Hyperliquid · cross-venue tool — comparing every venue, not just Hyperliquid. Hyperliquid ↗

HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

BTC

BTC-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-btc · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -1.35%
realized vol (ann.)
58.58%
max drawdown
2.05%
sharpe
-89.03
ulcer index
1.60%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.57%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-3253.55
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.99%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.75
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-2616.05
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.75
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1919
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-1.35%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
4.34%
signalSHORTconfidence 39%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -1.35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-BTC/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH415ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$63901.0
24h Δ · live
-1.35%
24h vol · live
$3138.1M
BTC · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=64623.6000 · σ=628.8654 · range [63852.0000, 66050.0000] · R²=0.531▼ FALLING -1.39%σ LOW 0.97%LAST 63895.000066050.000065500.500064951.000064401.500063852.0000μ = 64623.6000max 66050.0000min 63852.0000dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.53μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $63895.00
Funding direction · live
Long fee 45.4%Short fee 54.6%SHORT FEE54.6%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.994 / 1.00 bits (99%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
45.4%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
54.6%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.000495% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=50,002 · μ=2000.1 · σ=1743.8 · CV=0.87BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=901,9123,8255,7377,649μ = 20007,649.40650%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 7649 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
415ms
$mark $
$63,901
$mid $
$63,899.5
◉prev-day close
$64,774
Δ24h Δ %
-1.348%
$24h vol $
$3.14B
◐open interest $
$1.92B
%funding (1h)
0.000495%
%funding (yr)
+4.34%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=64623.6000 · σ=628.8654 · range [63852.0000, 66050.0000] · R²=0.531▼ FALLING -1.39%σ LOW 0.97%LAST 63895.000066050.000065500.500064951.000064401.500063852.0000μ = 64623.6000max 66050.0000min 63852.0000dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.53μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $63901.0000 · 24h -1.35% · range $[63852.0000, 66050.0000]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 14 · down 11 (56% up) · range [63655.0000, 66429.0000] · σ=628.8654 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=46%BEARISH -1.37%CLOSE 63895.0000 vs OPEN 64781.0000 (-1.37%)&#9660; CLOSE 63895.000066429.000065735.500065042.000064348.500063655.0000μ close = 64623.6000O64781.000 H64849.000 L64518.000 C64796.000 (+0.02%)O64781.000 H64849.000 L64518.000 C64796.000 (+0.02%)O64797.000 H65098.000 L64572.000 C65033.000 (+0.36%)O64797.000 H65098.000 L64572.000 C65033.000 (+0.36%)O65033.000 H65354.000 L64826.000 C65271.000 (+0.37%)O65033.000 H65354.000 L64826.000 C65271.000 (+0.37%)O65271.000 H65439.000 L64754.000 C65085.000 (-0.28%)O65271.000 H65439.000 L64754.000 C65085.000 (-0.28%)O65085.000 H65848.000 L64951.000 C65731.000 (+0.99%)O65085.000 H65848.000 L64951.000 C65731.000 (+0.99%)O65730.000 H66429.000 L65702.000 C65833.000 (+0.16%)O65730.000 H66429.000 L65702.000 C65833.000 (+0.16%)O65834.000 H66159.000 L65756.000 C66050.000 (+0.33%)O65834.000 H66159.000 L65756.000 C66050.000 (+0.33%)O66051.000 H66066.000 L64668.000 C65493.000 (-0.84%)O66051.000 H66066.000 L64668.000 C65493.000 (-0.84%)-1.8%O65492.000 H65629.000 L64000.000 C64287.000 (-1.84%)O65492.000 H65629.000 L64000.000 C64287.000 (-1.84%)O64286.000 H64456.000 L64159.000 C64386.000 (+0.16%)O64286.000 H64456.000 L64159.000 C64386.000 (+0.16%)O64387.000 H64418.000 L64106.000 C64227.000 (-0.25%)O64387.000 H64418.000 L64106.000 C64227.000 (-0.25%)O64228.000 H64400.000 L63878.000 C64264.000 (+0.06%)O64228.000 H64400.000 L63878.000 C64264.000 (+0.06%)O64265.000 H64493.000 L64206.000 C64470.000 (+0.32%)O64265.000 H64493.000 L64206.000 C64470.000 (+0.32%)O64470.000 H64666.000 L64421.000 C64431.000 (-0.06%)O64470.000 H64666.000 L64421.000 C64431.000 (-0.06%)O64431.000 H64771.000 L64429.000 C64513.000 (+0.13%)O64431.000 H64771.000 L64429.000 C64513.000 (+0.13%)O64514.000 H64714.000 L64452.000 C64651.000 (+0.21%)O64514.000 H64714.000 L64452.000 C64651.000 (+0.21%)O64652.000 H64652.000 L64222.000 C64247.000 (-0.63%)O64652.000 H64652.000 L64222.000 C64247.000 (-0.63%)O64247.000 H64296.000 L63779.000 C63852.000 (-0.61%)O64247.000 H64296.000 L63779.000 C63852.000 (-0.61%)O63852.000 H63993.000 L63655.000 C63961.000 (+0.17%)O63852.000 H63993.000 L63655.000 C63961.000 (+0.17%)O63961.000 H64095.000 L63812.000 C64053.000 (+0.14%)O63961.000 H64095.000 L63812.000 C64053.000 (+0.14%)O64052.000 H64478.000 L63979.000 C64476.000 (+0.66%)O64052.000 H64478.000 L63979.000 C64476.000 (+0.66%)O64476.000 H64617.000 L64327.000 C64362.000 (-0.18%)O64476.000 H64617.000 L64327.000 C64362.000 (-0.18%)O64363.000 H64451.000 L64148.000 C64162.000 (-0.31%)O64363.000 H64451.000 L64148.000 C64162.000 (-0.31%)O64163.000 H64190.000 L63879.000 C64061.000 (-0.16%)O64163.000 H64190.000 L63879.000 C64061.000 (-0.16%)O64061.000 H64167.000 L63852.000 C63895.000 (-0.26%)O64061.000 H64167.000 L63852.000 C63895.000 (-0.26%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=50,002 · μ=2000.1 · σ=1743.8 · CV=0.87BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=901,9123,8255,7377,649μ = 20001,786.686 · 23.4% peak1,786.686 · 23.4% peak996.149 · 13.0% peak996.149 · 13.0% peak1,608.298 · 21.0% peak1,608.298 · 21.0% peak1,252.21 · 16.4% peak1,252.21 · 16.4% peak2,129.695 · 27.8% peak2,129.695 · 27.8% peak3,894.938 · 50.9% peak3,894.938 · 50.9% peak1,525.097 · 19.9% peak1,525.097 · 19.9% peak7,649.4067,649.406 · 100.0% peak7,649.406 · 100.0% peak6,745.721 · 88.2% peak6,745.721 · 88.2% peak1,615.468 · 21.1% peak1,615.468 · 21.1% peak1,630.465 · 21.3% peak1,630.465 · 21.3% peak2,402.723 · 31.4% peak2,402.723 · 31.4% peak830.489 · 10.9% peak830.489 · 10.9% peak1,065.731 · 13.9% peak1,065.731 · 13.9% peak913.464 · 11.9% peak913.464 · 11.9% peak1,049.261 · 13.7% peak1,049.261 · 13.7% peak755.867 · 9.9% peak755.867 · 9.9% peak3,238.154 · 42.3% peak3,238.154 · 42.3% peak1,982.223 · 25.9% peak1,982.223 · 25.9% peak535.022 · 7.0% peak535.022 · 7.0% peak1,288.589 · 16.8% peak1,288.589 · 16.8% peak1,150.701 · 15.0% peak1,150.701 · 15.0% peak873.599 · 11.4% peak873.599 · 11.4% peak1,651.503 · 21.6% peak1,651.503 · 21.6% peak1,430.692 · 18.7% peak1,430.692 · 18.7% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 50002 · peak 7649 · CV 0.87

