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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

BRETT

BRETT-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-brett · fresh · feed 5s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -5.02%
realized vol (ann.)
55.48%
max drawdown
1.69%
sharpe
10.59
ulcer index
0.80%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.54%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
738.02
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.64%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.02
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
358.96
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.02
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-5.02%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 39%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -5.02%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 6.9bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-BRETT/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5.0s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.006
24h Δ · live
-5.02%
24h vol · live
$0.3M
BRETT · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0059 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0057, 0.0063] · R²=0.261▼ FALLING -4.65%σ NORMAL 2.94%LAST 0.00580.00630.00610.00600.00580.0057μ = 0.0059max 0.0063min 0.0057dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.26μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.01
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=44,239,560 · μ=1769582.4 · σ=2191700.4 · CV=1.24BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=702,359,5354,719,0697,078,6049,438,138μ = 17695829,438,13850%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 9438138 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5.0s
$mark $
$0.0058
$mid $
$0.0058
◉prev-day close
$0.0061
Δ24h Δ %
-5.023%
$24h vol $
$259.39k
◐open interest $
$323.76k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0059 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0057, 0.0063] · R²=0.261▼ FALLING -4.65%σ NORMAL 2.94%LAST 0.00580.00630.00610.00600.00580.0057μ = 0.0059max 0.0063min 0.0057dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.26μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0058 · 24h -5.02% · range $[0.0057, 0.0063]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 15 · down 10 (60% up) · range [0.0057, 0.0063] · σ=0.0002 · CV=0.03 · bodyµ=55%BEARISH -4.51%CLOSE 0.0058 vs OPEN 0.0061 (-4.51%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.00580.00630.00620.00600.00580.0057μ close = 0.0059O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.15%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.15%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+1.11%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+1.11%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+1.93%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+1.93%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.18%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.18%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-4.08%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-4.08%)-5.1%O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-5.06%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-5.06%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+1.39%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+1.39%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.98%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.98%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.57%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.57%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.16%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.16%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.28%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.28%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.89%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.89%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.19%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.19%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.61%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.61%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-1.20%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-1.20%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-1.09%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-1.09%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.02%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.02%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+1.95%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+1.95%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.79%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.79%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.48%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.48%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-1.53%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-1.53%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.48%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.48%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+1.24%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+1.24%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.49%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.49%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.67%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.67%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=44,239,560 · μ=1769582.4 · σ=2191700.4 · CV=1.24BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=702,359,5354,719,0697,078,6049,438,138μ = 1769582409,690 · 4.3% peak409,690 · 4.3% peak952,765 · 10.1% peak952,765 · 10.1% peak853,898 · 9.0% peak853,898 · 9.0% peak1,651,697 · 17.5% peak1,651,697 · 17.5% peak6,475,954 · 68.6% peak6,475,954 · 68.6% peak9,438,1389,438,138 · 100.0% peak9,438,138 · 100.0% peak4,588,380 · 48.6% peak4,588,380 · 48.6% peak3,071,244 · 32.5% peak3,071,244 · 32.5% peak1,059,353 · 11.2% peak1,059,353 · 11.2% peak530,587 · 5.6% peak530,587 · 5.6% peak666,914 · 7.1% peak666,914 · 7.1% peak695,719 · 7.4% peak695,719 · 7.4% peak552,488 · 5.9% peak552,488 · 5.9% peak2,911,892 · 30.9% peak2,911,892 · 30.9% peak1,903,529 · 20.2% peak1,903,529 · 20.2% peak397,662 · 4.2% peak397,662 · 4.2% peak3,034,843 · 32.2% peak3,034,843 · 32.2% peak506,906 · 5.4% peak506,906 · 5.4% peak683,021 · 7.2% peak683,021 · 7.2% peak896,856 · 9.5% peak896,856 · 9.5% peak704,678 · 7.5% peak704,678 · 7.5% peak551,174 · 5.8% peak551,174 · 5.8% peak442,994 · 4.7% peak442,994 · 4.7% peak863,872 · 9.2% peak863,872 · 9.2% peak395,306 · 4.2% peak395,306 · 4.2% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 44239560 · peak 9438138 · CV 1.24

