Hyperliquid · cross-venue tool — comparing every venue, not just Hyperliquid. Hyperliquid ↗

HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

BLUR

BLUR-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-blur · fresh · feed 24s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 1.45%
realized vol (ann.)
53.71%
max drawdown
0.59%
sharpe
-68.66
ulcer index
0.34%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.30%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.04%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-10779.88
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.54%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.85
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-6814.50
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.85
upside/downside
roll spread
0.4 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
614
store
spread
—
24h Δ
1.45%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 36%
  • 24h change +1.45%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 20.9bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-BLUR/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING23.7s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.016
24h Δ · live
1.45%
24h vol · live
$0.3M
BLUR · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0158 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0155, 0.0161] · R²=0.136▲ RISING +1.68%σ LOW 0.81%LAST 0.01580.01610.01600.01580.01570.0155μ = 0.0158max 0.0161min 0.0155dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.14μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.02
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=20,580,778 · μ=823231.1 · σ=435149.8 · CV=0.53STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=120610,9371,221,8741,832,8112,443,748μ = 8232312,443,74850%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 2443748 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
23.7s
$mark $
$0.0158
$mid $
$0.0158
◉prev-day close
$0.0156
Δ24h Δ %
+1.447%
$24h vol $
$314.21k
◐open interest $
$489.46k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0158 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0155, 0.0161] · R²=0.136▲ RISING +1.68%σ LOW 0.81%LAST 0.01580.01610.01600.01580.01570.0155μ = 0.0158max 0.0161min 0.0155dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.14μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0158 · 24h 1.45% · range $[0.0155, 0.0161]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 15 · down 10 (60% up) · range [0.0154, 0.0162] · σ=0.0001 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=41%BULLISH +1.49%CLOSE 0.0158 vs OPEN 0.0155 (+1.49%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.01580.01620.01600.01580.01560.0154μ close = 0.0158O0.016 H0.016 L0.015 C0.016 (-0.19%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.015 C0.016 (-0.19%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.015 C0.016 (+0.03%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.015 C0.016 (+0.03%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+1.55%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+1.55%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.72%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.72%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.32%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.32%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.99%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.99%)2.0%O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+1.96%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+1.96%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-1.59%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-1.59%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.22%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.22%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.18%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.18%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.40%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.40%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.00%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.00%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.32%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.32%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.33%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.33%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.26%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.26%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.08%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.08%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.21%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.21%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.38%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.38%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.01%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.01%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.51%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.51%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.48%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.48%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.70%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.70%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.40%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.40%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.17%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (+0.17%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.75%)O0.016 H0.016 L0.016 C0.016 (-0.75%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=20,580,778 · μ=823231.1 · σ=435149.8 · CV=0.53STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=120610,9371,221,8741,832,8112,443,748μ = 823231720,479 · 29.5% peak720,479 · 29.5% peak765,425 · 31.3% peak765,425 · 31.3% peak1,088,101 · 44.5% peak1,088,101 · 44.5% peak1,130,405 · 46.3% peak1,130,405 · 46.3% peak1,013,134 · 41.5% peak1,013,134 · 41.5% peak600,524 · 24.6% peak600,524 · 24.6% peak846,341 · 34.6% peak846,341 · 34.6% peak829,668 · 34.0% peak829,668 · 34.0% peak710,680 · 29.1% peak710,680 · 29.1% peak979,265 · 40.1% peak979,265 · 40.1% peak997,124 · 40.8% peak997,124 · 40.8% peak640,015 · 26.2% peak640,015 · 26.2% peak1,022,590 · 41.8% peak1,022,590 · 41.8% peak415,175 · 17.0% peak415,175 · 17.0% peak247,601 · 10.1% peak247,601 · 10.1% peak336,210 · 13.8% peak336,210 · 13.8% peak282,512 · 11.6% peak282,512 · 11.6% peak933,012 · 38.2% peak933,012 · 38.2% peak1,066,594 · 43.6% peak1,066,594 · 43.6% peak339,780 · 13.9% peak339,780 · 13.9% peak987,634 · 40.4% peak987,634 · 40.4% peak2,443,7482,443,748 · 100.0% peak2,443,748 · 100.0% peak908,275 · 37.2% peak908,275 · 37.2% peak835,866 · 34.2% peak835,866 · 34.2% peak440,620 · 18.0% peak440,620 · 18.0% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 20580778 · peak 2443748 · CV 0.53

