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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

ORDI

ORDI-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-ordi · fresh · feed 4s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 8.77%
realized vol (ann.)
95.30%
max drawdown
1.42%
sharpe
-108.70
ulcer index
0.88%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.82%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.06%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-11826.81
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.33%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.86
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-7782.00
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.86
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
614
store
spread
—
24h Δ
8.77%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 32%
  • 24h change +8.77%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 8.0bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-ORDI/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH4.2s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$3.363
24h Δ · live
8.77%
24h vol · live
$1.1M
ORDI · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=3.3662 · σ=0.1791 · range [3.0535, 3.6117] · R²=0.439▲ RISING +8.90%σ HIGH 5.32%LAST 3.36093.61173.47223.33263.19303.0535μ = 3.3662max 3.6117min 3.0535dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.44μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $3.36
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=332,310 · μ=13292.4 · σ=14164.5 · CV=1.07BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=12017,49334,98652,47969,972μ = 1329269,971.6350%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 69972 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
4.2s
$mark $
$3.3626
$mid $
$3.3629
◉prev-day close
$3.0914
Δ24h Δ %
+8.773%
$24h vol $
$1.13M
◐open interest $
$379.09k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=3.3662 · σ=0.1791 · range [3.0535, 3.6117] · R²=0.439▲ RISING +8.90%σ HIGH 5.32%LAST 3.36093.61173.47223.33263.19303.0535μ = 3.3662max 3.6117min 3.0535dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.44μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $3.3626 · 24h 8.77% · range $[3.0535, 3.6117]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [3.0321, 3.6523] · σ=0.1791 · CV=0.05 · bodyµ=51%BULLISH +9.06%CLOSE 3.3609 vs OPEN 3.0816 (+9.06%)&#9650; CLOSE 3.36093.65233.49723.34223.18713.0321μ close = 3.3662O3.082 H3.090 L3.051 C3.086 (+0.15%)O3.082 H3.090 L3.051 C3.086 (+0.15%)O3.091 H3.139 L3.085 C3.091 (-0.02%)O3.091 H3.139 L3.085 C3.091 (-0.02%)O3.096 H3.097 L3.057 C3.070 (-0.87%)O3.096 H3.097 L3.057 C3.070 (-0.87%)O3.073 H3.073 L3.032 C3.054 (-0.63%)O3.073 H3.073 L3.032 C3.054 (-0.63%)O3.053 H3.093 L3.052 C3.087 (+1.11%)O3.053 H3.093 L3.052 C3.087 (+1.11%)O3.087 H3.132 L3.075 C3.131 (+1.40%)O3.087 H3.132 L3.075 C3.131 (+1.40%)5.4%O3.135 H3.311 L3.135 C3.304 (+5.37%)O3.135 H3.311 L3.135 C3.304 (+5.37%)O3.305 H3.391 L3.252 C3.344 (+1.17%)O3.305 H3.391 L3.252 C3.344 (+1.17%)O3.345 H3.415 L3.292 C3.329 (-0.48%)O3.345 H3.415 L3.292 C3.329 (-0.48%)O3.329 H3.483 L3.324 C3.429 (+3.01%)O3.329 H3.483 L3.324 C3.429 (+3.01%)O3.430 H3.630 L3.430 C3.596 (+4.83%)O3.430 H3.630 L3.430 C3.596 (+4.83%)O3.594 H3.614 L3.474 C3.517 (-2.13%)O3.594 H3.614 L3.474 C3.517 (-2.13%)O3.509 H3.550 L3.444 C3.536 (+0.77%)O3.509 H3.550 L3.444 C3.536 (+0.77%)O3.556 H3.614 L3.488 C3.612 (+1.57%)O3.556 H3.614 L3.488 C3.612 (+1.57%)O3.613 H3.652 L3.491 C3.522 (-2.54%)O3.613 H3.652 L3.491 C3.522 (-2.54%)O3.522 H3.576 L3.495 C3.554 (+0.88%)O3.522 H3.576 L3.495 C3.554 (+0.88%)O3.547 H3.607 L3.524 C3.537 (-0.30%)O3.547 H3.607 L3.524 C3.537 (-0.30%)O3.541 H3.552 L3.448 C3.475 (-1.87%)O3.541 H3.552 L3.448 C3.475 (-1.87%)O3.484 H3.497 L3.410 C3.415 (-1.96%)O3.484 H3.497 L3.410 C3.415 (-1.96%)O3.421 H3.506 L3.370 C3.389 (-0.94%)O3.421 H3.506 L3.370 C3.389 (-0.94%)O3.393 H3.486 L3.373 C3.466 (+2.17%)O3.393 H3.486 L3.373 C3.466 (+2.17%)O3.468 H3.472 L3.415 C3.439 (-0.84%)O3.468 H3.472 L3.415 C3.439 (-0.84%)O3.443 H3.459 L3.394 C3.398 (-1.32%)O3.443 H3.459 L3.394 C3.398 (-1.32%)O3.399 H3.418 L3.381 C3.416 (+0.49%)O3.399 H3.418 L3.381 C3.416 (+0.49%)O3.414 H3.414 L3.354 C3.361 (-1.55%)O3.414 H3.414 L3.354 C3.361 (-1.55%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=332,310 · μ=13292.4 · σ=14164.5 · CV=1.07BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=12017,49334,98652,47969,972μ = 132923,823.31 · 5.5% peak3,823.31 · 5.5% peak1,779.99 · 2.5% peak1,779.99 · 2.5% peak3,092.87 · 4.4% peak3,092.87 · 4.4% peak6,371.83 · 9.1% peak6,371.83 · 9.1% peak1,397.78 · 2.0% peak1,397.78 · 2.0% peak3,356.37 · 4.8% peak3,356.37 · 4.8% peak10,514.89 · 15.0% peak10,514.89 · 15.0% peak16,732.52 · 23.9% peak16,732.52 · 23.9% peak11,187.76 · 16.0% peak11,187.76 · 16.0% peak19,441.23 · 27.8% peak19,441.23 · 27.8% peak30,566.96 · 43.7% peak30,566.96 · 43.7% peak69,971.6369,971.63 · 100.0% peak69,971.63 · 100.0% peak13,547.89 · 19.4% peak13,547.89 · 19.4% peak15,323.52 · 21.9% peak15,323.52 · 21.9% peak14,805.96 · 21.2% peak14,805.96 · 21.2% peak7,395.87 · 10.6% peak7,395.87 · 10.6% peak8,109.9 · 11.6% peak8,109.9 · 11.6% peak10,889.8 · 15.6% peak10,889.8 · 15.6% peak19,625.31 · 28.0% peak19,625.31 · 28.0% peak30,113.38 · 43.0% peak30,113.38 · 43.0% peak5,118.7 · 7.3% peak5,118.7 · 7.3% peak9,546.94 · 13.6% peak9,546.94 · 13.6% peak5,283.79 · 7.6% peak5,283.79 · 7.6% peak9,491.91 · 13.6% peak9,491.91 · 13.6% peak4,820.07 · 6.9% peak4,820.07 · 6.9% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 332310 · peak 69972 · CV 1.07

