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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

FET

FET-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-fet · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -1.84%
realized vol (ann.)
69.83%
max drawdown
1.27%
sharpe
-119.63
ulcer index
0.76%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.69%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.01%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-10929.64
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.25%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.82
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-6680.76
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.82
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
764
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-1.84%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 39%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -1.84%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-FET/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.3s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.189
24h Δ · live
-1.84%
24h vol · live
$0.7M
FET · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.1921 · σ=0.0021 · range [0.1891, 0.1967] · R²=0.299▼ FALLING -1.64%σ NORMAL 1.11%LAST 0.18910.19670.19480.19290.19100.1891μ = 0.1921max 0.1967min 0.1891dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.30μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.19
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=3,564,864 · μ=142594.6 · σ=130233.5 · CV=0.91BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=110153,201306,402459,603612,804μ = 142595612,80450%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 612804 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.3s
$mark $
$0.1892
$mid $
$0.1892
◉prev-day close
$0.1927
Δ24h Δ %
-1.837%
$24h vol $
$684.34k
◐open interest $
$6.85M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.1921 · σ=0.0021 · range [0.1891, 0.1967] · R²=0.299▼ FALLING -1.64%σ NORMAL 1.11%LAST 0.18910.19670.19480.19290.19100.1891μ = 0.1921max 0.1967min 0.1891dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.30μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.1892 · 24h -1.84% · range $[0.1891, 0.1967]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 13 · down 12 (52% up) · range [0.1886, 0.1978] · σ=0.0021 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=56%BEARISH -1.65%CLOSE 0.1891 vs OPEN 0.1923 (-1.65%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.18910.19780.19550.19320.19090.1886μ close = 0.1921O0.192 H0.193 L0.192 C0.192 (-0.01%)O0.192 H0.193 L0.192 C0.192 (-0.01%)O0.193 H0.193 L0.190 C0.191 (-0.97%)O0.193 H0.193 L0.190 C0.191 (-0.97%)O0.191 H0.192 L0.190 C0.191 (+0.00%)O0.191 H0.192 L0.190 C0.191 (+0.00%)O0.191 H0.192 L0.190 C0.192 (+0.35%)O0.191 H0.192 L0.190 C0.192 (+0.35%)O0.192 H0.195 L0.191 C0.194 (+1.32%)O0.192 H0.195 L0.191 C0.194 (+1.32%)O0.194 H0.198 L0.193 C0.197 (+1.26%)O0.194 H0.198 L0.193 C0.197 (+1.26%)O0.197 H0.198 L0.195 C0.195 (-0.80%)O0.197 H0.198 L0.195 C0.195 (-0.80%)O0.195 H0.196 L0.195 C0.196 (+0.48%)O0.195 H0.196 L0.195 C0.196 (+0.48%)O0.196 H0.197 L0.194 C0.194 (-1.20%)O0.196 H0.197 L0.194 C0.194 (-1.20%)O0.194 H0.196 L0.194 C0.196 (+1.02%)O0.194 H0.196 L0.194 C0.196 (+1.02%)-1.7%O0.196 H0.196 L0.192 C0.192 (-1.74%)O0.196 H0.196 L0.192 C0.192 (-1.74%)O0.192 H0.193 L0.191 C0.191 (-0.40%)O0.192 H0.193 L0.191 C0.191 (-0.40%)O0.191 H0.193 L0.191 C0.193 (+0.62%)O0.191 H0.193 L0.191 C0.193 (+0.62%)O0.193 H0.193 L0.190 C0.190 (-1.22%)O0.193 H0.193 L0.190 C0.190 (-1.22%)O0.191 H0.192 L0.190 C0.192 (+0.65%)O0.191 H0.192 L0.190 C0.192 (+0.65%)O0.192 H0.193 L0.191 C0.193 (+0.56%)O0.192 H0.193 L0.191 C0.193 (+0.56%)O0.193 H0.194 L0.191 C0.191 (-0.65%)O0.193 H0.194 L0.191 C0.191 (-0.65%)O0.191 H0.192 L0.191 C0.191 (+0.06%)O0.191 H0.192 L0.191 C0.191 (+0.06%)O0.192 H0.192 L0.189 C0.190 (-0.98%)O0.192 H0.192 L0.189 C0.190 (-0.98%)O0.189 H0.190 L0.189 C0.189 (+0.01%)O0.189 H0.190 L0.189 C0.189 (+0.01%)O0.190 H0.191 L0.189 C0.190 (+0.36%)O0.190 H0.191 L0.189 C0.190 (+0.36%)O0.190 H0.193 L0.190 C0.192 (+0.88%)O0.190 H0.193 L0.190 C0.192 (+0.88%)O0.192 H0.192 L0.191 C0.191 (-0.45%)O0.192 H0.192 L0.191 C0.191 (-0.45%)O0.191 H0.191 L0.189 C0.190 (-0.62%)O0.191 H0.191 L0.189 C0.190 (-0.62%)O0.190 H0.190 L0.189 C0.189 (-0.34%)O0.190 H0.190 L0.189 C0.189 (-0.34%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=3,564,864 · μ=142594.6 · σ=130233.5 · CV=0.91BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=110153,201306,402459,603612,804μ = 14259546,310 · 7.6% peak46,310 · 7.6% peak84,023 · 13.7% peak84,023 · 13.7% peak63,658 · 10.4% peak63,658 · 10.4% peak48,066 · 7.8% peak48,066 · 7.8% peak196,028 · 32.0% peak196,028 · 32.0% peak612,804612,804 · 100.0% peak612,804 · 100.0% peak242,060 · 39.5% peak242,060 · 39.5% peak60,528 · 9.9% peak60,528 · 9.9% peak114,614 · 18.7% peak114,614 · 18.7% peak58,627 · 9.6% peak58,627 · 9.6% peak301,602 · 49.2% peak301,602 · 49.2% peak92,409 · 15.1% peak92,409 · 15.1% peak40,058 · 6.5% peak40,058 · 6.5% peak86,172 · 14.1% peak86,172 · 14.1% peak165,769 · 27.1% peak165,769 · 27.1% peak91,106 · 14.9% peak91,106 · 14.9% peak312,589 · 51.0% peak312,589 · 51.0% peak54,970 · 9.0% peak54,970 · 9.0% peak51,390 · 8.4% peak51,390 · 8.4% peak255,012 · 41.6% peak255,012 · 41.6% peak93,830 · 15.3% peak93,830 · 15.3% peak156,789 · 25.6% peak156,789 · 25.6% peak224,240 · 36.6% peak224,240 · 36.6% peak102,747 · 16.8% peak102,747 · 16.8% peak9,463 · 1.5% peak9,463 · 1.5% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 3564864 · peak 612804 · CV 0.91

