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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

ETH

ETH-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-eth · fresh · feed 4s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 1.96%
realized vol (ann.)
19.14%
max drawdown
0.30%
sharpe
9.55
ulcer index
0.15%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.13%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.01%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
1239.93
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.26%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.02
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
704.95
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.02
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
1.96%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 30%
  • 24h change +1.96%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-ETH/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.5s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$1726.1
24h Δ · live
1.96%
24h vol · live
$392.4M
ETH · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=1710.5800 · σ=11.1543 · range [1691.2000, 1728.5000] · R²=0.794▲ RISING +2.08%σ LOW 0.65%LAST 1726.40001728.50001719.17501709.85001700.52501691.2000μ = 1710.5800max 1728.5000min 1691.2000dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.79μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $1726.40
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=233,478 · μ=9339.1 · σ=12463.0 · CV=1.33BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=6015,71431,42747,14162,855μ = 933962,854.51250%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 62855 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3.5s
$mark $
$1,726.1
$mid $
$1,726.25
◉prev-day close
$1,692.9
Δ24h Δ %
+1.961%
$24h vol $
$392.37M
◐open interest $
$1.32B
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=1710.5800 · σ=11.1543 · range [1691.2000, 1728.5000] · R²=0.794▲ RISING +2.08%σ LOW 0.65%LAST 1726.40001728.50001719.17501709.85001700.52501691.2000μ = 1710.5800max 1728.5000min 1691.2000dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.79μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $1726.1000 · 24h 1.96% · range $[1691.2000, 1728.5000]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 14 · down 11 (56% up) · range [1678.4000, 1732.8000] · σ=11.1543 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=46%BULLISH +2.02%CLOSE 1726.4000 vs OPEN 1692.3000 (+2.02%)&#9650; CLOSE 1726.40001732.80001719.20001705.60001692.00001678.4000μ close = 1710.5800O1692.300 H1693.800 L1688.400 C1691.200 (-0.07%)O1692.300 H1693.800 L1688.400 C1691.200 (-0.07%)O1691.400 H1695.500 L1678.400 C1694.800 (+0.20%)O1691.400 H1695.500 L1678.400 C1694.800 (+0.20%)O1695.000 H1710.700 L1687.300 C1703.200 (+0.48%)O1695.000 H1710.700 L1687.300 C1703.200 (+0.48%)O1703.100 H1710.200 L1696.400 C1706.600 (+0.21%)O1703.100 H1710.200 L1696.400 C1706.600 (+0.21%)O1706.700 H1711.800 L1698.000 C1707.200 (+0.03%)O1706.700 H1711.800 L1698.000 C1707.200 (+0.03%)O1707.300 H1711.300 L1694.400 C1696.300 (-0.64%)O1707.300 H1711.300 L1694.400 C1696.300 (-0.64%)O1696.500 H1706.100 L1693.700 C1704.800 (+0.49%)O1696.500 H1706.100 L1693.700 C1704.800 (+0.49%)O1704.800 H1705.200 L1698.300 C1702.300 (-0.15%)O1704.800 H1705.200 L1698.300 C1702.300 (-0.15%)O1702.400 H1704.200 L1698.000 C1700.800 (-0.09%)O1702.400 H1704.200 L1698.000 C1700.800 (-0.09%)O1700.900 H1709.700 L1698.900 C1708.700 (+0.46%)O1700.900 H1709.700 L1698.900 C1708.700 (+0.46%)O1708.800 H1708.800 L1701.300 C1701.800 (-0.41%)O1708.800 H1708.800 L1701.300 C1701.800 (-0.41%)O1701.800 H1710.100 L1700.600 C1707.700 (+0.35%)O1701.800 H1710.100 L1700.600 C1707.700 (+0.35%)O1707.700 H1714.900 L1705.100 C1711.200 (+0.20%)O1707.700 H1714.900 L1705.100 C1711.200 (+0.20%)O1711.300 H1718.000 L1708.500 C1709.000 (-0.13%)O1711.300 H1718.000 L1708.500 C1709.000 (-0.13%)O1708.900 H1713.400 L1706.500 C1709.500 (+0.04%)O1708.900 H1713.400 L1706.500 C1709.500 (+0.04%)O1709.500 H1709.600 L1703.700 C1704.700 (-0.28%)O1709.500 H1709.600 L1703.700 C1704.700 (-0.28%)O1704.700 H1708.800 L1704.600 C1707.900 (+0.19%)O1704.700 H1708.800 L1704.600 C1707.900 (+0.19%)O1707.900 H1715.000 L1706.400 C1713.200 (+0.31%)O1707.900 H1715.000 L1706.400 C1713.200 (+0.31%)0.7%O1713.200 H1732.800 L1712.300 C1725.900 (+0.74%)O1713.200 H1732.800 L1712.300 C1725.900 (+0.74%)O1725.900 H1729.500 L1724.000 C1727.400 (+0.09%)O1725.900 H1729.500 L1724.000 C1727.400 (+0.09%)O1727.400 H1729.500 L1723.100 C1725.500 (-0.11%)O1727.400 H1729.500 L1723.100 C1725.500 (-0.11%)O1725.500 H1726.500 L1721.100 C1722.500 (-0.17%)O1725.500 H1726.500 L1721.100 C1722.500 (-0.17%)O1722.500 H1729.800 L1722.500 C1728.500 (+0.35%)O1722.500 H1729.800 L1722.500 C1728.500 (+0.35%)O1728.500 H1729.400 L1725.400 C1727.400 (-0.06%)O1728.500 H1729.400 L1725.400 C1727.400 (-0.06%)O1727.500 H1728.600 L1725.900 C1726.400 (-0.06%)O1727.500 H1728.600 L1725.900 C1726.400 (-0.06%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=233,478 · μ=9339.1 · σ=12463.0 · CV=1.33BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=6015,71431,42747,14162,855μ = 93393,861.491 · 6.1% peak3,861.491 · 6.1% peak14,791.176 · 23.5% peak14,791.176 · 23.5% peak62,854.51262,854.512 · 100.0% peak62,854.512 · 100.0% peak22,398.861 · 35.6% peak22,398.861 · 35.6% peak8,494.043 · 13.5% peak8,494.043 · 13.5% peak8,544.642 · 13.6% peak8,544.642 · 13.6% peak5,181.59 · 8.2% peak5,181.59 · 8.2% peak2,571.84 · 4.1% peak2,571.84 · 4.1% peak1,670.341 · 2.7% peak1,670.341 · 2.7% peak12,543.837 · 20.0% peak12,543.837 · 20.0% peak6,024.224 · 9.6% peak6,024.224 · 9.6% peak2,404.22 · 3.8% peak2,404.22 · 3.8% peak3,351.618 · 5.3% peak3,351.618 · 5.3% peak13,118.646 · 20.9% peak13,118.646 · 20.9% peak9,501.221 · 15.1% peak9,501.221 · 15.1% peak9,396.938 · 15.0% peak9,396.938 · 15.0% peak1,374.631 · 2.2% peak1,374.631 · 2.2% peak3,842.583 · 6.1% peak3,842.583 · 6.1% peak18,848.943 · 30.0% peak18,848.943 · 30.0% peak3,185.791 · 5.1% peak3,185.791 · 5.1% peak3,776.839 · 6.0% peak3,776.839 · 6.0% peak3,385.211 · 5.4% peak3,385.211 · 5.4% peak7,747.555 · 12.3% peak7,747.555 · 12.3% peak3,023.729 · 4.8% peak3,023.729 · 4.8% peak1,583.573 · 2.5% peak1,583.573 · 2.5% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 233478 · peak 62855 · CV 1.33

