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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

APEX

APEX-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-apex · fresh · feed 5s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -2.53%
realized vol (ann.)
68.56%
max drawdown
1.32%
sharpe
-123.65
ulcer index
0.82%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.73%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.05%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-10277.48
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.26%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.69
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-6720.73
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.69
upside/downside
roll spread
1.6 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
607
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-2.53%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 39%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -2.53%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-APEX/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5.3s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.288
24h Δ · live
-2.53%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
APEX · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.2923 · σ=0.0040 · range [0.2879, 0.3021] · R²=0.573▼ FALLING -2.52%σ NORMAL 1.37%LAST 0.28790.30210.29850.29500.29140.2879μ = 0.2923max 0.3021min 0.2879dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.57μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.29
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=360,752 · μ=14430.1 · σ=6357.0 · CV=0.44STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1208,67417,34726,02134,694μ = 1443034,69450%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 34694 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5.3s
$mark $
$0.2879
$mid $
$0.2879
◉prev-day close
$0.2953
Δ24h Δ %
-2.526%
$24h vol $
$95.23k
◐open interest $
$1.35M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.2923 · σ=0.0040 · range [0.2879, 0.3021] · R²=0.573▼ FALLING -2.52%σ NORMAL 1.37%LAST 0.28790.30210.29850.29500.29140.2879μ = 0.2923max 0.3021min 0.2879dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.57μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.2879 · 24h -2.53% · range $[0.2879, 0.3021]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 15 · down 10 (60% up) · range [0.2870, 0.3028] · σ=0.0040 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=43%BEARISH -4.75%CLOSE 0.2879 vs OPEN 0.3022 (-4.75%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.28790.30280.29880.29490.29090.2870μ close = 0.2923O0.302 H0.303 L0.295 C0.295 (-2.29%)O0.302 H0.303 L0.295 C0.295 (-2.29%)O0.295 H0.299 L0.295 C0.298 (+1.07%)O0.295 H0.299 L0.295 C0.298 (+1.07%)O0.299 H0.300 L0.298 C0.300 (+0.13%)O0.299 H0.300 L0.298 C0.300 (+0.13%)O0.300 H0.301 L0.300 C0.300 (+0.10%)O0.300 H0.301 L0.300 C0.300 (+0.10%)O0.300 H0.302 L0.299 C0.302 (+0.70%)O0.300 H0.302 L0.299 C0.302 (+0.70%)-4.0%O0.302 H0.303 L0.287 C0.290 (-4.02%)O0.302 H0.303 L0.287 C0.290 (-4.02%)O0.289 H0.293 L0.289 C0.290 (+0.49%)O0.289 H0.293 L0.289 C0.290 (+0.49%)O0.290 H0.296 L0.290 C0.295 (+1.55%)O0.290 H0.296 L0.290 C0.295 (+1.55%)O0.295 H0.296 L0.292 C0.293 (-0.54%)O0.295 H0.296 L0.292 C0.293 (-0.54%)O0.293 H0.295 L0.291 C0.292 (-0.57%)O0.293 H0.295 L0.291 C0.292 (-0.57%)O0.292 H0.294 L0.291 C0.292 (+0.06%)O0.292 H0.294 L0.291 C0.292 (+0.06%)O0.292 H0.293 L0.290 C0.292 (-0.16%)O0.292 H0.293 L0.290 C0.292 (-0.16%)O0.292 H0.292 L0.288 C0.290 (-0.68%)O0.292 H0.292 L0.288 C0.290 (-0.68%)O0.290 H0.290 L0.288 C0.290 (+0.04%)O0.290 H0.290 L0.288 C0.290 (+0.04%)O0.290 H0.292 L0.290 C0.291 (+0.13%)O0.290 H0.292 L0.290 C0.291 (+0.13%)O0.291 H0.293 L0.290 C0.292 (+0.56%)O0.291 H0.293 L0.290 C0.292 (+0.56%)O0.292 H0.293 L0.291 C0.292 (+0.05%)O0.292 H0.293 L0.291 C0.292 (+0.05%)O0.292 H0.293 L0.290 C0.290 (-0.86%)O0.292 H0.293 L0.290 C0.290 (-0.86%)O0.290 H0.290 L0.288 C0.290 (-0.12%)O0.290 H0.290 L0.288 C0.290 (-0.12%)O0.290 H0.290 L0.287 C0.288 (-0.55%)O0.290 H0.290 L0.287 C0.288 (-0.55%)O0.288 H0.289 L0.288 C0.288 (+0.07%)O0.288 H0.289 L0.288 C0.288 (+0.07%)O0.288 H0.289 L0.288 C0.288 (+0.14%)O0.288 H0.289 L0.288 C0.288 (+0.14%)O0.288 H0.292 L0.288 C0.291 (+0.77%)O0.288 H0.292 L0.288 C0.291 (+0.77%)O0.290 H0.292 L0.290 C0.291 (+0.04%)O0.290 H0.292 L0.290 C0.291 (+0.04%)O0.291 H0.291 L0.287 C0.288 (-0.91%)O0.291 H0.291 L0.287 C0.288 (-0.91%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=360,752 · μ=14430.1 · σ=6357.0 · CV=0.44STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1208,67417,34726,02134,694μ = 1443034,69434,694 · 100.0% peak34,694 · 100.0% peak9,716 · 28.0% peak9,716 · 28.0% peak17,235 · 49.7% peak17,235 · 49.7% peak5,234 · 15.1% peak5,234 · 15.1% peak10,058 · 29.0% peak10,058 · 29.0% peak25,311 · 73.0% peak25,311 · 73.0% peak15,838 · 45.7% peak15,838 · 45.7% peak12,668 · 36.5% peak12,668 · 36.5% peak20,340 · 58.6% peak20,340 · 58.6% peak10,359 · 29.9% peak10,359 · 29.9% peak8,083 · 23.3% peak8,083 · 23.3% peak12,477 · 36.0% peak12,477 · 36.0% peak7,117 · 20.5% peak7,117 · 20.5% peak11,522 · 33.2% peak11,522 · 33.2% peak16,252 · 46.8% peak16,252 · 46.8% peak12,393 · 35.7% peak12,393 · 35.7% peak13,087 · 37.7% peak13,087 · 37.7% peak18,990 · 54.7% peak18,990 · 54.7% peak14,173 · 40.9% peak14,173 · 40.9% peak14,734 · 42.5% peak14,734 · 42.5% peak17,050 · 49.1% peak17,050 · 49.1% peak18,969 · 54.7% peak18,969 · 54.7% peak16,467 · 47.5% peak16,467 · 47.5% peak5,567 · 16.0% peak5,567 · 16.0% peak12,418 · 35.8% peak12,418 · 35.8% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 360752 · peak 34694 · CV 0.44

