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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

EIGEN

EIGEN-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-eigen · fresh · feed 6s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 24.17%
realized vol (ann.)
304.01%
max drawdown
7.81%
sharpe
-11.42
ulcer index
3.77%
RMS drawdown
pain index
3.17%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.16%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-920.99
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
6.89%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.98
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-504.19
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.98
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
24.17%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 32%
  • 24h change +24.17%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark rich vs HL oracle by 7.4bps — fade/short bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-EIGEN/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5.6s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.271
24h Δ · live
24.17%
24h vol · live
$19.7M
EIGEN · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.2500 · σ=0.0213 · range [0.2157, 0.2792] · R²=0.816▲ RISING +25.41%σ HIGH 8.53%LAST 0.27050.27920.26330.24750.23160.2157μ = 0.2500max 0.2792min 0.2157dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.82μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.27
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=75,820,391 · μ=3032815.6 · σ=3822287.4 · CV=1.26BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1604,465,5038,931,00513,396,50817,862,011μ = 303281617,862,010.8450%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 17862011 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5.6s
$mark $
$0.2707
$mid $
$0.2706
◉prev-day close
$0.218
Δ24h Δ %
+24.174%
$24h vol $
$19.65M
◐open interest $
$12.60M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.2500 · σ=0.0213 · range [0.2157, 0.2792] · R²=0.816▲ RISING +25.41%σ HIGH 8.53%LAST 0.27050.27920.26330.24750.23160.2157μ = 0.2500max 0.2792min 0.2157dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.82μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.2707 · 24h 24.17% · range $[0.2157, 0.2792]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 14 · down 11 (56% up) · range [0.2147, 0.2849] · σ=0.0213 · CV=0.09 · bodyµ=43%BULLISH +25.06%CLOSE 0.2705 vs OPEN 0.2163 (+25.06%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.27050.28490.26730.24980.23230.2147μ close = 0.2500O0.216 H0.219 L0.215 C0.216 (-0.28%)O0.216 H0.219 L0.215 C0.216 (-0.28%)O0.215 H0.221 L0.215 C0.221 (+2.46%)O0.215 H0.221 L0.215 C0.221 (+2.46%)O0.221 H0.227 L0.220 C0.226 (+2.36%)O0.221 H0.227 L0.220 C0.226 (+2.36%)O0.226 H0.233 L0.225 C0.231 (+2.39%)O0.226 H0.233 L0.225 C0.231 (+2.39%)O0.231 H0.232 L0.228 C0.230 (-0.56%)O0.231 H0.232 L0.228 C0.230 (-0.56%)O0.230 H0.233 L0.227 C0.228 (-0.87%)O0.230 H0.233 L0.227 C0.228 (-0.87%)O0.228 H0.236 L0.227 C0.234 (+2.68%)O0.228 H0.236 L0.227 C0.234 (+2.68%)O0.234 H0.234 L0.230 C0.233 (-0.68%)O0.234 H0.234 L0.230 C0.233 (-0.68%)O0.233 H0.233 L0.228 C0.229 (-1.46%)O0.233 H0.233 L0.228 C0.229 (-1.46%)O0.229 H0.236 L0.228 C0.235 (+2.31%)O0.229 H0.236 L0.228 C0.235 (+2.31%)O0.234 H0.237 L0.233 C0.233 (-0.51%)O0.234 H0.237 L0.233 C0.233 (-0.51%)O0.233 H0.250 L0.232 C0.242 (+3.78%)O0.233 H0.250 L0.232 C0.242 (+3.78%)O0.242 H0.258 L0.239 C0.249 (+3.06%)O0.242 H0.258 L0.239 C0.249 (+3.06%)O0.249 H0.270 L0.248 C0.256 (+2.65%)O0.249 H0.270 L0.248 C0.256 (+2.65%)8.8%O0.255 H0.284 L0.252 C0.278 (+8.81%)O0.255 H0.284 L0.252 C0.278 (+8.81%)O0.278 H0.285 L0.266 C0.273 (-2.01%)O0.278 H0.285 L0.266 C0.273 (-2.01%)O0.273 H0.277 L0.267 C0.272 (-0.18%)O0.273 H0.277 L0.267 C0.272 (-0.18%)O0.272 H0.281 L0.268 C0.274 (+0.81%)O0.272 H0.281 L0.268 C0.274 (+0.81%)O0.274 H0.281 L0.271 C0.279 (+1.86%)O0.274 H0.281 L0.271 C0.279 (+1.86%)O0.279 H0.283 L0.272 C0.273 (-2.40%)O0.279 H0.283 L0.272 C0.273 (-2.40%)O0.272 H0.279 L0.264 C0.268 (-1.54%)O0.272 H0.279 L0.264 C0.268 (-1.54%)O0.268 H0.275 L0.267 C0.271 (+0.89%)O0.268 H0.275 L0.267 C0.271 (+0.89%)O0.271 H0.271 L0.250 C0.262 (-3.25%)O0.271 H0.271 L0.250 C0.262 (-3.25%)O0.262 H0.273 L0.261 C0.270 (+3.09%)O0.262 H0.273 L0.261 C0.270 (+3.09%)O0.271 H0.275 L0.266 C0.271 (+0.00%)O0.271 H0.275 L0.266 C0.271 (+0.00%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=75,820,391 · μ=3032815.6 · σ=3822287.4 · CV=1.26BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1604,465,5038,931,00513,396,50817,862,011μ = 3032816310,238.28 · 1.7% peak310,238.28 · 1.7% peak324,472.39 · 1.8% peak324,472.39 · 1.8% peak1,051,615.41 · 5.9% peak1,051,615.41 · 5.9% peak2,425,984.05 · 13.6% peak2,425,984.05 · 13.6% peak684,374.27 · 3.8% peak684,374.27 · 3.8% peak2,239,323.8 · 12.5% peak2,239,323.8 · 12.5% peak1,137,319.71 · 6.4% peak1,137,319.71 · 6.4% peak552,262.22 · 3.1% peak552,262.22 · 3.1% peak564,367.32 · 3.2% peak564,367.32 · 3.2% peak607,202.87 · 3.4% peak607,202.87 · 3.4% peak571,271.94 · 3.2% peak571,271.94 · 3.2% peak5,204,638.33 · 29.1% peak5,204,638.33 · 29.1% peak3,299,356.14 · 18.5% peak3,299,356.14 · 18.5% peak8,856,497.65 · 49.6% peak8,856,497.65 · 49.6% peak7,793,469.53 · 43.6% peak7,793,469.53 · 43.6% peak17,862,010.8417,862,010.84 · 100.0% peak17,862,010.84 · 100.0% peak3,733,270.55 · 20.9% peak3,733,270.55 · 20.9% peak3,500,224.66 · 19.6% peak3,500,224.66 · 19.6% peak2,126,510.85 · 11.9% peak2,126,510.85 · 11.9% peak2,378,249.64 · 13.3% peak2,378,249.64 · 13.3% peak1,714,895.63 · 9.6% peak1,714,895.63 · 9.6% peak611,850.97 · 3.4% peak611,850.97 · 3.4% peak4,665,940.36 · 26.1% peak4,665,940.36 · 26.1% peak2,559,505.61 · 14.3% peak2,559,505.61 · 14.3% peak1,045,537.82 · 5.9% peak1,045,537.82 · 5.9% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 75820391 · peak 17862011 · CV 1.26

