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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

MEGA

MEGA-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-mega · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -5.01%
realized vol (ann.)
94.87%
max drawdown
1.51%
sharpe
-67.71
ulcer index
0.99%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.91%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-6477.42
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.46%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.86
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-4405.29
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.86
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
610
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-5.01%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-0.68%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 32%
  • 24h change -5.01%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 8.5bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-MEGA/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.0s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.054
24h Δ · live
-5.01%
24h vol · live
$1.4M
MEGA · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0554 · σ=0.0010 · range [0.0539, 0.0571] · R²=0.280▼ FALLING -4.85%σ NORMAL 1.78%LAST 0.05420.05710.05630.05550.05470.0539μ = 0.0554max 0.0571min 0.0539dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.28μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.05
Funding direction · live
Long fee 30.5%Short fee 69.5%SHORT FEE69.5%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.887 / 1.00 bits (89%) · high uncertainty
Long fee
30.5%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
69.5%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.000078% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=28,816,055 · μ=1152642.2 · σ=926433.3 · CV=0.80BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1001,056,3012,112,6033,168,9044,225,205μ = 11526424,225,20550%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 4225205 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.0s
$mark $
$0.0542
$mid $
$0.0542
◉prev-day close
$0.057
Δ24h Δ %
-5.013%
$24h vol $
$1.44M
◐open interest $
$6.77M
%funding (1h)
-0.000078%
%funding (yr)
-0.68%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0554 · σ=0.0010 · range [0.0539, 0.0571] · R²=0.280▼ FALLING -4.85%σ NORMAL 1.78%LAST 0.05420.05710.05630.05550.05470.0539μ = 0.0554max 0.0571min 0.0539dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.28μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0542 · 24h -5.01% · range $[0.0539, 0.0571]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 11 · down 14 (44% up) · range [0.0536, 0.0594] · σ=0.0010 · CV=0.02 · bodyµ=49%BEARISH -7.49%CLOSE 0.0542 vs OPEN 0.0586 (-7.49%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.05420.05940.05790.05650.05510.0536μ close = 0.0554-2.8%O0.059 H0.059 L0.057 C0.057 (-2.77%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.057 C0.057 (-2.77%)O0.057 H0.057 L0.056 C0.056 (-1.28%)O0.057 H0.057 L0.056 C0.056 (-1.28%)O0.056 H0.056 L0.055 C0.056 (-0.87%)O0.056 H0.056 L0.055 C0.056 (-0.87%)O0.056 H0.056 L0.055 C0.055 (-1.23%)O0.056 H0.056 L0.055 C0.055 (-1.23%)O0.055 H0.055 L0.054 C0.054 (-1.39%)O0.055 H0.055 L0.054 C0.054 (-1.39%)O0.054 H0.055 L0.054 C0.055 (+0.84%)O0.054 H0.055 L0.054 C0.055 (+0.84%)O0.055 H0.057 L0.055 C0.056 (+2.38%)O0.055 H0.057 L0.055 C0.056 (+2.38%)O0.056 H0.057 L0.056 C0.056 (+0.03%)O0.056 H0.057 L0.056 C0.056 (+0.03%)O0.056 H0.057 L0.056 C0.057 (+1.30%)O0.056 H0.057 L0.056 C0.057 (+1.30%)O0.057 H0.058 L0.056 C0.056 (-1.12%)O0.057 H0.058 L0.056 C0.056 (-1.12%)O0.056 H0.057 L0.056 C0.056 (+0.59%)O0.056 H0.057 L0.056 C0.056 (+0.59%)O0.056 H0.056 L0.056 C0.056 (-0.58%)O0.056 H0.056 L0.056 C0.056 (-0.58%)O0.056 H0.057 L0.055 C0.056 (-0.43%)O0.056 H0.057 L0.055 C0.056 (-0.43%)O0.056 H0.056 L0.055 C0.055 (-0.75%)O0.056 H0.056 L0.055 C0.055 (-0.75%)O0.055 H0.056 L0.055 C0.055 (-0.69%)O0.055 H0.056 L0.055 C0.055 (-0.69%)O0.055 H0.056 L0.055 C0.056 (+1.73%)O0.055 H0.056 L0.055 C0.056 (+1.73%)O0.056 H0.058 L0.056 C0.057 (+1.95%)O0.056 H0.058 L0.056 C0.057 (+1.95%)O0.057 H0.059 L0.055 C0.056 (-2.28%)O0.057 H0.059 L0.055 C0.056 (-2.28%)O0.056 H0.056 L0.054 C0.054 (-2.52%)O0.056 H0.056 L0.054 C0.054 (-2.52%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (-0.41%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (-0.41%)O0.054 H0.055 L0.054 C0.054 (+0.12%)O0.054 H0.055 L0.054 C0.054 (+0.12%)O0.054 H0.055 L0.054 C0.054 (+0.21%)O0.054 H0.055 L0.054 C0.054 (+0.21%)O0.054 H0.055 L0.054 C0.054 (+0.33%)O0.054 H0.055 L0.054 C0.054 (+0.33%)O0.054 H0.055 L0.054 C0.055 (+0.68%)O0.054 H0.055 L0.054 C0.055 (+0.68%)O0.055 H0.055 L0.054 C0.054 (-1.11%)O0.055 H0.055 L0.054 C0.054 (-1.11%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=28,816,055 · μ=1152642.2 · σ=926433.3 · CV=0.80BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1001,056,3012,112,6033,168,9044,225,205μ = 11526422,939,826 · 69.6% peak2,939,826 · 69.6% peak4,225,2054,225,205 · 100.0% peak4,225,205 · 100.0% peak1,022,280 · 24.2% peak1,022,280 · 24.2% peak1,507,743 · 35.7% peak1,507,743 · 35.7% peak1,101,114 · 26.1% peak1,101,114 · 26.1% peak1,479,784 · 35.0% peak1,479,784 · 35.0% peak741,804 · 17.6% peak741,804 · 17.6% peak771,905 · 18.3% peak771,905 · 18.3% peak345,120 · 8.2% peak345,120 · 8.2% peak1,124,240 · 26.6% peak1,124,240 · 26.6% peak2,142,782 · 50.7% peak2,142,782 · 50.7% peak272,878 · 6.5% peak272,878 · 6.5% peak1,004,131 · 23.8% peak1,004,131 · 23.8% peak268,779 · 6.4% peak268,779 · 6.4% peak983,665 · 23.3% peak983,665 · 23.3% peak189,467 · 4.5% peak189,467 · 4.5% peak1,004,806 · 23.8% peak1,004,806 · 23.8% peak2,170,601 · 51.4% peak2,170,601 · 51.4% peak1,386,403 · 32.8% peak1,386,403 · 32.8% peak270,636 · 6.4% peak270,636 · 6.4% peak1,151,528 · 27.3% peak1,151,528 · 27.3% peak709,386 · 16.8% peak709,386 · 16.8% peak1,140,179 · 27.0% peak1,140,179 · 27.0% peak656,252 · 15.5% peak656,252 · 15.5% peak205,541 · 4.9% peak205,541 · 4.9% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 28816055 · peak 4225205 · CV 0.80