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0011 · σ=0.0099 · skew=-2.05 (left-skewed) · kurt=6.25 (leptokurtic (fat tails))75420 1-386.92bpbin -386.92bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -386.92bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak-340.37bp-293.82bp-247.27bp-200.72bp-154.17bp 1-107.62bpbin -107.62bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -107.62bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 5-61.07bpbin -61.07bp · n=5 · 71.4% peakbin -61.07bp · n=5 · 71.4% peak 7-14.52bpbin -14.52bp · n=7 · 100.0% peakbin -14.52bp · n=7 · 100.0% peak 532.03bpbin 32.03bp · n=5 · 71.4% peakbin 32.03bp · n=5 · 71.4% peak 378.58bpbin 78.58bp · n=3 · 42.9% peakbin 78.58bp · n=3 · 42.9% peak 2125.13bpbin 125.13bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin 125.13bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 13 · negative 11
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-2.38 · kurt=7.81 · near 11 / mid 12 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.88 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=-1.94σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.2879
Mid price
$0.2879
24h change
-2.53%
Mark–mid spread
2.26 bps
Prev-day close
$0.2953

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=1.09)
μ MEAN0.2923$95% CI: [0.2907$, 0.2939$]
σ STD DEV0.0040$σ² = 0.159×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.37%
med MEDIAN0.2908$Q₁ 0.2899$ · Q₃ 0.2931$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0142$ · IQR 0.0032$ (1.349σ→0.0054$)
min 0.2879$Q₁ 0.2899$med 0.2908$Q₃ 0.2931$max 0.3021$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.093right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.041mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.39
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.69
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.55
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-9.70
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.106457%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.104
σᵣ STD / h1.026946%σ²ᵣ = 1.055×10⁻⁴ · CV = 9.65×
σ ANNUALISED96.12%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.027%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-9.70negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-7.46downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-2.54left-skewed · heavy negative tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂10.02leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.77
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-932.56%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.90%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.898%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)3.369%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)2.509%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN4.70%20h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.898%VaR₉₉−3.369%ES₉₅−2.509%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 20h duration
PEAK30.21$
−4.70% drawdown over 20h
28.79$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSextreme fat tail · ES ≫ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 2.79× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONextreme-tail dominated · severe outliersratio = 3.75× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +4.93% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
39.8 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.122 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.2942
Bollinger MA
$0.2906
Bollinger lower
$0.2870

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.101within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.363lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.042strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-5.560significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.042
H = 1.042STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.101k=2-0.363k=3+0.037k=4-0.121k=5-0.0600+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.56)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.56)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$95.23k
Open interest (USD)
$1.35M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.07x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.48% · worst -4.10% · typical |Δ| 0.59%MILD BEARISH -2.55%BEST+1.48%14hWORST-4.10%12hTYPICAL |Δ|0.59%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.55%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.19% · Σ -1.51%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.09% · Σ -0.75%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.04% · Σ -0.29%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.55%+2.26%-2.55%1.06% · 08h1.06% · 08h1.06%08h0.41% · 09h0.41% · 09h0.41%09h0.23% · 10h0.23% · 10h0.23%10h0.56% · 11h0.56% · 11h0.56%11h-4.10% · 12h-4.10% · 12h-4.10%12h▼ WORST0.12% · 13h0.12% · 13h0.12%13h1.48% · 14h1.48% · 14h1.48%14h★ BEST-0.51% · 15h-0.51% · 15h-0.51%15h-0.51% · 16h-0.51% · 16h-0.51%16h0.19% · 17h0.19% · 17h0.19%17h-0.09% · 18h-0.09% · 18h-0.09%18h-0.73% · 19h-0.73% · 19h-0.73%19h0.04% · 20h0.04% · 20h0.04%20h0.29% · 21h0.29% · 21h0.29%21h0.56% · 22h0.56% · 22h0.56%22h-0.04% · 23h-0.04% · 23h-0.04%23h-0.80% · 00h-0.80% · 00h-0.80%00h-0.12% · 01h-0.12% · 01h-0.12%01h-0.50% · 02h-0.50% · 02h-0.50%02h0.01% · 03h0.01% · 03h0.01%03h0.06% · 04h0.06% · 04h0.06%04h0.76% · 05h0.76% · 05h0.76%05h-0.01% · 06h-0.01% · 06h-0.01%06h-0.92% · 07h-0.92% · 07h-0.92%07hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+-0.29%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 4BREADTH54% up · 46% down
13 up bars · 11 down · best 1.48% · worst -4.10% · typical |Δ| 0.588%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.64%)FINAL-2.64%MAX DD-4.81%RECOVERYONGOING · 20 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.27%UNDERWATER20/25 (80%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9736 · peak 1.0227 · range [0.9736, 1.0227]1.02270.9736break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0227UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -4.81% · moderate0%-4.81%▼ TROUGH -4.81%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -4.81%bar 6-25 · 20 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -4.81%)RECOVERYongoing · 20 barsTIME UNDER WATER80% of session · 20/25 bars