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0005 · σ=0.0081 · skew=-0.09 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.87 (mesokurtic)32210 1-171.39bpbin -171.39bp · n=1 · 33.3% peakbin -171.39bp · n=1 · 33.3% peak-143.96bp 2-116.53bpbin -116.53bp · n=2 · 66.7% peakbin -116.53bp · n=2 · 66.7% peak 2-89.10bpbin -89.10bp · n=2 · 66.7% peakbin -89.10bp · n=2 · 66.7% peak 3-61.67bpbin -61.67bp · n=3 · 100.0% peakbin -61.67bp · n=3 · 100.0% peak 3-34.23bpbin -34.23bp · n=3 · 100.0% peakbin -34.23bp · n=3 · 100.0% peak 2-6.80bpbin -6.80bp · n=2 · 66.7% peakbin -6.80bp · n=2 · 66.7% peak 220.63bpbin 20.63bp · n=2 · 66.7% peakbin 20.63bp · n=2 · 66.7% peak 348.06bpbin 48.06bp · n=3 · 100.0% peakbin 48.06bp · n=3 · 100.0% peak 375.49bpbin 75.49bp · n=3 · 100.0% peakbin 75.49bp · n=3 · 100.0% peak 1102.93bpbin 102.93bp · n=1 · 33.3% peakbin 102.93bp · n=1 · 33.3% peak 2130.36bpbin 130.36bp · n=2 · 66.7% peakbin 130.36bp · n=2 · 66.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.08 · kurt=-0.84 · near 24 / mid 0 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.02 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.1892
Mid price
$0.1892
24h change
-1.84%
Mark–mid spread
1.85 bps
Prev-day close
$0.1927