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0004 · σ=0.0052 · skew=-1.23 (left-skewed) · kurt=2.44 (leptokurtic (fat tails))75420 1-174.00bpbin -174.00bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -174.00bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak-150.28bp-126.56bp-102.84bp 1-79.12bpbin -79.12bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -79.12bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 2-55.41bpbin -55.41bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin -55.41bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak 4-31.69bpbin -31.69bp · n=4 · 57.1% peakbin -31.69bp · n=4 · 57.1% peak 3-7.97bpbin -7.97bp · n=3 · 42.9% peakbin -7.97bp · n=3 · 42.9% peak 715.75bpbin 15.75bp · n=7 · 100.0% peakbin 15.75bp · n=7 · 100.0% peak 439.47bpbin 39.47bp · n=4 · 57.1% peakbin 39.47bp · n=4 · 57.1% peak 163.19bpbin 63.19bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 63.19bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 186.91bpbin 86.91bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 86.91bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 13 · negative 11
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-1.22 · kurt=2.75 · near 20 / mid 3 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.97 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$63,901
Mid price
$63,899.5
24h change
-1.35%
Mark–mid spread
0.23 bps
Prev-day close
$64,774

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.85)
μ MEAN64623.6000$95% CI: [64377.0848$, 64870.1152$]
σ STD DEV628.8654$σ² = 3.95e+5 · CV = 0.97%
med MEDIAN64431.0000$Q₁ 64227.0000$ · Q₃ 65033.0000$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 2198.0000$ · IQR 806.0000$ (1.349σ→848.3394$)
min 63852.0000$Q₁ 64227.0000$med 64431.0000$Q₃ 65033.0000$max 66050.0000$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.850right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.501mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.31
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.05
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.50
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-9.71
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.058345%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.104
σᵣ STD / h0.562543%σ²ᵣ = 0.316×10⁻⁴ · CV = 9.64×
σ ANNUALISED52.65%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.563%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-9.71negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-7.86downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-1.30left-skewed · heavy negative tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂3.72leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.81
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-511.10%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.81%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.814%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.626%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.353%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.33%11h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.814%VaR₉₉−1.626%ES₉₅−1.353%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 11h duration
PEAK6605000.00$
−3.33% drawdown over 11h
6385200.00$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmoderate fat tail|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.66× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONextreme-tail dominated · severe outliersratio = 2.00× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.44% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
41.2 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.258 · within band
Bollinger upper
$65701.4804
Bollinger MA
$64483.7000
Bollinger lower
$63265.9196

