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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

GALA

GALA-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-gala · fresh · feed 6s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 1.65%
realized vol (ann.)
73.57%
max drawdown
0.92%
sharpe
-4.50
ulcer index
0.46%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.34%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-724.71
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.87%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.99
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-379.38
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.99
upside/downside
roll spread
1.7 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
615
store
spread
—
24h Δ
1.65%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 30%
  • 24h change +1.65%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-GALA/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5.7s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.003
24h Δ · live
1.65%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
GALA · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0026 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0025, 0.0026] · R²=0.646▲ RISING +1.69%σ LOW 0.71%LAST 0.00260.00260.00260.00260.00250.0025μ = 0.0026max 0.0026min 0.0025dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.65μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.00
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=33,920,457 · μ=1356818.3 · σ=1053811.6 · CV=0.78STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1301,454,2822,908,5654,362,8475,817,129μ = 13568185,817,12950%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 5817129 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5.7s
$mark $
$0.0026
$mid $
$0.0026
◉prev-day close
$0.0025
Δ24h Δ %
+1.653%
$24h vol $
$83.95k
◐open interest $
$248.31k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0026 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0025, 0.0026] · R²=0.646▲ RISING +1.69%σ LOW 0.71%LAST 0.00260.00260.00260.00260.00250.0025μ = 0.0026max 0.0026min 0.0025dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.65μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0026 · 24h 1.65% · range $[0.0025, 0.0026]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 14 · down 11 (56% up) · range [0.0025, 0.0026] · σ=0.0000 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=46%BULLISH +0.86%CLOSE 0.0026 vs OPEN 0.0026 (+0.86%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.00260.00260.00260.00260.00250.0025μ close = 0.0026O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.82%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.82%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.08%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.08%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.35%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.35%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.20%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.20%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.16%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.16%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.43%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.43%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.27%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.27%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.23%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.23%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.20%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.20%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.27%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.27%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.31%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.31%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.23%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.23%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.43%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.43%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.43%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.43%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.70%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.70%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.67%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.67%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.20%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.20%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.00%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.00%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.39%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.39%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.93%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.93%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.55%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.55%)0.9%O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.94%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.94%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.08%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.08%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.27%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.27%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.84%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.84%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=33,920,457 · μ=1356818.3 · σ=1053811.6 · CV=0.78STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1301,454,2822,908,5654,362,8475,817,129μ = 13568181,072,693 · 18.4% peak1,072,693 · 18.4% peak1,307,825 · 22.5% peak1,307,825 · 22.5% peak2,717,190 · 46.7% peak2,717,190 · 46.7% peak1,132,603 · 19.5% peak1,132,603 · 19.5% peak923,930 · 15.9% peak923,930 · 15.9% peak785,242 · 13.5% peak785,242 · 13.5% peak1,656,165 · 28.5% peak1,656,165 · 28.5% peak1,493,954 · 25.7% peak1,493,954 · 25.7% peak710,397 · 12.2% peak710,397 · 12.2% peak1,557,073 · 26.8% peak1,557,073 · 26.8% peak1,413,105 · 24.3% peak1,413,105 · 24.3% peak2,085,360 · 35.8% peak2,085,360 · 35.8% peak668,311 · 11.5% peak668,311 · 11.5% peak830,904 · 14.3% peak830,904 · 14.3% peak808,533 · 13.9% peak808,533 · 13.9% peak1,043,250 · 17.9% peak1,043,250 · 17.9% peak750,949 · 12.9% peak750,949 · 12.9% peak5,817,1295,817,129 · 100.0% peak5,817,129 · 100.0% peak1,120,605 · 19.3% peak1,120,605 · 19.3% peak845,653 · 14.5% peak845,653 · 14.5% peak857,002 · 14.7% peak857,002 · 14.7% peak1,082,410 · 18.6% peak1,082,410 · 18.6% peak1,788,781 · 30.8% peak1,788,781 · 30.8% peak631,923 · 10.9% peak631,923 · 10.9% peak819,470 · 14.1% peak819,470 · 14.1% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 33920457 · peak 5817129 · CV 0.78

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0007 · σ=0.0040 · skew=-0.02 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.68 (mesokurtic)43210 4-56.20bpbin -56.20bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -56.20bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak-42.88bp 2-29.55bpbin -29.55bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -29.55bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 2-16.22bpbin -16.22bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -16.22bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 2-2.89bpbin -2.89bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -2.89bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 410.44bpbin 10.44bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 10.44bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 423.76bpbin 23.76bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 23.76bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 137.09bpbin 37.09bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 37.09bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 350.42bpbin 50.42bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 50.42bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 163.75bpbin 63.75bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 63.75bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak77.08bp 190.41bpbin 90.41bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 90.41bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 14 · negative 10
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.01 · kurt=-0.59 · near 21 / mid 3 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0026
Mid price
$0.0026
24h change
+1.65%
Mark–mid spread
3.87 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0025