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.68)
μ MEAN0.1921$95% CI: [0.1913$, 0.1929$]
σ STD DEV0.0021$σ² = 0.046×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.11%
med MEDIAN0.1916$Q₁ 0.1908$ · Q₃ 0.1929$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0076$ · IQR 0.0021$ (1.349σ→0.0029$)
min 0.1891$Q₁ 0.1908$med 0.1916$Q₃ 0.1929$max 0.1967$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.682right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.625mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.24
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.34
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.55
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-7.49
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.069038%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.080
σᵣ STD / h0.862377%σ²ᵣ = 0.744×10⁻⁴ · CV = 12.49×
σ ANNUALISED80.71%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.862%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-7.49negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-7.41downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.08approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.75mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.99
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-604.77%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.22%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.225%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.709%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.542%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.86%19h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.225%VaR₉₉−1.709%ES₉₅−1.542%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 19h duration
PEAK19.67$
−3.86% drawdown over 19h
18.91$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.26× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.40× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +4.02% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
43.5 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.177 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.1967
Bollinger MA
$0.1921
Bollinger lower
$0.1875

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.195within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.038lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.866strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-3.135significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.866
H = 0.866STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.195k=2+0.038k=3-0.053k=4-0.313k=5+0.1490+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.13)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.93very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.13)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$684.34k
Open interest (USD)
$6.85M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.10x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-9.283× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-4.642× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.321×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.44% · worst -1.85% · typical |Δ| 0.73%MILD BEARISH -1.66%BEST+1.44%12hWORST-1.85%18hTYPICAL |Δ|0.73%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.66%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 3down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.21% · Σ -1.67%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.20% · Σ +1.60%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.20% · Σ -1.59%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.66%+2.28%-1.66%-0.80% · 09h-0.80% · 09h-0.80%09h0.09% · 10h0.09% · 10h0.09%10h0.33% · 11h0.33% · 11h0.33%11h1.44% · 12h1.44% · 12h1.44%12h★ BEST1.22% · 13h1.22% · 13h1.22%13h-0.75% · 14h-0.75% · 14h-0.75%14h0.38% · 15h0.38% · 15h0.38%15h-1.18% · 16h-1.18% · 16h-1.18%16h1.04% · 17h1.04% · 17h1.04%17h-1.85% · 18h-1.85% · 18h-1.85%18h▼ WORST-0.46% · 19h-0.46% · 19h-0.46%19h0.72% · 20h0.72% · 20h0.72%20h-1.23% · 21h-1.23% · 21h-1.23%21h0.77% · 22h0.77% · 22h0.77%22h0.60% · 23h0.60% · 23h0.60%23h-0.74% · 00h-0.74% · 00h-0.74%00h-0.06% · 01h-0.06% · 01h-0.06%01h-0.90% · 02h-0.90% · 02h-0.90%02h-0.12% · 03h-0.12% · 03h-0.12%03h0.41% · 04h0.41% · 04h0.41%04h0.87% · 05h0.87% · 05h0.87%05h-0.46% · 06h-0.46% · 06h-0.46%06h-0.66% · 07h-0.66% · 07h-0.66%07h-0.31% · 08h-0.31% · 08h-0.31%08hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.60%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 4BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 1.44% · worst -1.85% · typical |Δ| 0.726%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.73%)FINAL-1.73%MAX DD-3.93%RECOVERYONGOING · 19 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.29%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↘ 3EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9827 · peak 1.0229 · range [0.9827, 1.0229]1.02290.9827break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0229UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.93% · moderate0%-3.93%▼ TROUGH -3.93%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -3.93%bar 7-25 · 19 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.80%bar 2-4 · 3 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.93%)RECOVERYongoing · 19 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9827 (-1.73%) · max DD -3.93% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-6.84 · σ=24.26UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -7.25 (-0.02σ vs μ)53.2226.610.00-26.61-53.22μ = -6.8425.1825.1853.2253.2221.6321.6330.7130.71-14.14-14.14-42.02-42.02-18.50-18.50-39.90-39.90-13.16-13.16-20.27-20.27-6.30-6.301.061.06-29.56-29.56-10.42-10.42-21.26-21.26-12.53-12.53-6.51-6.51-19.97-19.97-7.25-7.25v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -7.250 · range [-42.02, 53.22] · μ -6.840 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=84.5942 · σ=21.0432 · range [54.2242, 117.5724] · R²=0.517▼ FALLING -38.98%σ EXTREME 24.88%LAST 54.2242117.5724101.735485.898370.061354.2242μ = 84.5942max 117.5724min 54.2242dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.52μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 54.22% · range [54.22%, 117.57%] · μ 84.59% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-0.223 · σ=0.321MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.248 (+1.47σ vs μ)0.7300.3650.000-0.365-0.730μ = -0.2230.0960.096-0.047-0.047-0.003-0.003-0.188-0.188-0.626-0.626-0.730-0.730-0.568-0.568-0.603-0.603-0.522-0.522-0.154-0.154-0.565-0.565-0.501-0.501-0.221-0.2210.0550.055-0.311-0.3110.1940.1940.0340.0340.1720.1720.2480.248v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.248 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.5861
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7460
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.9483
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4229
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.7058
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4354
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.0350
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9720
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (13 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4602
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0512
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.6640
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5067
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.798 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=7.39e-5 · top T=2.40h (25.3%) · top-3 cover 52.3%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)2.2e-41.7e-41.1e-45.6e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.92e-5 · 2.2% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.92e-5 · 2.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 6.64e-5 · 7.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 6.64e-5 · 7.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.40e-4 · 15.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.40e-4 · 15.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.30e-5 · 8.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.30e-5 · 8.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.09e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.09e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.36e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.36e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.99e-5 · 3.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.99e-5 · 3.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 8.26e-5 · 9.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 8.26e-5 · 9.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.00e-4 · 11.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.00e-4 · 11.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.24e-4 · 25.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.24e-4 · 25.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.72e-5 · 3.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.72e-5 · 3.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.28e-5 · 7.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.28e-5 · 7.1% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=8.00h#3T=2.67hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 25.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 8.867e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (4880 bars · effective 5249975 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.001% per barparametric μ/σ² -2.97× · μ -0.001% · σ 0.22%
μ per barmean
-0.001%
σ per barvol
0.22%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-2.97×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.03%0.00%0.04%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -15.54400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4879 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.007
annualized -15.54
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.02%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.04%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
0.94×0.96×0.99×1.01×1.04×1.06×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -15.16σ ann 510% · Sortino -13.27 · n 4879 · ⚠ capped (n=4879 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-1819%-1333%-847%-360%126%612%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)510.1%Ann. vol σ-1516.2%Sharpe (ann)-1326.9%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.1750.1870.1980.2100.2220.233t-4879t-4066t-3253t-2440t-1626t-813t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 08:12:43 UTC
Snapshot age
2.3s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 08:12:45 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
28ac31cbbd9ed03cd12ea62a567bd7ca1ec0ddab2f96c2963f41ae7dd882e8e2 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.4¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDUruguay67.8¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,505HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.14HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,723.8