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0023 · σ=0.0156 · skew=-1.67 (left-skewed) · kurt=2.76 (leptokurtic (fat tails))65320 1-491.93bpbin -491.93bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -491.93bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 1-432.96bpbin -432.96bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -432.96bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak-374.00bp-315.03bp-256.07bp-197.10bp 1-138.14bpbin -138.14bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -138.14bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 5-79.17bpbin -79.17bp · n=5 · 83.3% peakbin -79.17bp · n=5 · 83.3% peak 4-20.21bpbin -20.21bp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin -20.21bp · n=4 · 66.7% peak 638.76bpbin 38.76bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin 38.76bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 397.72bpbin 97.72bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin 97.72bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 3156.69bpbin 156.69bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin 156.69bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 12 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-1.48 · kurt=2.35 · near 17 / mid 7 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.94 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0058
Mid price
$0.0058
24h change
-5.02%
Mark–mid spread
3.43 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0061

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=1.35)
μ MEAN0.0059$95% CI: [0.0058$, 0.0059$]
σ STD DEV0.0002$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 2.94%
med MEDIAN0.0058$Q₁ 0.0058$ · Q₃ 0.0059$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0006$ · IQR 0.0001$ (1.349σ→0.0002$)
min 0.0057$Q₁ 0.0058$med 0.0058$Q₃ 0.0059$max 0.0063$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.351right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.568mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.28
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 2.02
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.41
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-10.99
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.198384%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.117
σᵣ STD / h1.688851%σ²ᵣ = 2.852×10⁻⁴ · CV = 8.51×
σ ANNUALISED158.07%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.689%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-10.99negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-8.97downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-1.58left-skewed · heavy negative tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂3.22leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.82
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1737.84%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKEXTREME · 95% VaR 3.81%
VaR₉₅ (h)3.805%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)4.983%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)4.712%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN9.35%14h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−3.805%VaR₉₉−4.983%ES₉₅−4.712%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 14h duration
PEAK0.63$
−9.35% drawdown over 14h
0.57$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.24× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.31× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +10.31% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
42.8 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.664 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0059
Bollinger MA
$0.0058
Bollinger lower
$0.0057