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0091 · σ=0.0247 · skew=0.61 (right-skewed) · kurt=0.49 (mesokurtic)54310 2-281.97bpbin -281.97bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -281.97bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 3-184.68bpbin -184.68bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -184.68bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 4-87.40bpbin -87.40bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -87.40bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 29.88bpbin 9.88bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 9.88bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 2107.17bpbin 107.17bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 107.17bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 5204.45bpbin 204.45bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 204.45bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 4301.73bpbin 301.73bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin 301.73bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 1399.02bpbin 399.02bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 399.02bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak496.30bp593.58bp690.87bp 1788.15bpbin 788.15bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 788.15bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 14 · negative 10
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.77 · kurt=1.21 · near 20 / mid 4 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.99 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.2707
Mid price
$0.2706
24h change
+24.17%
Mark–mid spread
3.69 bps
Prev-day close
$0.218

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.74)
μ MEAN0.2500$95% CI: [0.2417$, 0.2584$]
σ STD DEV0.0213$σ² = 4.550×10⁻⁴ · CV = 8.53%
med MEDIAN0.2490$Q₁ 0.2311$ · Q₃ 0.2706$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0635$ · IQR 0.0395$ (1.349σ→0.0288$)
min 0.2157$Q₁ 0.2311$med 0.2490$Q₃ 0.2706$max 0.2792$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.022approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.735platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.05
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.73
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.98
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=34.96
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.943265%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.374
σᵣ STD / h2.525220%σ²ᵣ = 6.377×10⁻⁴ · CV = 2.68×
σ ANNUALISED236.35%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 2.525%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)34.96excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)53.92strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.83right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.81leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.54
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+8263.00%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 2.31%
VaR₉₅ (h)2.311%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)3.096%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)2.849%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN6.23%4h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−2.311%VaR₉₉−3.096%ES₉₅−2.849%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 4h duration
PEAK27.92$
−6.23% drawdown over 4h
26.18$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.23× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.34× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +6.65% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
68.0 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.688 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.2940
Bollinger MA
$0.2564
Bollinger lower
$0.2187

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.060within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.097lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.876strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+10.088significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.876
H = 0.876STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.060k=2+0.097k=3+0.160k=4-0.150k=5-0.0280+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=10.09)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.81very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=10.09)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$19.65M
Open interest (USD)
$12.60M
Vol / OI (turnover)
1.56x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 8.37% · worst -3.31% · typical |Δ| 2.07%MILD BULLISH +22.64%BEST+8.37%01hWORST-3.31%09hTYPICAL |Δ|2.07%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+22.64%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 2up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.92% · Σ +7.39%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.90% · Σ +7.18%US · 16-24 UTCμ +1.01% · Σ +8.07%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +22.64%+25.80%0.00%2.34% · 12h2.34% · 12h2.34%12h2.28% · 13h2.28% · 13h2.28%13h2.28% · 14h2.28% · 14h2.28%14h-0.61% · 15h-0.61% · 15h-0.61%15h-0.83% · 16h-0.83% · 16h-0.83%16h2.64% · 17h2.64% · 17h2.64%17h-0.51% · 18h-0.51% · 18h-0.51%18h-1.47% · 19h-1.47% · 19h-1.47%19h2.29% · 20h2.29% · 20h2.29%20h-0.64% · 21h-0.64% · 21h-0.64%21h3.58% · 22h3.58% · 22h3.58%22h3.02% · 23h3.02% · 23h3.02%23h2.58% · 00h2.58% · 00h2.58%00h8.37% · 01h8.37% · 01h8.37%01h★ BEST-1.85% · 02h-1.85% · 02h-1.85%02h-0.22% · 03h-0.22% · 03h-0.22%03h0.73% · 04h0.73% · 04h0.73%04h1.84% · 05h1.84% · 05h1.84%05h-2.39% · 06h-2.39% · 06h-2.39%06h-1.66% · 07h-1.66% · 07h-1.66%07h0.93% · 08h0.93% · 08h0.93%08h-3.31% · 09h-3.31% · 09h-3.31%09h▼ WORST3.12% · 10h3.12% · 10h3.12%10h0.15% · 11h0.15% · 11h0.15%11hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+8.07%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 2BREADTH58% up · 42% down
14 up bars · 10 down · best 8.37% · worst -3.31% · typical |Δ| 2.068%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +24.38%FINAL+24.38%MAX DD-6.33%RECOVERYONGOING · 6 barsMAX RUN-UP+28.58%UNDERWATER14/25 (56%)STREAK↗ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.2438 · peak 1.2858 · range [1.0000, 1.2858]1.28581.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.2858UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -6.33% · significant0%-6.33%▼ TROUGH -6.33%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 5 total#1 -6.33%bar 20-25 · 6 bars · ONGOING#2 -2.07%bar 16-18 · 3 bars · recovered#3 -1.98%bar 8-9 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -6.33%)RECOVERYongoing · 6 barsTIME UNDER WATER56% of session · 14/25 bars