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$608
bid $146 · ask $461
Depth within 5bp
$4.60K
bid $1.50K · ask $3.10K
Depth within 10bp
$40.66K
bid $20.81K · ask $19.85K
Depth within 50bp
$118.84K
bid $47.29K · ask $71.55K
Mid price
0.189245
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.203
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.724
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-FET/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.1892872.22bp0.1893102FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.1893324.62bp0.1893505FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.18950013.48bp0.18967020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.1891833.28bp0.1891604FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.1891435.39bp0.1891307FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.18903710.98bp0.18890020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-FET/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$3.56M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-FET/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.098 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$1.59M
real volume
Sell weight
$1.93M
real volume
Net delta
$344.03K
sellers net
Imbalance
-9.78%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
9.8%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-FET/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 6 found · deepest 2.92% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-19 18:00:00Z3.0h0.196010→0.1902902.918%4
#22026-06-20 00:00:00Z4.0h0.192910→0.1894301.804%5
#32026-06-19 16:00:00Z0ms0.196740→0.1937101.540%1

/api/asset/hl-FET/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 4,880 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.25M
Realized vol (annualised)
510.14%
σ per bar = 0.002226
Mean return (annualised)
-7734.73%
μ per bar = -0.000015
Sharpe (rf=0)
-15.16
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
14.70%
peak 0.22 → trough 0.19 over 4694 bars

/api/asset/hl-FET/risk · same metrics, JSON