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0003 · σ=0.0078 · skew=0.96 (right-skewed) · kurt=1.28 (leptokurtic (fat tails))65320 1-148.37bpbin -148.37bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -148.37bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak-115.30bp 2-82.24bpbin -82.24bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -82.24bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 5-49.17bpbin -49.17bp · n=5 · 83.3% peakbin -49.17bp · n=5 · 83.3% peak 5-16.11bpbin -16.11bp · n=5 · 83.3% peakbin -16.11bp · n=5 · 83.3% peak 616.96bpbin 16.96bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin 16.96bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 150.02bpbin 50.02bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 50.02bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 283.09bpbin 83.09bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 83.09bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak116.15bp149.22bp 1182.29bpbin 182.29bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 182.29bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 1215.35bpbin 215.35bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 215.35bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.82 · kurt=1.60 · near 17 / mid 7 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.98 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0158
Mid price
$0.0158
24h change
+1.45%
Mark–mid spread
1.90 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0156

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0158$95% CI: [0.0158$, 0.0159$]
σ STD DEV0.0001$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.81%
med MEDIAN0.0159$Q₁ 0.0158$ · Q₃ 0.0159$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0006$ · IQR 0.0001$ (1.349σ→0.0002$)
min 0.0155$Q₁ 0.0158$med 0.0159$Q₃ 0.0159$max 0.0161$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.413approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.934mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.28
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.65
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.87
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=8.03
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.069233%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.086
σᵣ STD / h0.806824%σ²ᵣ = 0.651×10⁻⁴ · CV = 11.65×
σ ANNUALISED75.51%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.807%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)8.03excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)10.54strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.87right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂2.29leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.31
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+606.48%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.75%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.747%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.443%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.202%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.57%13h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.747%VaR₉₉−1.443%ES₉₅−1.202%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 13h duration
PEAK1.61$
−2.57% drawdown over 13h
1.57$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmoderate fat tail|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.61× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONextreme-tail dominated · severe outliersratio = 1.93× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.64% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
53.7 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.228 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0160
Bollinger MA
$0.0159
Bollinger lower
$0.0157