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0020 · σ=0.0123 · skew=0.17 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.56 (mesokurtic)43210 1-264.10bpbin -264.10bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -264.10bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 1-219.70bpbin -219.70bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -219.70bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak-175.30bp 4-130.89bpbin -130.89bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -130.89bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 4-86.49bpbin -86.49bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -86.49bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 3-42.09bpbin -42.09bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -42.09bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 22.31bpbin 2.31bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 2.31bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 446.72bpbin 46.72bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 46.72bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 191.12bpbin 91.12bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 91.12bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 1135.52bpbin 135.52bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 135.52bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 2179.92bpbin 179.92bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 179.92bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 1224.32bpbin 224.32bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 224.32bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.12 · kurt=-0.34 · near 24 / mid 0 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.02 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0542
Mid price
$0.0542
24h change
-5.01%
Mark–mid spread
2.03 bps
Prev-day close
$0.057

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.42)
μ MEAN0.0554$95% CI: [0.0550$, 0.0558$]
σ STD DEV0.0010$σ² = 0.010×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.78%
med MEDIAN0.0558$Q₁ 0.0544$ · Q₃ 0.0561$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0032$ · IQR 0.0016$ (1.349σ→0.0013$)
min 0.0539$Q₁ 0.0544$med 0.0558$Q₃ 0.0561$max 0.0571$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.053approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.422platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.36
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.81
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.20
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-14.93
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.207201%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.160
σᵣ STD / h1.298582%σ²ᵣ = 1.686×10⁻⁴ · CV = 6.27×
σ ANNUALISED121.54%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.299%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-14.93negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-14.27downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.13approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.12mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.96
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1815.08%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 2.19%
VaR₉₅ (h)2.188%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)2.737%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)2.589%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN5.53%3h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−2.188%VaR₉₉−2.737%ES₉₅−2.589%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 3h duration
PEAK5.71$
−5.53% drawdown over 3h
5.39$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.18× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.25× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +5.86% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
39.7 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.205 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0573
Bollinger MA
$0.0554
Bollinger lower
$0.0534

