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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

PROVE

PROVE-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-prove · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 2.95%
realized vol (ann.)
65.14%
max drawdown
1.09%
sharpe
-3.62
ulcer index
0.64%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.59%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-367.74
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.98%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.99
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-240.92
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.99
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
2.95%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-12.18%
signalLONGconfidence 43%suggested side: BUY
  • 24h change +2.95%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 15.6bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-PROVE/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.1s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.212
24h Δ · live
2.95%
24h vol · live
$0.3M
PROVE · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.2079 · σ=0.0033 · range [0.2027, 0.2123] · R²=0.720▲ RISING +3.42%σ NORMAL 1.61%LAST 0.21160.21230.20990.20750.20510.2027μ = 0.2079max 0.2123min 0.2027dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.72μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.21
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.3%Short fee 51.7%SHORT FEE51.7%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.3%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.7%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.001390% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=1,252,418 · μ=50096.7 · σ=53352.6 · CV=1.06BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=15053,223106,445159,668212,890μ = 50097212,89050%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 212890 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.1s
$mark $
$0.2116
$mid $
$0.2116
◉prev-day close
$0.2055
Δ24h Δ %
+2.949%
$24h vol $
$260.10k
◐open interest $
$207.77k
%funding (1h)
-0.001390%
%funding (yr)
-12.18%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.2079 · σ=0.0033 · range [0.2027, 0.2123] · R²=0.720▲ RISING +3.42%σ NORMAL 1.61%LAST 0.21160.21230.20990.20750.20510.2027μ = 0.2079max 0.2123min 0.2027dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.72μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.2116 · 24h 2.95% · range $[0.2027, 0.2123]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 15 · down 10 (60% up) · range [0.2008, 0.2144] · σ=0.0033 · CV=0.02 · bodyµ=43%BULLISH +2.66%CLOSE 0.2116 vs OPEN 0.2061 (+2.66%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.21160.21440.21100.20760.20420.2008μ close = 0.2079O0.206 H0.207 L0.204 C0.205 (-0.74%)O0.206 H0.207 L0.204 C0.205 (-0.74%)O0.205 H0.205 L0.202 