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.22 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.215within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.299lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.903strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+1.905fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.903
H = 0.903STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.215k=2-0.299k=3-0.023k=4+0.324k=5-0.1040+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]MARGINAL @ 10% (|t|=1.91)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.22 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCEMARGINAL @ 10% (|t|=1.91)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$314.21k
Open interest (USD)
$489.46k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.64x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.32% · worst -1.65% · typical |Δ| 0.55%MILD BULLISH +1.66%BEST+2.32%13hWORST-1.65%14hTYPICAL |Δ|0.55%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+1.66%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.09% · Σ -0.69%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.28% · Σ +2.27%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.01% · Σ +0.08%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +1.66%+3.94%0.00%0.25% · 08h0.25% · 08h0.25%08h1.66% · 09h1.66% · 09h1.66%09h-0.76% · 10h-0.76% · 10h-0.76%10h-0.49% · 11h-0.49% · 11h-0.49%11h0.96% · 12h0.96% · 12h0.96%12h2.32% · 13h2.32% · 13h2.32%13h★ BEST-1.65% · 14h-1.65% · 14h-1.65%14h▼ WORST-0.03% · 15h-0.03% · 15h-0.03%15h-0.10% · 16h-0.10% · 16h-0.10%16h0.15% · 17h0.15% · 17h0.15%17h-0.08% · 18h-0.08% · 18h-0.08%18h0.14% · 19h0.14% · 19h0.14%19h0.33% · 20h0.33% · 20h0.33%20h-0.40% · 21h-0.40% · 21h-0.40%21h-0.15% · 22h-0.15% · 22h-0.15%22h0.18% · 23h0.18% · 23h0.18%23h-0.42% · 00h-0.42% · 00h-0.42%00h-0.01% · 01h-0.01% · 01h-0.01%01h-0.59% · 02h-0.59% · 02h-0.59%02h0.51% · 03h0.51% · 03h0.51%03h0.76% · 04h0.76% · 04h0.76%04h-0.42% · 05h-0.42% · 05h-0.42%05h0.17% · 06h0.17% · 06h0.17%06h-0.70% · 07h-0.70% · 07h-0.70%07hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+2.27%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 2.32% · worst -1.65% · typical |Δ| 0.550%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +1.60%FINAL+1.60%MAX DD-2.59%RECOVERYONGOING · 18 barsMAX RUN-UP+3.97%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0160 · peak 1.0397 · range [1.0000, 1.0397]1.03971.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0397UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.59% · moderate0%-2.59%▼ TROUGH -2.59%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -2.59%bar 8-25 · 18 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.24%bar 4-6 · 3 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.59%)RECOVERYongoing · 18 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 1.0160 (1.60%) · max DD -2.59% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +12 / −7 (63% positive) · μ=0.33 · σ=27.49MIXED EDGELAST -6.79 (-0.26σ vs μ)75.0737.530.00-37.53-75.07μ = 0.3350.7550.7520.6620.663.943.9411.6611.6619.6519.657.607.60-35.17-35.1739.7339.733.463.460.380.381.861.86-15.26-15.26-23.69-23.69-75.07-75.07-18.78-18.7812.9912.99-4.44-4.4412.8412.84-6.79-6.79v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -6.785 · range [-75.07, 50.75] · μ 0.332 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=65.1877 · σ=44.6902 · range [15.7040, 144.3569] · R²=0.489▼ FALLING -49.57%σ EXTREME 68.56%LAST 57.2018144.3569112.193780.030547.867215.7040μ = 65.1877max 144.3569min 15.7040dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.49μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 57.20% · range [15.70%, 144.36%] · μ 65.19% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.236 · σ=0.178MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.201 (+0.19σ vs μ)0.5870.2940.000-0.294-0.587μ = -0.236-0.007-0.007-0.317-0.317-0.177-0.177-0.256-0.256-0.210-0.210-0.452-0.452-0.031-0.031-0.003-0.003-0.387-0.387-0.136-0.136-0.175-0.175-0.257-0.257-0.513-0.513-0.433-0.433-0.587-0.5870.0380.038-0.134-0.134-0.236-0.236-0.201-0.201v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.201 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
8.2886
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0159
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
7.4366
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1889
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-3.6517
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0052
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.4555
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6487
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3165
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1532
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.7787
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0753
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.459 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=6.54e-5 · top T=4.00h (19.7%) · top-3 cover 53.9%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.5e-41.2e-47.7e-53.9e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.08e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.08e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.69e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.69e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.19e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.19e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.42e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.42e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.25e-4 · 15.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.25e-4 · 15.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.55e-4 · 19.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.55e-4 · 19.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.44e-4 · 18.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.44e-4 · 18.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.52e-5 · 9.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.52e-5 · 9.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.82e-5 · 2.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.82e-5 · 2.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 8.61e-5 · 11.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 8.61e-5 · 11.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.02e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.02e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.32e-5 · 9.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.32e-5 · 9.3% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=4.00h#2T=3.43h#3T=4.80hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.00h (freq 0.250) · concentrates 19.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 7.852e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (4730 bars · effective 5249975 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.002% per barparametric μ/σ² -3.71× · μ -0.002% · σ 0.25%
μ per barmean
-0.002%
σ per barvol
0.25%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-3.71×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-115000000000.00%-86249999999.98%-57499999999.95%-28749999999.93%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -17.90400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4729 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.008
annualized -17.90
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.02%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.03%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
0.94×0.96×0.98×1.01×1.03×1.06×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -21.65σ ann 584% · Sortino -14.13 · n 4729 · ⚠ capped (n=4729 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-2598%-1938%-1279%-619%41%701%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)584.0%Ann. vol σ-2165.3%Sharpe (ann)-1413.0%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0140.0150.0170.0180.0190.020t-4729t-3941t-3153t-2365t-1576t-788t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 07:56:37 UTC
Snapshot age
23.7s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 07:57:01 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
e13369e2bb51344b818b31b35d4afb44850b4c6ec04c127e8005502679c0cd4d · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.4¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDUruguay67.8¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,678HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.1HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,725.4

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$4.47K
bid $1.43K · ask $3.04K
Depth within 50bp
$70.47K
bid $58.32K · ask $12.15K
Mid price
0.015756
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
12.1bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.611
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.340
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-BLUR/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0157676.60bp0.0157683FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.01579021.12bp0.01581212FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.01585662.96bp0.01598420PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0157438.33bp0.0157412FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.01572222.10bp0.0157007FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.01560794.66bp0.01532720PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-BLUR/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$20.58M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-BLUR/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.036 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$10.29M
real volume
Sell weight
$9.58M
real volume
Net delta
$709.78K
buyers net
Imbalance
3.57%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
3.6%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-BLUR/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 1.76% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-19 14:00:00Z2.0h0.016142→0.0158581.759%3
#22026-06-19 10:00:00Z1.0h0.015818→0.0156221.239%2
#32026-06-20 02:00:00Z0ms0.015887→0.0157271.007%1

/api/asset/hl-BLUR/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 4,730 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.25M
Realized vol (annualised)
583.98%
σ per bar = 0.002549
Mean return (annualised)
-12644.72%
μ per bar = -0.000024
Sharpe (rf=0)
-21.65
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
18.65%
peak 0.02 → trough 0.02 over 3958 bars

/api/asset/hl-BLUR/risk · same metrics, JSON