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: TRENDING · variance ratio > 1
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.155within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.061lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.982strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-5.106significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.982
H = 0.982STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.155k=2-0.061k=3-0.167k=4-0.403k=5+0.0360+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.11)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONTRENDING · variance ratio > 1from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.11)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$3.14B
Open interest (USD)
$1.92B
Vol / OI (turnover)
1.63x
1h funding
0.000495%
Funding (annualised)
+4.34%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.99% · worst -1.86% · typical |Δ| 0.40%MILD BEARISH -1.40%BEST+0.99%15hWORST-1.86%19hTYPICAL |Δ|0.40%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.40%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 4down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.01%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.07% · Σ +0.53%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.24% · Σ -1.94%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.40%+1.92%-1.47%0.37% · 12h0.37% · 12h0.37%12h0.37% · 13h0.37% · 13h0.37%13h-0.29% · 14h-0.29% · 14h-0.29%14h0.99% · 15h0.99% · 15h0.99%15h★ BEST0.16% · 16h0.16% · 16h0.16%16h0.33% · 17h0.33% · 17h0.33%17h-0.85% · 18h-0.85% · 18h-0.85%18h-1.86% · 19h-1.86% · 19h-1.86%19h▼ WORST0.15% · 20h0.15% · 20h0.15%20h-0.25% · 21h-0.25% · 21h-0.25%21h0.06% · 22h0.06% · 22h0.06%22h0.32% · 23h0.32% · 23h0.32%23h-0.06% · 00h-0.06% · 00h-0.06%00h0.13% · 01h0.13% · 01h0.13%01h0.21% · 02h0.21% · 02h0.21%02h-0.63% · 03h-0.63% · 03h-0.63%03h-0.62% · 04h-0.62% · 04h-0.62%04h0.17% · 05h0.17% · 05h0.17%05h0.14% · 06h0.14% · 06h0.14%06h0.66% · 07h0.66% · 07h0.66%07h-0.18% · 08h-0.18% · 08h-0.18%08h-0.31% · 09h-0.31% · 09h-0.31%09h-0.16% · 10h-0.16% · 10h-0.16%10h-0.26% · 11h-0.26% · 11h-0.26%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.53%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 4BREADTH54% up · 46% down
13 up bars · 11 down · best 0.99% · worst -1.86% · typical |Δ| 0.396%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.43%)FINAL-1.43%MAX DD-3.35%RECOVERYONGOING · 18 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.93%UNDERWATER19/25 (76%)STREAK↘ 4EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9857 · peak 1.0193 · range [0.9851, 1.0193]1.01930.9851break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0193UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.35% · moderate0%-3.35%▼ TROUGH -3.35%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -3.35%bar 8-25 · 18 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.29%bar 4-4 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.35%)RECOVERYongoing · 18 barsTIME UNDER WATER76% of session · 19/25 bars
final equity 0.9857 (-1.43%) · max DD -3.35% · time-under-water 19/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-7.57 · σ=30.52UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -4.39 (+0.10σ vs μ)72.7936.400.00-36.40-72.79μ = -7.5772.7972.7917.5717.57-23.75-23.75-16.66-16.66-43.18-43.18-45.64-45.64-45.90-45.90-31.86-31.8628.0928.0931.7031.701.451.45-24.02-24.02-31.65-31.65-22.57-22.57-1.75-1.75-13.95-13.95-4.64-4.6414.5014.50-4.39-4.39v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -4.391 · range [-45.90, 72.79] · μ -7.573 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=51.4797 · σ=23.9289 · range [18.2387, 94.6066] · R²=0.324▼ FALLING -10.72%σ EXTREME 46.48%LAST 34.324194.606675.514656.422637.330718.2387μ = 51.4797max 94.6066min 18.2387dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.32μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 34.32% · range [18.24%, 94.61%] · μ 51.48% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +11 / −8 (58% positive) · μ=-0.012 · σ=0.242CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST 0.183 (+0.81σ vs μ)0.6420.3210.000-0.321-0.642μ = -0.012-0.642-0.642-0.314-0.3140.2640.2640.1530.1530.0050.005-0.097-0.0970.0970.097-0.105-0.105-0.360-0.360-0.151-0.151-0.210-0.2100.2340.2340.0400.0400.1270.1270.1980.1980.2430.243-0.031-0.0310.1400.1400.1830.183v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.183 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
20.5897
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
6.7015
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2428
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.1756
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6838
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.3854
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6999
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6104
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0217
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.7379
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4606
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.225 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.04e-5 · top T=8.00h (31.6%) · top-3 cover 70.9%BROADBAND · 3 CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (3 bins above 2× noise)1.2e-48.6e-55.8e-52.9e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.39e-5 · 3.8% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.39e-5 · 3.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.22e-5 · 8.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.22e-5 · 8.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.15e-4 · 31.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.15e-4 · 31.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.02e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.02e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.95e-5 · 19.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.95e-5 · 19.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.14e-6 · 2.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.14e-6 · 2.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.94e-6 · 1.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.94e-6 · 1.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 9.56e-6 · 2.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 9.56e-6 · 2.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.40e-5 · 20.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.40e-5 · 20.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.29e-5 · 6.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.29e-5 · 6.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.06e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.06e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.10e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.10e-6 · 0.6% energy50% by T=4.8h#1 dominantT=8.00h#2T=2.67h#3T=4.80hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 8.00h (freq 0.125) · concentrates 31.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.650e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.001% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.001% · σ 0.03%
μ per barmean
-0.001%
σ per barvol
0.03%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-93.20×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.01%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -59.81400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.026
annualized -59.81
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -62.69σ ann 67% · Sortino -42.09 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-7523%-6002%-4481%-2961%-1440%81%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)67.3%Ann. vol σ-6269.0%Sharpe (ann)-4208.8%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
613376300364670663376800369670t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-18 11:44:02 UTC
Snapshot age
415ms
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-18 11:44:03 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
143b8e296e949f46a3a5d4c9ecdecf771d12771aabf3d47d2cec3d1964feaf16 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDBrazil88.2¢HL PREDCanada75.9¢HL PREDSwitzerland62.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,901HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.85HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,741.5