C0.203 (-0.70%)O0.205 H0.205 L0.202 C0.203 (-0.70%)O0.203 H0.206 L0.203 C0.205 (+0.85%)O0.203 H0.206 L0.203 C0.205 (+0.85%)O0.205 H0.207 L0.205 C0.206 (+0.22%)O0.205 H0.207 L0.205 C0.206 (+0.22%)O0.206 H0.206 L0.204 C0.206 (+0.19%)O0.206 H0.206 L0.204 C0.206 (+0.19%)O0.206 H0.207 L0.204 C0.204 (-0.83%)O0.206 H0.207 L0.204 C0.204 (-0.83%)O0.204 H0.206 L0.204 C0.205 (+0.53%)O0.204 H0.206 L0.204 C0.205 (+0.53%)O0.205 H0.205 L0.204 C0.205 (-0.33%)O0.205 H0.205 L0.204 C0.205 (-0.33%)O0.205 H0.206 L0.204 C0.204 (-0.42%)O0.205 H0.206 L0.204 C0.204 (-0.42%)O0.204 H0.205 L0.201 C0.203 (-0.64%)O0.204 H0.205 L0.201 C0.203 (-0.64%)O0.203 H0.203 L0.202 C0.203 (+0.38%)O0.203 H0.203 L0.202 C0.203 (+0.38%)O0.203 H0.207 L0.203 C0.206 (+1.32%)O0.203 H0.207 L0.203 C0.206 (+1.32%)2.5%O0.206 H0.214 L0.206 C0.211 (+2.47%)O0.206 H0.214 L0.206 C0.211 (+2.47%)O0.211 H0.213 L0.211 C0.212 (+0.25%)O0.211 H0.213 L0.211 C0.212 (+0.25%)O0.212 H0.213 L0.208 C0.209 (-1.53%)O0.212 H0.213 L0.208 C0.209 (-1.53%)O0.209 H0.211 L0.208 C0.210 (+0.71%)O0.209 H0.211 L0.208 C0.210 (+0.71%)O0.210 H0.212 L0.209 C0.209 (-0.55%)O0.210 H0.212 L0.209 C0.209 (-0.55%)O0.209 H0.210 L0.209 C0.210 (+0.27%)O0.209 H0.210 L0.209 C0.210 (+0.27%)O0.210 H0.211 L0.209 C0.211 (+0.42%)O0.210 H0.211 L0.209 C0.211 (+0.42%)O0.210 H0.212 L0.209 C0.211 (+0.19%)O0.210 H0.212 L0.209 C0.211 (+0.19%)O0.210 H0.211 L0.210 C0.211 (+0.16%)O0.210 H0.211 L0.210 C0.211 (+0.16%)O0.211 H0.213 L0.211 C0.212 (+0.67%)O0.211 H0.213 L0.211 C0.212 (+0.67%)O0.212 H0.213 L0.212 C0.212 (+0.21%)O0.212 H0.213 L0.212 C0.212 (+0.21%)O0.212 H0.213 L0.212 C0.212 (-0.23%)O0.212 H0.213 L0.212 C0.212 (-0.23%)O0.212 H0.213 L0.211 C0.212 (-0.17%)O0.212 H0.213 L0.211 C0.212 (-0.17%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=1,252,418 · μ=50096.7 · σ=53352.6 · CV=1.06BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=15053,223106,445159,668212,890μ = 5009730,825 · 14.5% peak30,825 · 14.5% peak32,100 · 15.1% peak32,100 · 15.1% peak58,666 · 27.6% peak58,666 · 27.6% peak26,447 · 12.4% peak26,447 · 12.4% peak12,292 · 5.8% peak12,292 · 5.8% peak18,091 · 8.5% peak18,091 · 8.5% peak13,097 · 6.2% peak13,097 · 6.2% peak33,259 · 15.6% peak33,259 · 15.6% peak39,364 · 18.5% peak39,364 · 18.5% peak31,765 · 14.9% peak31,765 · 14.9% peak15,784 · 7.4% peak15,784 · 7.4% peak31,422 · 14.8% peak31,422 · 14.8% peak59,475 · 27.9% peak59,475 · 27.9% peak212,890212,890 · 100.0% peak212,890 · 100.0% peak185,357 · 87.1% peak185,357 · 87.1% peak52,577 · 24.7% peak52,577 · 24.7% peak28,385 · 13.3% peak28,385 · 13.3% peak24,019 · 11.3% peak24,019 · 11.3% peak13,911 · 6.5% peak13,911 · 6.5% peak90,754 · 42.6% peak90,754 · 42.6% peak15,281 · 7.2% peak15,281 · 7.2% peak11,580 · 5.4% peak11,580 · 5.4% peak53,976 · 25.4% peak53,976 · 25.4% peak19,995 · 9.4% peak19,995 · 9.4% peak141,106 · 66.3% peak141,106 · 66.3% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 1252418 · peak 212890 · CV 1.06