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.68)
μ MEAN0.0026$95% CI: [0.0025$, 0.0026$]
σ STD DEV0.0000$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.71%
med MEDIAN0.0026$Q₁ 0.0025$ · Q₃ 0.0026$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0001$ · IQR 0.0000$ (1.349σ→0.0000$)
min 0.0025$Q₁ 0.0025$med 0.0026$Q₃ 0.0026$max 0.0026$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.676right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.312mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.13
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.23
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.68
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=15.43
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.069948%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.165
σᵣ STD / h0.424291%σ²ᵣ = 0.180×10⁻⁴ · CV = 6.07×
σ ANNUALISED39.71%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.424%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)15.43excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)16.35strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.01approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.44mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside ≈ total vol · symmetricSoR / SR = 1.06
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+612.74%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.59%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.585%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.619%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.608%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN0.94%4h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.585%VaR₉₉−0.619%ES₉₅−0.608%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEshallow drawdown · 4h duration
PEAK0.26$
−0.94% drawdown over 4h
0.25$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.04× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.06× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONshallow drawdownrecovery needed: +0.95% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
60.4 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.827 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0026
Bollinger MA
$0.0026
Bollinger lower
$0.0025

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.180within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.000lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.067strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+6.480significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.067
H = 1.067STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=5
k=1-0.180k=2-0.000k=3-0.204k=4-0.329k=5 ★+0.4400+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.48)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.48)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$83.95k
Open interest (USD)
$248.31k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.34x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.97% · worst -0.63% · typical |Δ| 0.35%MILD BULLISH +1.68%BEST+0.97%04hWORST-0.63%21hTYPICAL |Δ|0.35%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+1.68%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.12% · Σ +0.93%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.09% · Σ +0.71%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.04%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +1.68%+2.26%-0.35%-0.04% · 08h-0.04% · 08h-0.04%08h-0.32% · 09h-0.32% · 09h-0.32%09h0.08% · 10h0.08% · 10h0.08%10h-0.04% · 11h-0.04% · 11h-0.04%11h0.51% · 12h0.51% · 12h0.51%12h0.55% · 13h0.55% · 13h0.55%13h-0.27% · 14h-0.27% · 14h-0.27%14h0.23% · 15h0.23% · 15h0.23%15h-0.16% · 16h-0.16% · 16h-0.16%16h0.27% · 17h0.27% · 17h0.27%17h-0.16% · 18h-0.16% · 18h-0.16%18h-0.55% · 19h-0.55% · 19h-0.55%19h0.39% · 20h0.39% · 20h0.39%20h-0.63% · 21h-0.63% · 21h-0.63%21h▼ WORST0.67% · 22h0.67% · 22h0.67%22h0.20% · 23h0.20% · 23h0.20%23h0.16% · 00h0.16% · 00h0.16%00h0.08% · 01h0.08% · 01h0.08%01h-0.59% · 02h-0.59% · 02h-0.59%02h0.51% · 03h0.51% · 03h0.51%03h0.97% · 04h0.97% · 04h0.97%04h★ BEST0.12% · 05h0.12% · 05h0.12%05h0.27% · 06h0.27% · 06h0.27%06h-0.58% · 07h-0.58% · 07h-0.58%07hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+0.93%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 2BREADTH58% up · 42% down
14 up bars · 10 down · best 0.97% · worst -0.63% · typical |Δ| 0.347%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +1.67%FINAL+1.67%MAX DD-0.94%RECOVERYONGOING · 6 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.26%UNDERWATER16/25 (64%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0167 · peak 1.0226 · range [0.9965, 1.0226]1.02260.9965break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0226UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -0.94% · shallow0%-0.94%▼ TROUGH -0.94%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 5 total#1 -0.94%bar 12-17 · 6 bars · recovered#2 -0.59%bar 20-21 · 2 bars · recovered#3 -0.58%bar 25-25 · 1 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYshallow (max -0.94%)RECOVERYongoing · 14 barsTIME UNDER WATER64% of session · 16/25 bars
final equity 1.0167 (1.67%) · max DD -0.94% · time-under-water 16/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +15 / −4 (79% positive) · μ=19.14 · σ=25.03PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 17.77 (-0.05σ vs μ)52.3126.160.00-26.16-52.31μ = 19.1434.1434.1421.2621.2651.6551.6537.0037.0052.3152.3122.8022.80-31.26-31.261.721.72-30.98-30.980.000.00-2.34-2.347.047.0430.9830.98-3.67-3.6736.6036.6040.1240.1237.5737.5741.0241.0217.7717.77v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 17.767 · range [-31.26, 52.31] · μ 19.143 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=40.5282 · σ=8.7008 · range [29.2961, 57.4648] · R²=0.711▲ RISING +80.33%σ EXTREME 21.47%LAST 57.464857.464850.422643.380536.338329.2961μ = 40.5282max 57.4648min 29.2961dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.71μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 57.46% · range [29.30%, 57.46%] · μ 40.53% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-0.250 · σ=0.281MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.026 (+0.80σ vs μ)0.6740.3370.000-0.337-0.674μ = -0.2500.3460.346-0.026-0.026-0.235-0.235-0.248-0.248-0.202-0.202-0.674-0.674-0.186-0.186-0.391-0.391-0.565-0.565-0.601-0.601-0.491-0.491-0.553-0.553-0.606-0.606-0.217-0.217-0.183-0.1830.0830.0830.0230.0230.0110.011-0.026-0.026v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.026 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.1950