final equity 1.2438 (24.38%) · max DD -6.33% · time-under-water 14/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +14 / −5 (74% positive) · μ=31.26 · σ=39.09PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -20.73 (-1.33σ vs μ)102.2251.110.00-51.11-102.22μ = 31.2678.4878.4848.7548.7513.3313.3313.4013.4013.0713.0743.6343.6345.0445.0469.8269.82102.22102.2265.2665.2668.4368.4355.3655.3650.6150.6125.8925.89-33.37-33.37-7.41-7.41-28.87-28.87-8.92-8.92-20.73-20.73v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -20.728 · range [-33.37, 102.22] · μ 31.263 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=227.9127 · σ=75.6026 · range [150.6884, 365.3002] · R²=0.135▲ RISING +47.97%σ EXTREME 33.17%LAST 222.9785365.3002311.6473257.9943204.3413150.6884μ = 227.9127max 365.3002min 150.6884dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.14μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 222.98% · range [150.69%, 365.30%] · μ 227.91% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.223 · σ=0.185MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.397 (-0.94σ vs μ)0.5470.2730.000-0.273-0.547μ = -0.2230.1100.110-0.216-0.216-0.256-0.256-0.370-0.370-0.547-0.547-0.378-0.378-0.024-0.024-0.175-0.175-0.027-0.027-0.432-0.432-0.206-0.206-0.142-0.142-0.151-0.151-0.263-0.2630.0580.058-0.075-0.075-0.227-0.227-0.514-0.514-0.397-0.397v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.397 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
6.0151
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0494
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
1.8517
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8700
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.3467
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6060
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.1433
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8861
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (13 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8269
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0061
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.1512
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8798
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.046 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=6.12e-4 · top T=12.00h (24.5%) · top-3 cover 58.9%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.8e-31.3e-39.0e-44.5e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 4.87e-4 · 6.6% energyperiod 24.0 · power 4.87e-4 · 6.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.80e-3 · 24.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.80e-3 · 24.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.29e-5 · 0.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.29e-5 · 0.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.86e-4 · 5.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.86e-4 · 5.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.26e-5 · 1.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.26e-5 · 1.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 6.59e-4 · 9.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 6.59e-4 · 9.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.41e-4 · 6.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.41e-4 · 6.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.02e-3 · 13.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.02e-3 · 13.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.90e-4 · 4.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.90e-4 · 4.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.51e-3 · 20.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.51e-3 · 20.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.34e-4 · 8.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.34e-4 · 8.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.44e-5 · 0.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.44e-5 · 0.2% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=12.00h#2T=2.40h#3T=3.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 12.00h (freq 0.083) · concentrates 24.5% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 7.340e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5256096 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 6.25× · g(f★) 0.012%/barparametric μ/σ² 2.37× · μ 0.006% · σ 0.48%
μ per barmean
0.006%
σ per barvol
0.48%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
6.25×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
2.37×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
3.13×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
1.56×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.01%0.01%0.01%0.0×1.4×2.8×4.1×5.5×6.9×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.59× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.000% · annualized Sharpe 25.34400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.59× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.011
annualized 25.34
μ per barafter L
0.003%
σ per barafter L
0.28%
VaR 95%5%
0.09%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.17%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.3%
0.92×0.98×1.05×1.12×1.19×1.25×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 26.23σ ann 1000% · Sortino 71.21 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%1709%3418%5127%6837%8546%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)1000.0%Ann. vol σ2622.8%Sharpe (ann)7121.4%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.007% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.1930.2230.2540.2840.3140.345t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 11:39:14 UTC
Snapshot age
5.6s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 11:39:20 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
331b046b7cbab96440914708993bba2eb3195da5710af23bc27e527dc4fb9984 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.5¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,671HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.82HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,726.2