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0014 · σ=0.0073 · skew=0.84 (right-skewed) · kurt=2.02 (leptokurtic (fat tails))65320 1-128.10bpbin -128.10bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -128.10bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 1-94.38bpbin -94.38bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -94.38bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 3-60.67bpbin -60.67bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin -60.67bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 3-26.95bpbin -26.95bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin -26.95bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 66.77bpbin 6.77bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin 6.77bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 540.49bpbin 40.49bp · n=5 · 83.3% peakbin 40.49bp · n=5 · 83.3% peak 374.21bpbin 74.21bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin 74.21bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 1107.92bpbin 107.92bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 107.92bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak141.64bp175.36bp209.08bp 1242.80bpbin 242.80bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 242.80bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 14 · negative 10
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.92 · kurt=2.29 · near 20 / mid 3 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.99 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.2116
Mid price
$0.2116
24h change
+2.95%
Mark–mid spread
1.42 bps
Prev-day close
$0.2055

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.72)
μ MEAN0.2079$95% CI: [0.2066$, 0.2092$]
σ STD DEV0.0033$σ² = 0.112×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.61%
med MEDIAN0.2089$Q₁ 0.2048$ · Q₃ 0.2107$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0096$ · IQR 0.0058$ (1.349σ→0.0045$)
min 0.2027$Q₁ 0.2048$med 0.2089$Q₃ 0.2107$max 0.2123$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.061approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.724platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.30
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.77
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.86
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=16.49
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.140177%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.176
σᵣ STD / h0.795814%σ²ᵣ = 0.633×10⁻⁴ · CV = 5.68×
σ ANNUALISED74.48%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.796%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)16.49excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)20.21strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.98right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂3.15leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.23
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+1227.95%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.83%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.828%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.316%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.159%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN1.63%5h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.828%VaR₉₉−1.316%ES₉₅−1.159%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 5h duration
PEAK20.61$
−1.63% drawdown over 5h
20.27$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.40× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.59× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +1.66% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
62.7 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.725 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.2153
Bollinger MA
$0.2086
Bollinger lower
$0.2019

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.090within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.226lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.952strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+7.692significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.952
H = 0.952STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.090k=2-0.226k=3-0.229k=4-0.135k=5-0.0850+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=7.69)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.99very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=7.69)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$260.10k
Open interest (USD)
$207.77k
Vol / OI (turnover)
1.25x
1h funding
-0.001390%
Funding (annualised)
-12.18%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.60% · worst -1.45% · typical |Δ| 0.57%MILD BULLISH +3.36%BEST+2.60%23hWORST-1.45%01hTYPICAL |Δ|0.57%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+3.36%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.05% · Σ -0.39%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.15% · Σ +1.18%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.32% · Σ +2.57%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +3.36%+3.70%-0.91%-0.60% · 12h-0.60% · 12h-0.60%12h0.83% · 13h0.83% · 13h0.83%13h0.33% · 14h0.33% · 14h0.33%14h0.17% · 15h0.17% · 15h0.17%15h-0.87% · 16h-0.87% · 16h-0.87%16h0.55% · 17h0.55% · 17h0.55%17h-0.30% · 18h-0.30% · 18h-0.30%18h-0.42% · 19h-0.42% · 19h-0.42%19h-0.60% · 20h-0.60% · 20h-0.60%20h0.37% · 21h0.37% · 21h0.37%21h1.25% · 22h1.25% · 22h1.25%22h2.60% · 23h2.60% · 23h2.60%23h★ BEST0.22% · 00h0.22% · 00h0.22%00h-1.45% · 01h-1.45% · 01h-1.45%01h▼ WORST0.65% · 02h0.65% · 02h0.65%02h-0.55% · 03h-0.55% · 03h-0.55%03h0.25% · 04h0.25% · 04h0.25%04h0.45% · 05h0.45% · 05h0.45%05h0.05% · 06h0.05% · 06h0.05%06h-0.01% · 07h-0.01% · 07h-0.01%07h0.71% · 08h0.71% · 08h0.71%08h0.08% · 09h0.08% · 09h0.08%09h-0.25% · 10h-0.25% · 10h-0.25%10h-0.09% · 11h-0.09% · 11h-0.09%11hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+2.57%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 3BREADTH58% up · 42% down
14 up bars · 10 down · best 2.60% · worst -1.45% · typical |Δ| 0.569%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSTRONG PROFIT +3.34% · SHALLOW DDFINAL+3.34%MAX DD-1.64%RECOVERYONGOING · 7 barsMAX RUN-UP+3.70%UNDERWATER17/25 (68%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0334 · peak 1.0370 · range [0.9908, 1.0370]1.03700.9908break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0370UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.64% · moderate0%-1.64%▼ TROUGH -1.64%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 4 total#1 -1.64%bar 6-12 · 7 bars · recovered#2 -1.45%bar 15-21 · 7 bars · recovered#3 -0.60%bar 2-2 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.64%)RECOVERYongoing · 20 barsTIME UNDER WATER68% of session · 17/25 bars
final equity 1.0334 (3.34%) · max DD -1.64% · time-under-water 17/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +14 / −5 (74% positive) · μ=18.32 · σ=30.83PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 22.88 (+0.15σ vs μ)84.9142.450.00-42.45-84.91μ = 18.329.729.7218.0118.01-15.93-15.93-44.33-44.33-35.43-35.4318.5618.5636.3636.3644.7244.7226.2926.2942.8342.8330.0930.0919.8219.82-8.34-8.34-11.93-11.9331.2131.2132.2132.2184.9184.9146.3746.3722.8822.88v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 22.884 · range [-44.33, 84.91] · μ 18.316 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=73.4680 · σ=37.7137 · range [26.1970, 132.3804] · R²=0.048▼ FALLING -50.52%σ EXTREME 51.33%LAST 30.8306132.3804105.834679.288752.742926.1970μ = 73.4680max 132.3804min 26.1970dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.05μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 30.83% · range [26.20%, 132.38%] · μ 73.47% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-0.164 · σ=0.314CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST 0.001 (+0.52σ vs μ)0.5570.2780.000-0.278-0.557μ = -0.164-0.373-0.373-0.261-0.261-0.464-0.464-0.534-0.534-0.447-0.4470.2270.2270.4350.4350.2720.2720.1810.1810.1190.1190.1070.107-0.103-0.103-0.557-0.557-0.408-0.408-0.465-0.465-0.154-0.154-0.480-0.480-0.205-0.2050.0010.001v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.001 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀**