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9071
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
11.8396
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0367
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.2318
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6583
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.0031
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3158
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (15 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.5039
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0408
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.8419
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3998
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.744 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.79e-5 · top T=2.40h (29.9%) · top-3 cover 55.1%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)6.4e-54.8e-53.2e-51.6e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.23e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.23e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.82e-5 · 8.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.82e-5 · 8.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.29e-5 · 10.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.29e-5 · 10.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.13e-5 · 14.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.13e-5 · 14.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.31e-5 · 6.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.31e-5 · 6.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.44e-5 · 6.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.44e-5 · 6.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.60e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.60e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.26e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.26e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.24e-5 · 10.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.24e-5 · 10.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.45e-5 · 29.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.45e-5 · 29.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.93e-6 · 2.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.93e-6 · 2.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.65e-5 · 7.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.65e-5 · 7.7% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=6.00h#3T=8.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 29.9% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.153e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (4731 bars · effective 5249975 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² -0.33× · μ -0.000% · σ 0.16%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.16%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-0.33×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×0.4×0.7×1.1×1.5×1.8×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -1.33400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4730 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.001
annualized -1.33
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.02%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.02%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
0.94×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.06×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -429% · APY -100% · Sharpe -1.20σ ann 358% · Sortino -0.89 · n 4730
-515%-326%-137%52%241%430%-429.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)358.5%Ann. vol σ-119.7%Sharpe (ann)-88.9%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0020.0020.0030.0030.0030.003t-4730t-3942t-3153t-2365t-1577t-788t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 07:57:01 UTC
Snapshot age
5.7s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 07:57:07 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
f34c3330f5648363a94eeffb3aec73e945db8ff9985d156f365b05a78267943e · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.4¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDUruguay67.8¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,677HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.13HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,725.4

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$867
bid $782 · ask $84
Depth within 10bp
$1.62K
bid $782 · ask $838
Depth within 50bp
$40.67K
bid $12.05K · ask $28.62K
Mid price
0.002582
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
7.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.251
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.270
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-GALA/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0025848.05bp0.0025853FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.00258616.42bp0.0025874FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.00260382.78bp0.00264920PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0025815.56bp0.0025792FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.00257621.76bp0.0025727FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.002551120.75bp0.00251620PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-GALA/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$33.92M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-GALA/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.195 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
14 / 10
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$19.62M
real volume
Sell weight
$13.23M
real volume
Net delta
$6.39M
buyers net
Imbalance
19.46%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
19.5%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-GALA/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 0.78% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-19 21:00:00Z0ms0.002557→0.0025370.782%1
#22026-06-19 19:00:00Z0ms0.002561→0.0025430.703%1
#32026-06-20 02:00:00Z0ms0.002565→0.0025500.585%1

/api/asset/hl-GALA/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 4,731 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.25M
Realized vol (annualised)
358.45%
σ per bar = 0.001564
Mean return (annualised)
-429.04%
μ per bar = -0.000001
Sharpe (rf=0)
-1.20
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
9.46%
peak 0.00 → trough 0.00 over 3974 bars

/api/asset/hl-GALA/risk · same metrics, JSON