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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

BABY

BABY-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-baby · fresh · feed 6s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -0.08%
realized vol (ann.)
114.13%
max drawdown
2.59%
sharpe
-126.76
ulcer index
1.74%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.58%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.07%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-8327.52
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.49%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.77
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-5808.98
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.77
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
611
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-0.08%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-72.08%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 40%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 21.1bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-BABY/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH6.0s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.014
24h Δ · live
-0.08%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
BABY · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0140 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0137, 0.0144] · R²=0.015▬ FLATσ NORMAL 1.20%LAST 0.01420.01440.01420.01410.01390.0137μ = 0.0140max 0.0144min 0.0137dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.01
Funding direction · live
Long fee 49.7%Short fee 50.3%SHORT FEE50.3%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.02% (99.98pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 1.000 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
49.7%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
50.3%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.008229% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=8,602,673 · μ=344106.9 · σ=244514.9 · CV=0.71RISING +85% h/hcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=170303,413606,827910,2401,213,653μ = 3441071,213,65350%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 1213653 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
6.0s
$mark $
$0.0142
$mid $
$0.0142
◉prev-day close
$0.0142
Δ24h Δ %
-0.078%
$24h vol $
$118.94k
◐open interest $
$234.74k
%funding (1h)
-0.008229%
%funding (yr)
-72.08%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0140 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0137, 0.0144] · R²=0.015▬ FLATσ NORMAL 1.20%LAST 0.01420.01440.01420.01410.01390.0137μ = 0.0140max 0.0144min 0.0137dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0142 · 24h -0.08% · range $[0.0137, 0.0144]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 8 · down 17 (32% up) · range [0.0137, 0.0145] · σ=0.0002 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=51%BULLISH +0.31%CLOSE 0.0142 vs OPEN 0.0141 (+0.31%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.01420.01450.01430.01410.01390.0137μ close = 0.0140O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (+0.35%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (+0.35%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-0.36%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-0.36%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-0.69%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-0.69%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-0.01%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-0.01%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-0.36%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-0.36%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-0.42%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-0.42%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (+1.66%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (+1.66%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-1.80%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-1.80%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (+0.59%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (+0.59%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (+0.19%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (+0.19%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-0.71%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-0.71%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-0.67%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-0.67%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-0.41%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-0.41%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-0.57%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-0.57%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (+0.29%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (+0.29%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (+2.26%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (+2.26%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-0.62%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-0.62%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-0.36%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-0.36%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-1.34%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-1.34%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-0.48%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-0.48%)2.9%O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (+2.88%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (+2.88%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-0.12%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-0.12%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-0.06%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-0.06%)O0.014 H0.015 L0.014 C0.014 (+1.47%)O0.014 H0.015 L0.014 C0.014 (+1.47%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-1.09%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-1.09%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=8,602,673 · μ=344106.9 · σ=244514.9 · CV=0.71RISING +85% h/hcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=170303,413606,827910,2401,213,653μ = 344107157,976 · 13.0% peak157,976 · 13.0% peak133,575 · 11.0% peak133,575 · 11.0% peak272,354 · 22.4% peak272,354 · 22.4% peak506,581 · 41.7% peak506,581 · 41.7% peak369,807 · 30.5% peak369,807 · 30.5% peak387,405 · 31.9% peak387,405 · 31.9% peak265,523 · 21.9% peak265,523 · 21.9% peak151,053 · 12.4% peak151,053 · 12.4% peak304,399 · 25.1% peak304,399 · 25.1% peak131,977 · 10.9% peak131,977 · 10.9% peak141,133 · 11.6% peak141,133 · 11.6% peak196,185 · 16.2% peak196,185 · 16.2% peak746,086 · 61.5% peak746,086 · 61.5% peak201,250 · 16.6% peak201,250 · 16.6% peak89,631 · 7.4% peak89,631 · 7.4% peak239,411 · 19.7% peak239,411 · 19.7% peak341,099 · 28.1% peak341,099 · 28.1% peak277,640 · 22.9% peak277,640 · 22.9% peak199,046 · 16.4% peak199,046 · 16.4% peak269,930 · 22.2% peak269,930 · 22.2% peak376,858 · 31.1% peak376,858 · 31.1% peak583,333 · 48.1% peak583,333 · 48.1% peak1,213,6531,213,653 · 100.0% peak1,213,653 · 100.0% peak497,201 · 41.0% peak497,201 · 41.0% peak549,567 · 45.3% peak549,567 · 45.3% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 8602673 · peak 1213653 · CV 0.71