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0009 · σ=0.0029 · skew=-0.16 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.33 (mesokurtic)54310 1-58.31bpbin -58.31bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -58.31bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak-46.81bp 1-35.32bpbin -35.32bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -35.32bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 1-23.83bpbin -23.83bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -23.83bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 5-12.34bpbin -12.34bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -12.34bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 4-0.84bpbin -0.84bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -0.84bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 110.65bpbin 10.65bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 10.65bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 422.14bpbin 22.14bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin 22.14bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 333.63bpbin 33.63bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 33.63bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 345.13bpbin 45.13bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 45.13bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak56.62bp 168.11bpbin 68.11bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 68.11bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 14 · negative 10
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.12 · kurt=-0.19 · near 24 / mid 0 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.02 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$1,726.1
Mid price
$1,726.25
24h change
+1.96%
Mark–mid spread
0.87 bps
Prev-day close
$1,692.9

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.14)
μ MEAN1710.5800$95% CI: [1706.2075$, 1714.9525$]
σ STD DEV11.1543$σ² = 124.419 · CV = 0.65%
med MEDIAN1707.9000$Q₁ 1703.2000$ · Q₃ 1722.5000$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 37.3000$ · IQR 19.3000$ (1.349σ→15.0472$)
min 1691.2000$Q₁ 1703.2000$med 1707.9000$Q₃ 1722.5000$max 1728.5000$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.306approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.137platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.24
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.78
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.34
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=25.21
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.085833%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.269
σᵣ STD / h0.318612%σ²ᵣ = 0.102×10⁻⁴ · CV = 3.71×
σ ANNUALISED29.82%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.319%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)25.21excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)29.36strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.13approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.07mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside drag · negatively skewedSoR / SR = 1.16
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+751.90%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKMODERATE · 95% VaR 0.39%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.386%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.586%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.523%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN0.64%1h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.386%VaR₉₉−0.586%ES₉₅−0.523%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEshallow drawdown · 1h duration
PEAK170720.00$
−0.64% drawdown over 1h
169630.00$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.35× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.52× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONshallow drawdownrecovery needed: +0.64% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
66.6 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.813 · within band
Bollinger upper
$1734.3760
Bollinger MA
$1713.0750
Bollinger lower
$1691.7740

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.20 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.201within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.068lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.897strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+9.410significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.897
H = 0.897STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.201k=2-0.068k=3-0.095k=4-0.257k=5+0.2010+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=9.41)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.20 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.99very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=9.41)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$392.37M
Open interest (USD)
$1.32B
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.30x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.74% · worst -0.64% · typical |Δ| 0.26%MILD BULLISH +2.06%BEST+0.74%05hWORST-0.64%16hTYPICAL |Δ|0.26%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+2.06%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.10% · Σ +0.83%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.12% · Σ +0.99%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.03% · Σ +0.23%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +2.06%+2.18%0.00%0.21% · 12h0.21% · 12h0.21%12h0.49% · 13h0.49% · 13h0.49%13h0.20% · 14h0.20% · 14h0.20%14h0.04% · 15h0.04% · 15h0.04%15h-0.64% · 16h-0.64% · 16h-0.64%16h▼ WORST0.50% · 17h0.50% · 17h0.50%17h-0.15% · 18h-0.15% · 18h-0.15%18h-0.09% · 19h-0.09% · 19h-0.09%19h0.46% · 20h0.46% · 20h0.46%20h-0.40% · 21h-0.40% · 21h-0.40%21h0.35% · 22h0.35% · 22h0.35%22h0.20% · 23h0.20% · 23h0.20%23h-0.13% · 00h-0.13% · 00h-0.13%00h0.03% · 01h0.03% · 01h0.03%01h-0.28% · 02h-0.28% · 02h-0.28%02h0.19% · 03h0.19% · 03h0.19%03h0.31% · 04h0.31% · 04h0.31%04h0.74% · 05h0.74% · 05h0.74%05h★ BEST0.09% · 06h0.09% · 06h0.09%06h-0.11% · 07h-0.11% · 07h-0.11%07h-0.17% · 08h-0.17% · 08h-0.17%08h0.35% · 09h0.35% · 09h0.35%09h-0.06% · 10h-0.06% · 10h-0.06%10h-0.06% · 11h-0.06% · 11h-0.06%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.99%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 2BREADTH58% up · 42% down