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: TRENDING · variance ratio > 1
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.236within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.246lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.890strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-2.990significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.890
H = 0.890STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.236k=2-0.246k=3-0.344k=4-0.160k=5-0.0560+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.99)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONTRENDING · variance ratio > 1from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.99)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$1.44M
Open interest (USD)
$6.77M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.21x
1h funding
-0.000078%
Funding (annualised)
-0.68%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.47% · worst -2.86% · typical |Δ| 1.06%MILD BEARISH -4.97%BEST+2.47%13hWORST-2.86%01hTYPICAL |Δ|1.06%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-4.97%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.65% · Σ -5.18%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.05% · Σ -0.43%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.08% · Σ +0.63%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -4.97%+0.21%-5.48%-1.15% · 08h-1.15% · 08h-1.15%08h-0.90% · 09h-0.90% · 09h-0.90%09h-1.42% · 10h-1.42% · 10h-1.42%10h-1.47% · 11h-1.47% · 11h-1.47%11h0.88% · 12h0.88% · 12h0.88%12h2.47% · 13h2.47% · 13h2.47%13h★ BEST0.01% · 14h0.01% · 14h0.01%14h1.16% · 15h1.16% · 15h1.16%15h-1.07% · 16h-1.07% · 16h-1.07%16h0.53% · 17h0.53% · 17h0.53%17h-0.57% · 18h-0.57% · 18h-0.57%18h-0.43% · 19h-0.43% · 19h-0.43%19h-0.72% · 20h-0.72% · 20h-0.72%20h-0.73% · 21h-0.73% · 21h-0.73%21h1.73% · 22h1.73% · 22h1.73%22h1.88% · 23h1.88% · 23h1.88%23h-2.31% · 00h-2.31% · 00h-2.31%00h-2.86% · 01h-2.86% · 01h-2.86%01h▼ WORST-0.51% · 02h-0.51% · 02h-0.51%02h0.15% · 03h0.15% · 03h0.15%03h0.44% · 04h0.44% · 04h0.44%04h0.39% · 05h0.39% · 05h0.39%05h0.62% · 06h0.62% · 06h0.62%06h-1.09% · 07h-1.09% · 07h-1.09%07hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+0.63%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 4BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 2.47% · worst -2.86% · typical |Δ| 1.063%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -5.04%FINAL-5.04%MAX DD-5.60%RECOVERYONGOING · 8 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.09%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9496 · peak 1.0009 · range [0.9448, 1.0009]1.00090.9448break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0009UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -5.60% · significant0%-5.60%▼ TROUGH -5.60%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -5.60%bar 18-25 · 8 bars · ONGOING#2 -4.85%bar 2-16 · 15 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -5.60%)RECOVERYongoing · 8 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9496 (-5.04%) · max DD -5.60% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-8.72 · σ=30.03UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -0.09 (+0.29σ vs μ)84.8042.400.00-42.40-84.80μ = -8.72-15.56-15.56-4.46-4.4616.3716.3720.9920.9952.6152.6131.0731.07-6.95-6.95-19.98-19.98-84.80-84.80-2.91-2.9114.4714.47-5.62-5.62-23.74-23.74-22.14-22.14-15.09-15.09-28.19-28.19-50.70-50.70-21.03-21.03-0.09-0.09v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.087 · range [-84.80, 52.61] · μ -8.723 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=127.2520 · σ=41.0149 · range [51.3344, 186.1362] · R²=0.007▼ FALLING -58.43%σ EXTREME 32.23%LAST 62.1344186.1362152.4358118.735385.034951.3344μ = 127.2520max 186.1362min 51.3344dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 62.13% · range [51.33%, 186.14%] · μ 127.25% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +10 / −9 (53% positive) · μ=0.013 · σ=0.330CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST -0.122 (-0.41σ vs μ)0.5720.2860.000-0.286-0.572μ = 0.0130.3490.3490.3630.3630.2010.201-0.179-0.179-0.252-0.252-0.313-0.313-0.572-0.572-0.519-0.519-0.416-0.416-0.117-0.1170.3890.389-0.101-0.1010.2450.2450.2440.2440.2830.2830.0300.0300.5200.5200.2220.222-0.122-0.122v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.122 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.0857
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9581
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
7.6368
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1762
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.0359
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2809
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-1.6469
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0996
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (9 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3956
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0790
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.7016
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4829
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.214 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.63e-4 · top T=8.00h (35.4%) · top-3 cover 70.9%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)6.9e-45.2e-43.5e-41.7e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 7.57e-5 · 3.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 7.57e-5 · 3.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 7.13e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 7.13e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.94e-4 · 35.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.94e-4 · 35.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.85e-5 · 4.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.85e-5 · 4.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.28e-4 · 21.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.28e-4 · 21.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 6.67e-5 · 3.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 6.67e-5 · 3.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.67e-4 · 13.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.67e-4 · 13.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.52e-6 · 0.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.52e-6 · 0.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.52e-5 · 3.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.52e-5 · 3.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.11e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.11e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.56e-5 · 4.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.56e-5 · 4.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.23e-5 · 2.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.23e-5 · 2.2% energy50% by T=4.8h#1 dominantT=8.00h#2T=4.80h#3T=3.43hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 8.00h (freq 0.125) · concentrates 35.4% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.960e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (4726 bars · effective 5249975 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 0.92× · g(f★) 0.001%/barparametric μ/σ² 0.91× · μ 0.002% · σ 0.51%
μ per barmean
0.002%
σ per barvol
0.51%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.92×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
0.91×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.46×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.23×
industry default — survives model error
-0.01%-0.00%-0.00%-0.00%0.00%0.0×0.7×1.3×2.0×2.6×3.3×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.23× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.000% · annualized Sharpe 11.49400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.23× · bootstrap from 4725 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.005
annualized 11.49
μ per barafter L
0.001%
σ per barafter L
0.12%
VaR 95%5%
0.03%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.16%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.3%
0.91×0.95×0.99×1.03×1.07×1.11×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 10.66σ ann 1000% · Sortino 11.22 · n 4725 · ⚠ capped (n=4725 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%269%539%808%1077%1347%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)1000.0%Ann. vol σ1065.9%Sharpe (ann)1122.2%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0400.0470.0530.0600.0670.073t-4725t-3938t-3150t-2363t-1575t-788t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 07:56:19 UTC
Snapshot age
2.0s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 07:56:22 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
263afdc990a1580c71c2fd09738f0509828682c4e1c369cdccd78ba314a92989 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.4¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDUruguay67.8¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,673HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.1HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,725.2

