peak415,102 · 26.4% peak415,102 · 26.4% peak960,536 · 61.0% peak960,536 · 61.0% peak957,137 · 60.8% peak957,137 · 60.8% peak1,082,448 · 68.7% peak1,082,448 · 68.7% peak923,850 · 58.7% peak923,850 · 58.7% peak1,575,1001,575,100 · 100.0% peak1,575,100 · 100.0% peak561,707 · 35.7% peak561,707 · 35.7% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 13862334 · peak 1575100 · CV 0.68

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0015 · σ=0.0087 · skew=0.16 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.83 (mesokurtic)54310 2-123.03bpbin -123.03bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -123.03bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 2-93.27bpbin -93.27bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -93.27bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 3-63.50bpbin -63.50bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -63.50bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 3-33.73bpbin -33.73bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -33.73bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 2-3.97bpbin -3.97bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -3.97bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 125.80bpbin 25.80bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 25.80bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 355.56bpbin 55.56bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 55.56bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 585.33bpbin 85.33bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 85.33bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 1115.10bpbin 115.10bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 115.10bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 1144.86bpbin 144.86bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 144.86bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak174.63bp 1204.39bpbin 204.39bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 204.39bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 12 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.19 · kurt=-0.81 · near 23 / mid 1 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0365
Mid price
$0.0365
24h change
+4.29%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.035

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.53)
μ MEAN0.0357$95% CI: [0.0355$, 0.0358$]
σ STD DEV0.0005$σ² = 0.002×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.31%
med MEDIAN0.0356$Q₁ 0.0354$ · Q₃ 0.0359$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0020$ · IQR 0.0005$ (1.349σ→0.0006$)
min 0.0349$Q₁ 0.0354$med 0.0356$Q₃ 0.0359$max 0.0369$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.529right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.192mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.06
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.22
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.19
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=17.89
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.176692%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.191
σᵣ STD / h0.924377%σ²ᵣ = 0.854×10⁻⁴ · CV = 5.23×
σ ANNUALISED86.52%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.924%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)17.89excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)22.70strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.20approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.70mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.27
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+1547.82%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.10%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.097%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.320%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.252%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.22%3h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.097%VaR₉₉−1.320%ES₉₅−1.252%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 3h duration
PEAK3.60$
−2.22% drawdown over 3h
3.52$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.14× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.20× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.27% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
62.9 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.967 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0366
Bollinger MA
$0.0358
Bollinger lower
$0.0350