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
13.7541
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0010
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.0196
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5486
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.1368
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7012
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.1433
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8861
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (13 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7660
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0086
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.1108
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9118
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.034 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=6.12e-5 · top T=4.80h (23.4%) · top-3 cover 61.2%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.7e-41.3e-48.6e-54.3e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.14e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.14e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.38e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.38e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.64e-4 · 22.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.64e-4 · 22.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.65e-5 · 6.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.65e-5 · 6.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.72e-4 · 23.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.72e-4 · 23.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.16e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.16e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.41e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.41e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.13e-4 · 15.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.13e-4 · 15.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.58e-5 · 4.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.58e-5 · 4.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.49e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.49e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 7.57e-5 · 10.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 7.57e-5 · 10.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.18e-5 · 1.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.18e-5 · 1.6% energy50% by T=4.8h#1 dominantT=4.80h#2T=8.00h#3T=3.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.80h (freq 0.208) · concentrates 23.4% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 7.342e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5256096 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² -8.17× · μ -0.000% · σ 0.05%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.05%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-8.17×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -4.89400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.002
annualized -4.89
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -915% · APY -100% · Sharpe -8.65σ ann 106% · Sortino -5.27 · n 4999
-1098%-853%-608%-363%-118%127%-915.4%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)105.8%Ann. vol σ-864.9%Sharpe (ann)-526.7%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.1980.2030.2090.2140.2190.224t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 11:38:44 UTC
Snapshot age
2.1s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 11:38:47 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
a16f19eb0c6ccf38afbfe94e425c59059b156840378bf233503c28a1c0c8819e · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.5¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,667HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.8HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,726.1

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$1.43K
bid $822 · ask $612
Depth within 10bp
$5.21K
bid $2.23K · ask $2.97K
Depth within 50bp
$23.95K
bid $11.26K · ask $12.69K
Mid price
0.211600
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
2.8bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.058
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.188
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-PROVE/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.2116823.86bp0.2117403FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.21195016.53bp0.21232016FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.21205621.54bp0.21264020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.2115044.52bp0.2114205FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.21122017.95bp0.21085017FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.21117320.19bp0.21074020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-1.390e-5
-0.00139% / hr
Annualised APR
-12.185%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
30.0d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
30.0d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE12.185%30.0d299.8d
SHORTPAY-12.185%30.0d299.8d

/api/asset/hl-PROVE/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$1.25M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-PROVE/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.108 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
14 / 10
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$676.89K
real volume
Sell weight
$544.70K
real volume
Net delta
$132.19K
buyers net
Imbalance
10.82%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
10.8%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-PROVE/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 1.63% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-19 18:00:00Z3.0h0.206090→0.2027301.630%4
#22026-06-20 01:00:00Z2.0h0.211930→0.2088801.439%3
#32026-06-19 16:00:00Z0ms0.206090→0.2043100.864%1

/api/asset/hl-PROVE/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
105.84%
σ per bar = 0.000462
Mean return (annualised)
-915.39%
μ per bar = -0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
-8.65
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
3.90%
peak 0.21 → trough 0.21 over 1873 bars

/api/asset/hl-PROVE/risk · same metrics, JSON