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0044 · σ=0.0197 · skew=0.88 (right-skewed) · kurt=0.17 (mesokurtic)43210 2-219.98bpbin -219.98bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -219.98bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 3-154.11bpbin -154.11bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -154.11bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 4-88.23bpbin -88.23bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -88.23bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 3-22.36bpbin -22.36bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -22.36bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 343.51bpbin 43.51bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 43.51bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 4109.39bpbin 109.39bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 109.39bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak175.26bp 2241.13bpbin 241.13bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 241.13bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 1307.01bpbin 307.01bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 307.01bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak372.88bp438.75bp 2504.63bpbin 504.63bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 504.63bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 12 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.86 · kurt=0.22 · near 20 / mid 4 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.99 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$3.3626
Mid price
$3.3629
24h change
+8.77%
Mark–mid spread
0.89 bps
Prev-day close
$3.0914

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-0.56)
μ MEAN3.3662$95% CI: [3.2960$, 3.4364$]
σ STD DEV0.1791$σ² = 0.032 · CV = 5.32%
med MEDIAN3.4154$Q₁ 3.3036$ · Q₃ 3.5170$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.5582$ · IQR 0.2134$ (1.349σ→0.2416$)
min 3.0535$Q₁ 3.3036$med 3.4154$Q₃ 3.5170$max 3.6117$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.564left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.091platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.27
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.13
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.12
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=16.22
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.355419%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.173
σᵣ STD / h2.050823%σ²ᵣ = 4.206×10⁻⁴ · CV = 5.77×
σ ANNUALISED191.95%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 2.051%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)16.22excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)23.59strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.92right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.58mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.45
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+3113.47%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 2.15%
VaR₉₅ (h)2.145%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)2.456%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)2.371%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN6.94%11h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−2.145%VaR₉₉−2.456%ES₉₅−2.371%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 11h duration
PEAK361.17$
−6.94% drawdown over 11h
336.09$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.11× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.14× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +7.46% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
55.8 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.330 · within band
Bollinger upper
$3.6666
Bollinger MA
$3.4384
Bollinger lower
$3.2102