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.185within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.038lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.729strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+4.139significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.729
H = 0.729STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.185k=2+0.038k=3-0.042k=4-0.357k=5+0.2790+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.14)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.64very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.14)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$488.10k
Open interest (USD)
$766.27k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.64x
1h funding
-0.002707%
Funding (annualised)
-23.72%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.19% · worst -1.38% · typical |Δ| 0.80%MILD BULLISH +4.24%BEST+2.19%06hWORST-1.38%00hTYPICAL |Δ|0.80%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+4.24%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.19% · Σ +1.50%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.30% · Σ +2.38%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.05% · Σ +0.36%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +4.24%+5.19%-0.28%0.84% · 08h0.84% · 08h0.84%08h-0.84% · 09h-0.84% · 09h-0.84%09h-0.11% · 10h-0.11% · 10h-0.11%10h-0.17% · 11h-0.17% · 11h-0.17%11h1.27% · 12h1.27% · 12h1.27%12h1.45% · 13h1.45% · 13h1.45%13h-0.42% · 14h-0.42% · 14h-0.42%14h0.35% · 15h0.35% · 15h0.35%15h-0.77% · 16h-0.77% · 16h-0.77%16h0.94% · 17h0.94% · 17h0.94%17h-0.31% · 18h-0.31% · 18h-0.31%18h-0.53% · 19h-0.53% · 19h-0.53%19h0.96% · 20h0.96% · 20h0.96%20h-1.12% · 21h-1.12% · 21h-1.12%21h0.58% · 22h0.58% · 22h0.58%22h0.61% · 23h0.61% · 23h0.61%23h-1.38% · 00h-1.38% · 00h-1.38%00h▼ WORST-0.27% · 01h-0.27% · 01h-0.27%01h-0.59% · 02h-0.59% · 02h-0.59%02h0.91% · 03h0.91% · 03h0.91%03h0.98% · 04h0.98% · 04h0.98%04h0.60% · 05h0.60% · 05h0.60%05h2.19% · 06h2.19% · 06h2.19%06h★ BEST-0.95% · 07h-0.95% · 07h-0.95%07hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+2.38%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 3BREADTH50% up · 50% down
12 up bars · 12 down · best 2.19% · worst -1.38% · typical |Δ| 0.798%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +4.23%FINAL+4.23%MAX DD-2.23%RECOVERYONGOING · 5 barsMAX RUN-UP+5.22%UNDERWATER16/25 (64%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0423 · peak 1.0522 · range [0.9972, 1.0522]1.05220.9972break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0522UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.23% · moderate0%-2.23%▼ TROUGH -2.23%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 6 total#1 -2.23%bar 18-22 · 5 bars · recovered#2 -1.12%bar 15-16 · 2 bars · recovered#3 -1.11%bar 3-5 · 3 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.23%)RECOVERYongoing · 8 barsTIME UNDER WATER64% of session · 16/25 bars
final equity 1.0423 (4.23%) · max DD -2.23% · time-under-water 16/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +13 / −6 (68% positive) · μ=13.05 · σ=26.92PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 42.92 (+1.11σ vs μ)59.9829.990.00-29.99-59.98μ = 13.0541.7541.7519.7419.7446.9846.9829.5329.5348.4148.4122.5622.56-17.73-17.7313.4813.48-14.54-14.549.359.353.653.65-13.77-13.77-9.94-9.94-40.51-40.51-2.45-2.454.324.324.174.1759.9859.9842.9242.92v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 42.917 · range [-40.51, 59.98] · μ 13.047 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=83.7613 · σ=10.0192 · range [60.0974, 107.1622] · R²=0.212▲ RISING +25.32%σ HIGH 11.96%LAST 107.1622107.162295.396083.629871.863660.0974μ = 83.7613max 107.1622min 60.0974dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.21μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 107.16% · range [60.10%, 107.16%] · μ 83.76% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-0.238 · σ=0.317MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.389 (-0.48σ vs μ)0.6110.3060.000-0.306-0.611μ = -0.2380.1950.1950.1400.140-0.034-0.034-0.057-0.057-0.100-0.100-0.567-0.567-0.611-0.611-0.555-0.555-0.589-0.589-0.611-0.611-0.525-0.525-0.525-0.525-0.414-0.414-0.257-0.257-0.137-0.1370.0230.0230.3220.3220.1630.163-0.389-0.389v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.389 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.6600
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7189
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
7.5588
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1810
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.5730
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4986
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.4174
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6764
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4874
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0445
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.6431
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5202
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.804 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=8.28e-5 · top T=2.40h (34.2%) · top-3 cover 61.8%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)3.4e-42.5e-41.7e-48.5e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 4.64e-5 · 4.7% energyperiod 24.0 · power 4.64e-5 · 4.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.04e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.04e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.90e-4 · 19.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.90e-4 · 19.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.26e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.26e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.36e-5 · 5.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.36e-5 · 5.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.46e-6 · 0.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.46e-6 · 0.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.64e-5 · 7.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.64e-5 · 7.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.91e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.91e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 8.49e-5 · 8.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 8.49e-5 · 8.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.39e-4 · 34.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.39e-4 · 34.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 7.72e-5 · 7.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 7.72e-5 · 7.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.10e-5 · 2.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.10e-5 · 2.1% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=8.00h#3T=2.67hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 34.2% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 9.931e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (4729 bars · effective 5249975 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 3.47× · g(f★) 0.006%/barparametric μ/σ² 3.21× · μ 0.003% · σ 0.33%
μ per barmean
0.003%
σ per barvol
0.33%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
3.47×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
3.21×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
1.73×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.87×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%-0.00%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.80× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.002% · annualized Sharpe 25.28400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.80× · bootstrap from 4728 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.011
annualized 25.28
μ per barafter L
0.003%
σ per barafter L
0.26%
VaR 95%5%
0.06%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.35%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.3%
0.87×0.94×1.01×1.07×1.14×1.21×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 23.90σ ann 745% · Sortino 25.30 · n 4728 · ⚠ capped (n=4728 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%607%1215%1822%2429%3036%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)744.8%Ann. vol σ2390.1%Sharpe (ann)2530.2%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.007% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0290.0320.0350.0380.0410.044t-4728t-3940t-3152t-2364t-1576t-788t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 07:56:30 UTC
Snapshot age
6.6s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 07:56:37 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
2c441b64cf6e444a32e78d0ee5b724debc0a5593be857a8888a3b2b23c2518cd · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.4¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDUruguay67.8¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,677HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.1HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,725.4

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$2.88K
bid $2.63K · ask $250
Depth within 10bp
$9.20K
bid $8.00K · ask $1.20K
Depth within 50bp
$41.36K
bid $23.05K · ask $18.31K
Mid price
0.036536
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
3.3bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.116
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.374
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-PYTH/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0365585.97bp0.0365644FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.03659415.86bp0.03662615FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.03661922.78bp0.03666920PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0365272.38bp0.0365203FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0365116.86bp0.03649312FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.03647616.52bp0.03641420PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-2.707e-5
-0.00271% / hr
Annualised APR
-23.732%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
15.4d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
15.4d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE23.732%15.4d153.9d
SHORTPAY-23.732%15.4d153.9d

/api/asset/hl-PYTH/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$13.86M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-PYTH/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.186 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
12 / 12
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$8.11M
real volume
Sell weight
$5.56M
real volume
Net delta
$2.55M
buyers net
Imbalance
18.64%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
18.6%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-PYTH/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 6 found · deepest 2.22% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-20 00:00:00Z2.0h0.035994→0.0351962.217%3
#22026-06-19 21:00:00Z1.0h0.035970→0.0355681.118%2
#32026-06-19 09:00:00Z2.0h0.035315→0.0349231.110%3

/api/asset/hl-PYTH/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 4,729 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.25M
Realized vol (annualised)
744.79%
σ per bar = 0.003251
Mean return (annualised)
17801.29%
μ per bar = 0.000034
Sharpe (rf=0)
23.90
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
13.45%
peak 0.04 → trough 0.04 over 3975 bars

/api/asset/hl-PYTH/risk · same metrics, JSON