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0001 · σ=0.0111 · skew=1.06 (right-skewed) · kurt=0.63 (mesokurtic)97520 2-160.47bpbin -160.47bp · n=2 · 22.2% peakbin -160.47bp · n=2 · 22.2% peak 1-121.76bpbin -121.76bp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin -121.76bp · n=1 · 11.1% peak 2-83.06bpbin -83.06bp · n=2 · 22.2% peakbin -83.06bp · n=2 · 22.2% peak 9-44.35bpbin -44.35bp · n=9 · 100.0% peakbin -44.35bp · n=9 · 100.0% peak 2-5.64bpbin -5.64bp · n=2 · 22.2% peakbin -5.64bp · n=2 · 22.2% peak 333.07bpbin 33.07bp · n=3 · 33.3% peakbin 33.07bp · n=3 · 33.3% peak 171.78bpbin 71.78bp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 71.78bp · n=1 · 11.1% peak 1110.48bpbin 110.48bp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 110.48bp · n=1 · 11.1% peak149.19bp 1187.90bpbin 187.90bp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 187.90bp · n=1 · 11.1% peak226.61bp 2265.32bpbin 265.32bp · n=2 · 22.2% peakbin 265.32bp · n=2 · 22.2% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 9 · negative 15
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=1.00 · kurt=0.66 · near 15 / mid 9 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.98 intercept=-0.00RIGHT-SKEWED · HEAVY POSITIVE TAILMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0142
Mid price
$0.0142
24h change
-0.08%
Mark–mid spread
1.41 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0142

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0140$95% CI: [0.0140$, 0.0141$]
σ STD DEV0.0002$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.20%
med MEDIAN0.0140$Q₁ 0.0139$ · Q₃ 0.0142$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0007$ · IQR 0.0002$ (1.349σ→0.0002$)
min 0.0137$Q₁ 0.0139$med 0.0140$Q₃ 0.0142$max 0.0144$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.140approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.855mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.12
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.99
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.89
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-0.15
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.001764%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.002
σᵣ STD / h1.136907%σ²ᵣ = 1.293×10⁻⁴ · CV = 644.67×
σ ANNUALISED106.41%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.137%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-0.15negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-0.20downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-4.64drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁1.07right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.12leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside drag · negatively skewedSoR / SR = 1.38
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -4.64
EXPECTED EDGE-15.45%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.41%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.414%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.717%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.621%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.33%7h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.414%VaR₉₉−1.717%ES₉₅−1.621%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 7h duration
PEAK1.42$
−3.33% drawdown over 7h
1.37$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.15× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.21× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.45% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
51.3 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.719 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0144
Bollinger MA
$0.0140
Bollinger lower
$0.0136