14 up bars · 10 down · best 0.74% · worst -0.64% · typical |Δ| 0.260%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSTRONG PROFIT +2.07% · SHALLOW DDFINAL+2.07%MAX DD-0.64%RECOVERYONGOING · 4 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.19%UNDERWATER14/25 (56%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0207 · peak 1.0219 · range [1.0000, 1.0219]1.02191.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0219UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -0.64% · shallow0%-0.64%▼ TROUGH -0.64%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 5 total#1 -0.64%bar 6-9 · 4 bars · recovered#2 -0.40%bar 11-12 · 2 bars · recovered#3 -0.38%bar 14-17 · 4 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYshallow (max -0.64%)RECOVERYongoing · 20 barsTIME UNDER WATER56% of session · 14/25 bars
final equity 1.0207 (2.07%) · max DD -0.64% · time-under-water 14/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +16 / −3 (84% positive) · μ=22.48 · σ=20.14PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 2.39 (-1.00σ vs μ)55.2627.630.00-27.63-55.26μ = 22.4829.7229.7215.9315.93-5.77-5.774.514.51-10.78-10.7827.8727.8717.6917.6918.6718.6724.8224.82-12.72-12.7223.9323.9322.3322.3336.9736.9749.3549.3540.9240.9249.0049.0055.2655.2636.9636.962.392.39v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 2.394 · range [-12.72, 55.26] · μ 22.476 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=31.9104 · σ=6.6531 · range [17.6653, 42.9143] · R²=0.389▼ FALLING -55.11%σ EXTREME 20.85%LAST 17.665342.914336.602130.289823.977617.6653μ = 31.9104max 42.9143min 17.6653dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.39μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 17.67% · range [17.67%, 42.91%] · μ 31.91% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-0.233 · σ=0.321MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.390 (-0.49σ vs μ)0.6830.3420.000-0.342-0.683μ = -0.233-0.183-0.183-0.345-0.345-0.554-0.554-0.484-0.484-0.545-0.545-0.600-0.600-0.565-0.565-0.683-0.683-0.575-0.575-0.221-0.221-0.049-0.049-0.101-0.1010.2560.2560.1530.1530.0940.0940.2800.2800.1640.164-0.080-0.080-0.390-0.390v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.390 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.0678
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9667
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.8941
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4297
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.4637
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5506
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.5732
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5665
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8273
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0061
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.0281
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3039
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.687 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.02e-5 · top T=2.67h (18.0%) · top-3 cover 49.2%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)2.2e-51.7e-51.1e-55.5e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.27e-6 · 1.8% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.27e-6 · 1.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.77e-7 · 0.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.77e-7 · 0.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.95e-5 · 15.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.95e-5 · 15.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.69e-6 · 3.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.69e-6 · 3.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.84e-5 · 15.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.84e-5 · 15.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 9.84e-6 · 8.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 9.84e-6 · 8.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.74e-6 · 2.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.74e-6 · 2.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.72e-6 · 6.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.72e-6 · 6.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.21e-5 · 18.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.21e-5 · 18.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.87e-5 · 15.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.87e-5 · 15.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.22e-6 · 4.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.22e-6 · 4.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.19e-5 · 9.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.19e-5 · 9.7% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.67h#2T=8.00h#3T=2.40hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.67h (freq 0.375) · concentrates 18.0% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.227e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5256096 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² -8.72× · μ -0.000% · σ 0.05%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.05%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-8.72×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -11.55400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.005
annualized -11.55
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -946% · APY -100% · Sharpe -9.08σ ann 104% · Sortino -8.88 · n 4999
-1135%-883%-631%-379%-127%125%-946.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)104.1%Ann. vol σ-908.4%Sharpe (ann)-888.2%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
161616571699174017821823t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 11:38:44 UTC
Snapshot age
3.5s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 11:38:48 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
92a32f403f3468f312d6282640ac07fa2c25f40795cdba666ad78756efb3fe3e · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.5¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,667HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.8HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,726.1