final equity 0.9736 (-2.64%) · max DD -4.81% · time-under-water 20/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-17.50 · σ=21.64UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -16.23 (+0.06σ vs μ)68.5334.270.00-34.27-68.53μ = -17.50-14.18-14.18-10.36-10.36-17.89-17.89-24.11-24.11-27.58-27.5814.3414.34-3.25-3.25-68.53-68.53-31.15-31.159.419.411.241.24-19.20-19.20-2.36-2.36-19.34-19.34-30.17-30.17-63.44-63.44-17.21-17.217.577.57-16.23-16.23v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -16.230 · range [-68.53, 14.34] · μ -17.497 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=81.8397 · σ=61.1145 · range [32.0209, 183.8260] · R²=0.628▼ FALLING -70.00%σ EXTREME 74.68%LAST 53.2771183.8260145.8747107.923569.972232.0209μ = 81.8397max 183.8260min 32.0209dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.63μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 53.28% · range [32.02%, 183.83%] · μ 81.84% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +8 / −11 (42% positive) · μ=-0.041 · σ=0.199CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST 0.073 (+0.57σ vs μ)0.3310.1660.000-0.166-0.331μ = -0.041-0.169-0.169-0.162-0.162-0.217-0.217-0.263-0.263-0.051-0.051-0.192-0.192-0.174-0.174-0.291-0.291-0.203-0.2030.2200.2200.2000.2000.1570.1570.2700.2700.2260.226-0.069-0.069-0.331-0.3310.0990.0990.1060.1060.0730.073v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.073 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
126.1938
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.6349
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4632
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.8199
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3810
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-1.2264
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2201
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (10 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6818
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0152
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.3113
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1897
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.601 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.02e-4 · top T=3.00h (18.0%) · top-3 cover 48.3%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)2.2e-41.7e-41.1e-45.5e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.34e-5 · 1.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.34e-5 · 1.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.03e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.03e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.88e-5 · 3.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.88e-5 · 3.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.81e-4 · 14.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.81e-4 · 14.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.20e-4 · 9.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.20e-4 · 9.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.90e-4 · 15.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.90e-4 · 15.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.01e-4 · 8.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.01e-4 · 8.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.21e-4 · 18.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.21e-4 · 18.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.45e-4 · 11.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.45e-4 · 11.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.21e-4 · 9.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.21e-4 · 9.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.78e-5 · 1.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.78e-5 · 1.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.81e-5 · 2.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.81e-5 · 2.3% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=3.00h#2T=4.00h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.00h (freq 0.333) · concentrates 18.0% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.227e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (4723 bars · effective 5249102 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 6.30× · g(f★) 0.008%/barparametric μ/σ² 5.95× · μ 0.003% · σ 0.21%
μ per barmean
0.003%
σ per barvol
0.21%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
6.30×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
5.95×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
3.15×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
1.57×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.01%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 1.49× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.002% · annualized Sharpe 22.94400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 1.49× · bootstrap from 4722 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.010
annualized 22.94
μ per barafter L
0.003%
σ per barafter L
0.31%
VaR 95%5%
0.10%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.43%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.6%
0.84×0.92×1.00×1.08×1.16×1.24×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 28.33σ ann 476% · Sortino 22.96 · n 4722 · ⚠ capped (n=4722 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%680%1360%2040%2720%3400%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)476.1%Ann. vol σ2833.4%Sharpe (ann)2295.6%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.2370.2620.2870.3110.3360.360t-4722t-3935t-3148t-2361t-1574t-787t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 07:56:01 UTC
Snapshot age
5.3s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 07:56:06 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
09d0026750685a6bdfc7572ef6aa373c9a3bc546f39e7ddbbebb3b4d4eb6c98d · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.4¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDUruguay67.8¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,672HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.12HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,725.3