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.066within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.101lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.770strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+4.239significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.770
H = 0.770STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.066k=2-0.101k=3+0.371k=4+0.080k=5-0.0560+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.24)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.61very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.24)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$1.13M
Open interest (USD)
$379.09k
Vol / OI (turnover)
2.99x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
8.451× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
4.225× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.113×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 5.38% · worst -2.53% · typical |Δ| 1.59%MILD BULLISH +8.53%BEST+5.38%13hWORST-2.53%21hTYPICAL |Δ|1.59%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+8.53%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.64% · Σ -5.10%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.95% · Σ +7.57%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.76% · Σ +6.06%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +8.53%+15.73%-1.06%0.15% · 08h0.15% · 08h0.15%08h-0.69% · 09h-0.69% · 09h-0.69%09h-0.52% · 10h-0.52% · 10h-0.52%10h1.08% · 11h1.08% · 11h1.08%11h1.41% · 12h1.41% · 12h1.41%12h5.38% · 13h5.38% · 13h5.38%13h★ BEST1.22% · 14h1.22% · 14h1.22%14h-0.46% · 15h-0.46% · 15h-0.46%15h2.97% · 16h2.97% · 16h2.97%16h4.74% · 17h4.74% · 17h4.74%17h-2.21% · 18h-2.21% · 18h-2.21%18h0.54% · 19h0.54% · 19h0.54%19h2.12% · 20h2.12% · 20h2.12%20h-2.53% · 21h-2.53% · 21h-2.53%21h▼ WORST0.91% · 22h0.91% · 22h0.91%22h-0.47% · 23h-0.47% · 23h-0.47%23h-1.76% · 00h-1.76% · 00h-1.76%00h-1.73% · 01h-1.73% · 01h-1.73%01h-0.78% · 02h-0.78% · 02h-0.78%02h2.27% · 03h2.27% · 03h2.27%03h-0.78% · 04h-0.78% · 04h-0.78%04h-1.20% · 05h-1.20% · 05h-1.20%05h0.51% · 06h0.51% · 06h0.51%06h-1.62% · 07h-1.62% · 07h-1.62%07hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+7.57%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 4BREADTH50% up · 50% down
12 up bars · 12 down · best 5.38% · worst -2.53% · typical |Δ| 1.586%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +8.37%FINAL+8.37%MAX DD-7.06%RECOVERYONGOING · 11 barsMAX RUN-UP+16.60%UNDERWATER17/25 (68%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0837 · peak 1.1660 · range [0.9894, 1.1660]1.16600.9894break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.1660UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -7.06% · significant0%-7.06%▼ TROUGH -7.06%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 4 total#1 -7.06%bar 15-25 · 11 bars · ONGOING#2 -2.21%bar 12-13 · 2 bars · recovered#3 -1.21%bar 3-5 · 3 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -7.06%)RECOVERYongoing · 11 barsTIME UNDER WATER68% of session · 17/25 bars
final equity 1.0837 (8.37%) · max DD -7.06% · time-under-water 17/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +10 / −9 (53% positive) · μ=15.63 · σ=49.76MIXED EDGELAST -17.51 (-0.67σ vs μ)106.2653.130.00-53.13-106.26μ = 15.6347.4147.4156.1656.1658.8958.8990.1690.16106.26106.2661.0161.0142.9442.9447.9747.9730.2530.2520.3720.37-14.11-14.11-10.79-10.79-30.24-30.24-81.77-81.77-15.57-15.57-34.52-34.52-41.57-41.57-18.46-18.46-17.51-17.51v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -17.512 · range [-81.77, 106.26] · μ 15.626 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=189.2586 · σ=49.3877 · range [113.7950, 278.4216] · R²=0.450▼ FALLING -36.06%σ EXTREME 26.10%LAST 134.1062278.4216237.2650196.1083154.9516113.7950μ = 189.2586max 278.4216min 113.7950dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.45μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 134.11% · range [113.79%, 278.42%] · μ 189.26% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-0.169 · σ=0.221MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.382 (-0.97σ vs μ)0.4760.2380.000-0.238-0.476μ = -0.1690.2420.2420.1710.1710.0190.019-0.227-0.227-0.132-0.132-0.271-0.271-0.214-0.214-0.231-0.231-0.180-0.180-0.464-0.464-0.476-0.476-0.407-0.407-0.422-0.422-0.252-0.2520.1370.1370.0270.0270.0590.059-0.199-0.199-0.382-0.382v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.382 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
3.7008
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1572
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.8085
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4406
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.6383
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4675
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.4174
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6764
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.5405
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0326
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.2642
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7916
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.080 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=4.04e-4 · top T=3.43h (24.6%) · top-3 cover 59.7%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.2e-38.9e-46.0e-43.0e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.15e-3 · 23.7% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.15e-3 · 23.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.29e-4 · 6.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.29e-4 · 6.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.30e-4 · 2.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.30e-4 · 2.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.63e-6 · 0.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.63e-6 · 0.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.18e-4 · 10.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.18e-4 · 10.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.32e-4 · 2.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.32e-4 · 2.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.19e-3 · 24.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.19e-3 · 24.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.82e-4 · 7.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.82e-4 · 7.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.52e-4 · 11.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.52e-4 · 11.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.46e-4 · 7.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.46e-4 · 7.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.03e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.03e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.82e-5 · 0.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.82e-5 · 0.4% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=3.43h#2T=24.00h#3T=2.67hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.43h (freq 0.292) · concentrates 24.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.846e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (4730 bars · effective 5249975 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 1.65× · g(f★) 0.001%/barparametric μ/σ² 1.56× · μ 0.002% · σ 0.32%
μ per barmean
0.002%
σ per barvol
0.32%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
1.65×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
1.56×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.83×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.41×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%-0.00%-0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.0×2.0×2.9×3.9×4.9×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.39× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.001% · annualized Sharpe 13.61400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.39× · bootstrap from 4729 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.006
annualized 13.61
μ per barafter L
0.001%
σ per barafter L
0.12%
VaR 95%5%
0.03%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.15%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.2%
0.91×0.95×0.99×1.03×1.08×1.12×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 11.56σ ann 740% · Sortino 12.06 · n 4729 · ⚠ capped (n=4729 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%289%579%868%1157%1447%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)740.4%Ann. vol σ1156.0%Sharpe (ann)1205.5%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
2.8463.0323.2183.4043.5903.775t-4729t-3941t-3153t-2365t-1576t-788t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 07:57:01 UTC
Snapshot age
4.2s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 07:57:05 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
9a8da38c577b2ef11cce409cbfc0f7a8162342fa33f8afb3f7a6921226326c73 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.4¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDUruguay67.8¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,677HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.13HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,725.4