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.185within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.251lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.852strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-2.853significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.852
H = 0.852STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.185k=2-0.251k=3-0.183k=4-0.018k=5+0.0490+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.85)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.89very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.85)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$259.39k
Open interest (USD)
$323.76k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.80x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-6.955× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-3.478× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-1.739×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.86% · worst -5.21% · typical |Δ| 1.16%MILD BEARISH -4.76%BEST+1.86%13hWORST-5.21%16hTYPICAL |Δ|1.16%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-4.76%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.00% · Σ -0.02%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.09% · Σ -0.75%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.50% · Σ -4.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -4.76%+2.92%-6.90%1.06% · 12h1.06% · 12h1.06%12h1.86% · 13h1.86% · 13h1.86%13h★ BEST-0.11% · 14h-0.11% · 14h-0.11%14h-4.21% · 15h-4.21% · 15h-4.21%15h-5.21% · 16h-5.21% · 16h-5.21%16h▼ WORST1.84% · 17h1.84% · 17h1.84%17h-1.04% · 18h-1.04% · 18h-1.04%18h-0.82% · 19h-0.82% · 19h-0.82%19h0.47% · 20h0.47% · 20h0.47%20h-0.26% · 21h-0.26% · 21h-0.26%21h0.85% · 22h0.85% · 22h0.85%22h0.17% · 23h0.17% · 23h0.17%23h0.55% · 00h0.55% · 00h0.55%00h-1.04% · 01h-1.04% · 01h-1.04%01h-0.84% · 02h-0.84% · 02h-0.84%02h-0.18% · 03h-0.18% · 03h-0.18%03h1.86% · 04h1.86% · 04h1.86%04h0.55% · 05h0.55% · 05h0.55%05h0.58% · 06h0.58% · 06h0.58%06h-1.51% · 07h-1.51% · 07h-1.51%07h0.52% · 08h0.52% · 08h0.52%08h1.23% · 09h1.23% · 09h1.23%09h-0.49% · 10h-0.49% · 10h-0.49%10h-0.60% · 11h-0.60% · 11h-0.60%11hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+-0.02%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 3BREADTH50% up · 50% down
12 up bars · 12 down · best 1.86% · worst -5.21% · typical |Δ| 1.160%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-4.97%)FINAL-4.97%MAX DD-9.60%RECOVERYONGOING · 22 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.94%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9503 · peak 1.0294 · range [0.9306, 1.0294]1.02940.9306break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0294UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -9.60% · significant0%-9.60%▼ TROUGH -9.60%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -9.60%bar 4-25 · 22 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -9.60%)RECOVERYongoing · 22 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9503 (-4.97%) · max DD -9.60% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +10 / −9 (53% positive) · μ=-3.02 · σ=27.32MIXED EDGELAST -4.29 (-0.05σ vs μ)56.4628.230.00-28.23-56.46μ = -3.02-23.79-23.79-35.75-35.75-56.46-56.46-51.55-51.55-32.87-32.8714.9314.93-13.10-13.1024.7024.7017.1217.12-11.54-11.54-9.80-9.807.927.9213.2813.2813.6813.686.146.1425.6925.6944.4344.4313.9013.90-4.29-4.29v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -4.285 · range [-56.46, 44.43] · μ -3.019 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=133.5174 · σ=80.0212 · range [57.1584, 293.2440] · R²=0.474▼ FALLING -68.12%σ EXTREME 59.93%LAST 93.4726293.2440234.2226175.2012116.179857.1584μ = 133.5174max 293.2440min 57.1584dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.47μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 93.47% · range [57.16%, 293.24%] · μ 133.52% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +10 / −9 (53% positive) · μ=-0.058 · σ=0.224CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST -0.270 (-0.95σ vs μ)0.4040.2020.000-0.202-0.404μ = -0.0580.1600.1600.0130.013-0.129-0.1290.0240.024-0.404-0.404-0.257-0.2570.1020.102-0.383-0.383-0.367-0.3670.1250.1250.2080.2080.0610.0610.2000.2000.3100.3100.0080.008-0.193-0.193-0.007-0.007-0.301-0.301-0.270-0.270v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.270 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
20.3915
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.7924
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5819
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.8039
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3886
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.4174
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6764
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3771
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0870
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.3451
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7301
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.105 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.74e-4 · top T=4.80h (23.3%) · top-3 cover 53.5%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)7.7e-45.7e-43.8e-41.9e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.94e-4 · 9.0% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.94e-4 · 9.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.64e-4 · 8.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.64e-4 · 8.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.56e-4 · 13.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.56e-4 · 13.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.65e-4 · 5.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.65e-4 · 5.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 7.66e-4 · 23.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 7.66e-4 · 23.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.34e-4 · 16.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.34e-4 · 16.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.45e-4 · 4.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.45e-4 · 4.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.36e-4 · 4.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.36e-4 · 4.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.61e-4 · 7.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.61e-4 · 7.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.59e-5 · 1.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.59e-5 · 1.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.00e-4 · 6.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.00e-4 · 6.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.58e-6 · 0.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.58e-6 · 0.2% energy50% by T=4.8h#1 dominantT=4.80h#2T=4.00h#3T=8.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.80h (freq 0.208) · concentrates 23.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.283e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5256096 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.003% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.003% · σ 0.15%
μ per barmean
-0.003%
σ per barvol
0.15%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-14.17×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.04%-0.00%0.03%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -50.56400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.022
annualized -50.56
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.02%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.02%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
0.94×0.96×0.98×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -47.74σ ann 337% · Sortino -25.41 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-5729%-4502%-3276%-2049%-822%404%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)337.0%Ann. vol σ-4774.2%Sharpe (ann)-2541.2%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0050.0060.0060.0070.0070.007t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 11:40:15 UTC
Snapshot age
5.0s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 11:40:20 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
7e2495ace22407168d279c0679dc866d9eb1ca8531448558b3538aaae4750fb4 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.5¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,675HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.81HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,726.5

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$2.34K
bid $2.11K · ask $226
Depth within 10bp
$6.89K
bid $3.44K · ask $3.44K
Depth within 50bp
$21.55K
bid $11.00K · ask $10.55K
Mid price
0.005825
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
3.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.123
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.001
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-BRETT/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0058284.85bp0.0058293FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.00583517.51bp0.00584611FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.005885103.63bp0.00593820PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0058242.27bp0.0058232FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.00581516.45bp0.00580511FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.00578372.07bp0.00573520PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-BRETT/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$44.24M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-BRETT/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.354 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
12 / 12
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$14.17M
real volume
Sell weight
$29.66M
real volume
Net delta
$15.50M
sellers net
Imbalance
-35.36%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
35.4%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-BRETT/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 9.11% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-19 15:00:00Z6.0h0.006289→0.0057169.111%7
#22026-06-20 01:00:00Z2.0h0.005819→0.0057012.028%3
#32026-06-20 07:00:00Z1.0h0.005874→0.0057861.498%2

/api/asset/hl-BRETT/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
337.00%
σ per bar = 0.001470
Mean return (annualised)
-16089.15%
μ per bar = -0.000031
Sharpe (rf=0)
-47.74
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
17.53%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 1996 bars

/api/asset/hl-BRETT/risk · same metrics, JSON