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$2.55M
bid $1.06M · ask $1.49M
Depth within 5bp
$12.93M
bid $6.86M · ask $6.06M
Depth within 10bp
$12.93M
bid $6.86M · ask $6.06M
Depth within 50bp
$12.93M
bid $6.86M · ask $6.06M
Mid price
63895.500000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
0.2bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.062
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.230
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-BTC/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K63896.000.08bp63896.001FILLED
BUY$10.00K63896.000.08bp63896.001FILLED
BUY$100.00K63896.000.08bp63896.001FILLED
SELL$1.00K63895.000.08bp63895.001FILLED
SELL$10.00K63894.700.12bp63894.002FILLED
SELL$100.00K63894.070.22bp63894.002FILLED

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+4.952e-6
0.00050% / hr
Annualised APR
4.341%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
84.1d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
84.1d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-4.341%84.1d2.31y
SHORTRECEIVE4.341%84.1d2.31y

/api/asset/hl-BTC/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 64 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$66048.00–$66112.001$1.53K
$65792.00–$65856.001$3.89K
$65728.00–$65792.001$2.13K
$65472.00–$65536.001$7.65K
$65216.00–$65280.001$1.61K
$65024.00–$65088.002$2.25K
$64768.00–$64832.001$1.79K
$64640.00–$64704.001$1.05K
$64512.00–$64576.001$913
$64448.00–$64512.002$2.12K
$64384.00–$64448.002$2.68K
$64320.00–$64384.001$1.15K
$64256.00–$64320.00★2$9.15K
$64192.00–$64256.002$2.39K
$64128.00–$64192.001$874
$64000.00–$64064.002$2.19K
$63936.00–$64000.001$1.98K
$63872.00–$63936.001$1.43K
$63808.00–$63872.001$3.24K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-BTC/volprofile?priceStep=64

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.138 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
13 / 11
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$20.77K
real volume
Sell weight
$27.44K
real volume
Net delta
$6.67K
sellers net
Imbalance
-13.84%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
13.8%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-BTC/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 3 found · deepest 2.76% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-17 18:00:00Z3.0h66050.00→64227.002.760%4
#22026-06-18 03:00:00Z2.0h64651.00→63852.001.236%3
#32026-06-18 10:00:00Z1.0h64476.00→63895.000.901%2

/api/asset/hl-BTC/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
67.27%
σ per bar = 0.000293
Mean return (annualised)
-4216.85%
μ per bar = -0.000008
Sharpe (rf=0)
-62.69
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
4.63%
peak 66951.00 → trough 63853.00 over 4588 bars

/api/asset/hl-BTC/risk · same metrics, JSON