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$1.51K
bid $837 · ask $677
Depth within 10bp
$8.15K
bid $3.02K · ask $5.13K
Depth within 50bp
$62.97K
bid $17.70K · ask $45.28K
Mid price
3.362900
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
4.8bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.008
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.005
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ORDI/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K3.36403.34bp3.36472FILLED
BUY$10.00K3.36609.14bp3.36919FILLED
BUY$100.00K3.375136.15bp3.382520PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K3.36192.91bp3.36102FILLED
SELL$10.00K3.359210.89bp3.35648FILLED
SELL$100.00K3.344853.94bp3.331820PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-ORDI/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$3.0000–$4.0000★25$332.31K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ORDI/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.180 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
12 / 12
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$134.67K
real volume
Sell weight
$193.82K
real volume
Net delta
$59.15K
sellers net
Imbalance
-18.01%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
18.0%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-ORDI/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 6.17% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-19 21:00:00Z5.0h3.6117→3.38876.174%6
#22026-06-20 04:00:00Z3.0h3.4664→3.36093.044%4
#32026-06-19 18:00:00Z1.0h3.5957→3.51702.189%2

/api/asset/hl-ORDI/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 4,730 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.25M
Realized vol (annualised)
740.36%
σ per bar = 0.003231
Mean return (annualised)
8558.88%
μ per bar = 0.000016
Sharpe (rf=0)
11.56
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
17.89%
peak 3.61 → trough 2.96 over 3926 bars

/api/asset/hl-ORDI/risk · same metrics, JSON