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$935.89K
bid $737.58K · ask $198.30K
Depth within 5bp
$11.46M
bid $8.07M · ask $3.39M
Depth within 10bp
$25.41M
bid $14.83M · ask $10.58M
Depth within 50bp
$29.92M
bid $16.32M · ask $13.60M
Mid price
1726.250000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
0.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.092
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.772
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ETH/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K1726.300.29bp1726.301FILLED
BUY$10.00K1726.300.29bp1726.301FILLED
BUY$100.00K1726.300.29bp1726.301FILLED
SELL$1.00K1726.200.29bp1726.201FILLED
SELL$10.00K1726.200.29bp1726.201FILLED
SELL$100.00K1726.200.29bp1726.201FILLED

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-ETH/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 2 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$1728.00–$1730.001$7.75K
$1726.00–$1728.003$7.79K
$1724.00–$1726.002$22.63K
$1722.00–$1724.001$3.39K
$1712.00–$1714.001$3.84K
$1710.00–$1712.001$3.35K
$1708.00–$1710.003$35.16K
$1706.00–$1708.004$34.67K
$1704.00–$1706.002$14.58K
$1702.00–$1704.00★2$65.43K
$1700.00–$1702.002$7.69K
$1696.00–$1698.001$8.54K
$1694.00–$1696.001$14.79K
$1690.00–$1692.001$3.86K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ETH/volprofile?priceStep=2

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.538 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
14 / 10
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$176.52K
real volume
Sell weight
$53.10K
real volume
Net delta
$123.42K
buyers net
Imbalance
53.75%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
53.8%
one-sided / toxic
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-ETH/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 1 found · deepest 0.64% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-19 16:00:00Z0ms1707.20→1696.300.638%1

/api/asset/hl-ETH/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
104.14%
σ per bar = 0.000454
Mean return (annualised)
-945.98%
μ per bar = -0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
-9.08
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
3.99%
peak 1751.90 → trough 1682.00 over 1583 bars

/api/asset/hl-ETH/risk · same metrics, JSON