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$3.54K
bid $1.65K · ask $1.89K
Depth within 10bp
$7.26K
bid $3.41K · ask $3.85K
Depth within 50bp
$47.16K
bid $24.71K · ask $22.45K
Mid price
0.054200
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
3.9bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.050
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.313
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-MEGA/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0542193.32bp0.0542272FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.05427112.97bp0.05430013FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.05430920.11bp0.05436120PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0541793.97bp0.0541783FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.05413611.85bp0.05409016FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.05410517.61bp0.05405420PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-7.803e-7
-0.00008% / hr
Annualised APR
-0.684%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
1.46y
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
1.46y
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE0.684%1.46y14.63y
SHORTPAY-0.684%1.46y14.63y

/api/asset/hl-MEGA/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$28.82M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-MEGA/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.201 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$10.33M
real volume
Sell weight
$15.54M
real volume
Net delta
$5.21M
sellers net
Imbalance
-20.14%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
20.1%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-MEGA/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 5.53% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-20 00:00:00Z3.0h0.057074→0.0539165.533%4
#22026-06-19 08:00:00Z4.0h0.056955→0.0542094.821%5
#32026-06-19 16:00:00Z5.0h0.056713→0.0550472.938%6

/api/asset/hl-MEGA/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 4,726 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.25M
Realized vol (annualised)
1177.01%
σ per bar = 0.005137
Mean return (annualised)
12545.26%
μ per bar = 0.000024
Sharpe (rf=0)
10.66
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
19.11%
peak 0.07 → trough 0.05 over 4225 bars

/api/asset/hl-MEGA/risk · same metrics, JSON