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$6.13K
bid $2.53K · ask $3.60K
Depth within 50bp
$64.55K
bid $32.88K · ask $31.67K
Mid price
0.270550
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
11.1bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.312
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.059
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-EIGEN/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.2707005.54bp0.2707001FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.27090112.98bp0.2711005FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.27163139.94bp0.27300020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.2704005.54bp0.2704001FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.27018413.52bp0.2700005FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.26911453.07bp0.26820020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-EIGEN/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$75.82M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-EIGEN/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.074 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
14 / 10
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$40.54M
real volume
Sell weight
$34.97M
real volume
Net delta
$5.58M
buyers net
Imbalance
7.39%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
7.4%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-EIGEN/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 6.23% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-20 06:00:00Z3.0h0.279200→0.2618006.232%4
#22026-06-20 02:00:00Z2.0h0.277800→0.2721002.052%3
#32026-06-19 18:00:00Z1.0h0.233900→0.2293001.967%2

/api/asset/hl-EIGEN/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
1108.60%
σ per bar = 0.004836
Mean return (annualised)
29076.11%
μ per bar = 0.000055
Sharpe (rf=0)
26.23
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
9.87%
peak 0.28 → trough 0.25 over 1229 bars

/api/asset/hl-EIGEN/risk · same metrics, JSON