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$1.23K
bid $898 · ask $331
Depth within 10bp
$5.01K
bid $2.96K · ask $2.05K
Depth within 50bp
$20.06K
bid $9.78K · ask $10.28K
Mid price
0.287850
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
4.9bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.157
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.301
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-APEX/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.2879924.94bp0.2880504FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.28850322.70bp0.28909015FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.28904441.50bp0.29019020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.2877633.04bp0.2876703FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.28732718.19bp0.28636017FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.28717023.62bp0.28621020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-APEX/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$360.75K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-APEX/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.052 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
13 / 11
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$171.49K
real volume
Sell weight
$154.57K
real volume
Net delta
$16.91K
buyers net
Imbalance
5.19%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
5.2%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-APEX/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 4.02% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-19 12:00:00Z5.0h0.302070→0.2899304.019%6
#22026-06-20 00:00:00Z3.0h0.292380→0.2881401.450%4
#32026-06-20 07:00:00Z0ms0.290550→0.2878800.919%1

/api/asset/hl-APEX/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 4,723 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.25M
Realized vol (annualised)
476.12%
σ per bar = 0.002078
Mean return (annualised)
13490.55%
μ per bar = 0.000026
Sharpe (rf=0)
28.33
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
15.34%
peak 0.34 → trough 0.29 over 4382 bars

/api/asset/hl-APEX/risk · same metrics, JSON