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.174within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.129lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.767strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+0.601fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.767
H = 0.767STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.174k=2-0.129k=3-0.001k=4-0.385k=5+0.1540+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.60)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.71very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.60)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$118.94k
Open interest (USD)
$234.74k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.51x
1h funding
-0.008229%
Funding (annualised)
-72.08%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-0.136× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-0.068× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-0.034×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.85% · worst -1.80% · typical |Δ| 0.83%MILD BEARISH -0.04%BEST+2.85%03hWORST-1.80%14hTYPICAL |Δ|0.83%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.04%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.11% · Σ +0.86%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.12% · Σ -0.94%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.04%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.04%+1.40%-3.27%-0.38% · 08h-0.38% · 08h-0.38%08h-0.59% · 09h-0.59% · 09h-0.59%09h0.06% · 10h0.06% · 10h0.06%10h-0.30% · 11h-0.30% · 11h-0.30%11h-0.39% · 12h-0.39% · 12h-0.39%12h1.71% · 13h1.71% · 13h1.71%13h-1.80% · 14h-1.80% · 14h-1.80%14h▼ WORST0.74% · 15h0.74% · 15h0.74%15h0.31% · 16h0.31% · 16h0.31%16h-0.89% · 17h-0.89% · 17h-0.89%17h-0.93% · 18h-0.93% · 18h-0.93%18h-0.49% · 19h-0.49% · 19h-0.49%19h-0.33% · 20h-0.33% · 20h-0.33%20h0.39% · 21h0.39% · 21h0.39%21h2.49% · 22h2.49% · 22h2.49%22h-0.53% · 23h-0.53% · 23h-0.53%23h-0.31% · 00h-0.31% · 00h-0.31%00h-1.25% · 01h-1.25% · 01h-1.25%01h-0.37% · 02h-0.37% · 02h-0.37%02h2.85% · 03h2.85% · 03h2.85%03h★ BEST0.18% · 04h0.18% · 04h0.18%04h-0.03% · 05h-0.03% · 05h-0.03%05h1.23% · 06h1.23% · 06h1.23%06h-1.44% · 07h-1.44% · 07h-1.44%07hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+0.86%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 4BREADTH38% up · 63% down
9 up bars · 15 down · best 2.85% · worst -1.80% · typical |Δ| 0.833%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-0.19%)FINAL-0.19%MAX DD-3.36%RECOVERYONGOING · 16 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.27%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9981 · peak 1.0127 · range [0.9674, 1.0127]1.01270.9674break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0127UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.36% · moderate0%-3.36%▼ TROUGH -3.36%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -3.36%bar 8-23 · 16 bars · recovered#2 -1.58%bar 2-6 · 5 bars · recovered#3 -1.44%bar 25-25 · 1 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.36%)RECOVERYongoing · 18 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9981 (-0.19%) · max DD -3.36% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +13 / −6 (68% positive) · μ=-1.64 · σ=23.59PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 25.58 (+1.15σ vs μ)52.7626.380.00-26.38-52.76μ = -1.642.182.18-17.78-17.780.380.383.653.65-3.95-3.95-10.34-10.34-52.05-52.05-37.21-37.21-52.76-52.762.992.997.677.6716.4716.475.765.765.255.2526.0326.036.346.3412.0312.0328.5328.5325.5825.58v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 25.581 · range [-52.76, 28.53] · μ -1.644 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=112.3764 · σ=26.3183 · range [53.5063, 162.1271] · R²=0.321▲ RISING +72.43%σ EXTREME 23.42%LAST 138.1702162.1271134.9719107.816780.661553.5063μ = 112.3764max 162.1271min 53.5063dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.32μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 138.17% · range [53.51%, 162.13%] · μ 112.38% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-0.167 · σ=0.317MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.387 (-0.69σ vs μ)0.7140.3570.000-0.357-0.714μ = -0.167-0.097-0.097-0.539-0.539-0.714-0.714-0.673-0.673-0.655-0.655-0.465-0.465-0.176-0.1760.3580.3580.0510.0510.2810.281-0.008-0.008-0.087-0.087-0.010-0.0100.0760.076-0.027-0.0270.0370.0370.0030.003-0.141-0.141-0.387-0.387v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.387 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
5.8306
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0542
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
6.6898
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2438
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.5164
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1158
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.3350
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7377
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (13 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1812
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3896
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.9793
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3274
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.702 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.24e-4 · top T=2.40h (20.1%) · top-3 cover 49.1%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)3.0e-42.2e-41.5e-47.5e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 4.60e-5 · 3.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 4.60e-5 · 3.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.37e-5 · 1.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.37e-5 · 1.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.04e-4 · 13.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.04e-4 · 13.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.25e-4 · 15.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.25e-4 · 15.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 9.80e-5 · 6.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 9.80e-5 · 6.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.97e-5 · 1.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.97e-5 · 1.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.34e-4 · 9.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.34e-4 · 9.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.05e-4 · 13.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.05e-4 · 13.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.62e-4 · 10.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.62e-4 · 10.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.99e-4 · 20.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.99e-4 · 20.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.97e-5 · 4.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.97e-5 · 4.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.02e-7 · 0.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.02e-7 · 0.0% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=6.00h#3T=3.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 20.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.487e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (4727 bars · effective 5249975 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.002% per barparametric μ/σ² -1.74× · μ -0.002% · σ 0.32%
μ per barmean
-0.002%
σ per barvol
0.32%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-1.74×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.03%0.00%0.04%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.1×2.1×3.2×4.3×5.3×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -11.77400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4726 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.005
annualized -11.77
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.03%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.05%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.2%
0.94×0.96×0.99×1.01×1.04×1.06×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -12.90σ ann 742% · Sortino -9.46 · n 4726 · ⚠ capped (n=4726 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-1548%-1060%-573%-85%402%890%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)741.6%Ann. vol σ-1290.0%Sharpe (ann)-945.6%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0130.0150.0160.0180.0190.021t-4726t-3938t-3151t-2363t-1575t-788t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 07:56:19 UTC
Snapshot age
6.0s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 07:56:25 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
7fdba4e92c15f6094677735319a63f0a971381e043193dd275650aca32caa448 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.4¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDUruguay67.8¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,673HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.1HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,725.2

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$5.99K
bid $1.21K · ask $4.79K
Depth within 50bp
$44.75K
bid $21.14K · ask $23.62K
Mid price
0.014163
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
13.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.108
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.336
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-BABY/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0141737.03bp0.0141742FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.01417910.93bp0.0141845FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.01420529.25bp0.01425720PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0141537.73bp0.0141502FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.01414214.90bp0.0141299FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.01412527.25bp0.01407020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-8.229e-5
-0.00823% / hr
Annualised APR
-72.133%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
5.1d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
5.1d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE72.133%5.1d50.6d
SHORTPAY-72.133%5.1d50.6d

/api/asset/hl-BABY/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$8.60M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-BABY/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.291 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
9 / 15
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$2.99M
real volume
Sell weight
$5.45M
real volume
Net delta
$2.45M
sellers net
Imbalance
-29.07%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
29.1%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-BABY/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 3.33% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-19 14:00:00Z6.0h0.014196→0.0137233.332%7
#22026-06-19 23:00:00Z3.0h0.014125→0.0137832.421%4
#32026-06-19 09:00:00Z3.0h0.014179→0.0139551.580%4

/api/asset/hl-BABY/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 4,727 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.25M
Realized vol (annualised)
741.63%
σ per bar = 0.003237
Mean return (annualised)
-9567.11%
μ per bar = -0.000018
Sharpe (rf=0)
-12.90
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
27.63%
peak 0.02 → trough 0.01 over 4543 bars

/api/asset/hl-BABY/risk · same metrics, JSON